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More Fatalities in second half of year

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by High Plains Drifter, Jul 28, 2008.

  1. High Plains Drifter

    High Plains Drifter Guest

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    Just reading the RAAus CEO report from Lee Ungermann (RAAus mag, July 2008) and came across this interesting stastistic...

    Quote -

    "Traditionaly as our year unfolds we distinctly see four times as many fatal accidents occur in the second half of the year as the first half. Whilst this is curious to say the least, I write to make all of you aware of your flying practices so that we may prevent any loss of life"...



    Four times as many fatalities in the second half !!! ...Thats amazing.

    I wonder whats different ?

    - High Westerly winds and accociated turbulence perhaps ?

    - Pilots taking a winter flying break and loosing skills a problem ?

    - Spring making us older pilots feel young and invicible again ? ...but without the quick thinking reactions of youth.

    Be interested to know what others think...
     
  2. Yenn

    Yenn Well-Known Member

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    Statistics is my guess, so all we have to do is avoid becoming one.
     
  3. Spriteah

    Spriteah Well-Known Member

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    I suspected that it could well be:
    1. Skills a little rusty after winter
    2. Plane not maintained to acceptable standard
    3. Poor flash in old fuel creating less power

    So with that in mind. Do some taxi work. Practice circuits. Take an instructor with you.

    Give the plane an excellent thorough going over.

    Change out or at least top up fuel and expect PPP (Piss Poor Performance). If its a 2 stroke I'd service carby (oil build up in bowl and jets).

    Jim
     
  4. facthunter

    facthunter Well-Known Member

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    Statistics.

    I think we had a very good first half year accident-wise. It's easy to come off a low base and get that kind of result. All accidents are regretful. Don't interpret my statement as trivialising it, But we are talking statistics. Nev...
     
  5. farri

    farri Well-Known Member

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    Accidents.

    Can we realy change anyones destiny???.

    Frank.
     
  6. facthunter

    facthunter Well-Known Member

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    Are you a fatalist?

    Farri I am not. I've saved my skin, by being carefull to double-check things that I'm not sure of enough times to think it's a good idea. When you said " a miss is as good as a mile" outcomes-wise it might be, but situationally there is a breakdown of standards so the "miss" is a product of luck, so we are gambling in a sense, and you should only do that, if you can afford to lose.. Nev..
     
  7. brentc

    brentc Guest

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    It can't be anything more than coincidence. Whilst it may be historically true, I find that comment somewhat distasteful and irrelevant.

    Financial year or Calendar year?
     
  8. High Plains Drifter

    High Plains Drifter Guest

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    .............thats reference tooooooooo.. Nevs comment ? (facthunter)
     
  9. High Plains Drifter

    High Plains Drifter Guest

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    Nev, Looks like we need to find out how many years of 'statistics' Lee Ungermann was baseing his observation on.
     
  10. Spriteah

    Spriteah Well-Known Member

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    Wow,

    It's just statistics!!!! No it's not. It's an incident leading to fatality.

    Can we control it. Yes we can. I work in a petroleum where we used to have 600 'accidents' a year. We have recently achieved over 2 million man hours worked without an 'accident'.

    It is a mind set. Not fate. If someone at my work place says accidents will happen I want the off the site immediately. They are dangerous. Most 'accidents' can be determined. That means they are not acts of god but more so errors that could and can be avioded.

    Don't ever except it as a accident. If someone has to land in a hurry ask why. What could have been done to prevent the incident? Has maintence been correctly conducted? By a competent person? What failed and why?

    Most of us will now a pilot that has run out of fuel. How can that occur? Should they be pilots? How did we fail to train them? Lots of questions. Don't ever say it happens, that will lead to fatalities........:sad::help:

    Yours in safe flying. If we continue to have deaths in the sport we will be taken over by a government body. You will be banned from maintaining your craft. It will cost a lot more to fly.

    jim
     
  11. farri

    farri Well-Known Member

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    facthunter,
    I understand that clearly,we must try and learn from others mistakes so that we don`t repeat them however I still ask the question,"Can we realy change someones destiny"?

    As an instructor I thought about this a lot and I have seen many of the top guns of recreational aviation, killed,some were instructors also,did they all not know what they were doing or was it simply their fate and can we realy stop it?

    Frank.

    Ps. Luck is just a word,What does it realy mean?.
     
  12. High Plains Drifter

    High Plains Drifter Guest

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    .........sorta like that Irwin fella ?
     
  13. facthunter

    facthunter Well-Known Member

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    Luck.

    I don't know farri, but a lot of random things occurr out there and they don't affect everybody the same, nor could they.
    Luck- I suppose in a game of russian roulette, pulling the trigger and not having a bullet in that chamber. I would never play at russian roulette. Gotta be the ultimate mug's game. I'd rather look like a wimp and be alive than be a tough corpse with a newly ventilated skull.
    HPD. Funny that ,I have actually looked down and saw that I was swimming over a stingray of enormous size and I swear I swam without moving anything for the next 15 feet . I was terrified. Irwin was not afraid of animals, like me. Maybe I was lucky and he wasn't..Nev...
     
  14. High Plains Drifter

    High Plains Drifter Guest

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    Hmmm... in certain situations, to certain people, its like having $200,000 down on the table with a six shooter with one bullet. Do you take the high reward way with a one in six chance of looseing, ....or do you go home to moma ?


    Lifes a funny thing - the highest rewards come from the highest risk.
     
  15. Bernie

    Bernie Member

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    Hi Mum I'm home
     
  16. High Plains Drifter

    High Plains Drifter Guest

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    You added a bit to your post Nev -

    I think Irwin may have become a bit complacent, or He just was'nt aware of the dangers stingrays can present. Perhaps after dealing with crocodiles and sharks, the harmless looking rays were a bit ho-hum.

    I guess the 'safety' in any endevour is in knowing all the 'details' the best you can. Make your own risk assessement and if you find the risk/reward ratio is unacceptable, then I guess best to stay home.

    ....I do note though Nev, that you knew stingrays to be dangerous, yet you were still in the water - obviously an acceptable risk/return ratio :thumb_up:
     
  17. airsick

    airsick Guest

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    Maybe one of the reasons that we crash more in the latter half of the year is because we fly more? Throughout spring and summer the weather is more conducive to flying so we do it more. Although technically speaking there may indeed be more accidents during this period it may still be a misleading statistic.

    Assume we had 50 accidents in the first half of the year and 100 in the second. On the surface it appears the second half of the year is worse, much worse. But if we had 50 takeoffs and landings in the first half and 1000 in the second the story changes somewhat. This equates to 1 accident per takeoff and landing (or should I say per takeoff and crash?) and 1 accident per 10 takeoff and landing cycles respectively. So which half looks better now?

    A better way to look at it might be do consider how many accidents we have per takeoff/landing cycle, or per flown mile or some other metric. I think RAA collects information on takeoffs and landings so this may not be a hard one to use.

    If Lee has fallen into this trap (the misuse of a statistic) then he should be careful. Of course he may have fallen into this trap on purpose in order to get us to be more careful which isn't such a bad thing. In this respect a statistical white lie isn't so bad.
     
  18. pelorus32

    pelorus32 Active Member

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    Brent,

    what is your evidence for saying that it can't be anything more than a coincidence and what by the way is distasteful or irrelevant about it?

    More generally, there have been several comments in this thread about statistics and it's only statistics.

    I can tell you that it's never statistics. Each one of those fatal accidents is anything but a statistic. What it is is the unfortunate and unnecessary death of a living breathing person. That's not statistics that's tragic human cost.

    If, by pointing out an apparent pattern, Lee induces members to take greater care then that is a positive thing. Many patterns like this are hard to explain. It doesn't mean that the pattern doesn't exist. More people die in the month after their birthday than in any other month. How do you explain that? Is there much you can do about that? Probably not.

    When you fly however you can do lots to affect the outcome. If we didn't believe that we'd never fly. So if there is an apparent pattern then Lee has an obligation to point it out. It is up to each of us individually to think about whether that will change what we do when we fly.

    Farri, I'm afraid your question is much to metaphysical for a bloke like me. I'll have to meditate on the answer to that :nerd:

    Kind regards

    Mike
     
  19. farri

    farri Well-Known Member

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  20. Yenn

    Yenn Well-Known Member

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    If there are more accidents in the second half of the year, can anyne break down those statistics geographically. In Qld I would suggest that the winter is the best time for flying with less wind and less rain, so we should all be more current in the second half of the year. What we really need is to have a good hard look at the figures and see if there is anything we can learn from them.
    I would be interested in seeing dates and locations of accidents, as well as aircraft types and pilot experience set out for the last few years. Maybe if they were published in an acceptable format someone could learn something from them.
     

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