Guest Andys@coffs Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 Winning Lotto isn't luck, however it is a statistical possibility according to the people at Tatts! which is as ironic as you can get because the only people who will win lotto are those that believe in luck.....anyone else, self included, has purposely chosen to place themselves in a position where that statistical probabilitiy is exactly 0. of course those who actively believe in luck might look at an Aircraft owner and think to themselves "Lucky B#stard, how come he can have that" when again there was generally 0 luck involved. It is for these same reasons that luck should play no part in Aircraft and occupier safety! Andy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ahlocks Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 ....a statistic really means whatever the person creating it wants it to mean. ... Do all your flying in the first half of the year. It is 75% safer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest brentc Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 One of my university lecturers once said in the last lecture for the year: "Good luck with your exams, knowing that good luck comes to those who do the most study." I modified that for a yacht race briefing I gave: "Good luck tonight everyone, knowing that good luck comes to those with the most expensive boats." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motzartmerv Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 Statistically speaking, the average australian has less then 2 arms.. Thats a fact.. stats can be very missleading.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelorus32 Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 Focusing on "statistics" and arguing that they can mean whatever you want....etc, etc...misses the point. I'm not interested either in arguing the toss about what statistics are or aren't. What is important is that Lee has highlighted what he sees as a pattern. We don't need to know why this pattern occurs, we don't need to divine whether its greater per hour flown or per mantra hummed or whatever. That doesn't make a lot of difference to any of us individually. It's like a doctor telling me that with my condition 70% of people will be alive in 5 years therefore we should not bother with treatment. Those are the stats but they are not relevant to my position. What if I'm in the 30%? Lee has said a really simple thing, to paraphrase him: 4 times as many fatals occur in the second half of the year as the first. What that means for me is not analysis, creation of spreadsheets, calculation of statistical measures. What it means is that I will do what Flyer40 suggests: I'll focus even more intently on the risk management that I adopt in my flying. I will work hard to make sure that my flying actions are driven by the appropriate attitude. I will berate and chastise myself every time I let my standards slip or allow my margins for error to be eroded. I will actively support others in doing the safe thing....And at the end of it I hope that if each of us has done the same thing then Lee's pattern will vanish. It's about personal responsibility. I'm glad he raised this pattern for my consideration. I don't really care whether its stats or voodoo. Regards Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motzartmerv Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 So it would seem that the STATS have served a good purpose then hey?? hehe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
facthunter Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 True. Certainly the topic has come alive. As far as Lee putting it in front of us, I'm sure that he is utterly sincere . Would you guys like to go to the coronial inquests, and have to go through the gut wrenching personal details that he has to. I listened to Lee at Narromine and I was glad that I was there to hear it, and I have no doubt as to his sincerity and commitment.. Nev.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ahlocks Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 I'm glad he raised this pattern for my consideration. I don't really care whether its stats or voodoo. Regards Mike Absolutely concur Mike. And likewise for speculation about accidents (and this is not a personal dig at you). It raises issues and creates discussion and awareness of factors that a reader might not have ever considered before. Cheers! Steven B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yenn Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 You must admit that at times statistics can show what is happening, for example the clusters of cancer victims. The most important of course is that nearly 50% of the population are of below average intelligence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poteroo Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 Who was it who made the statement - There are lies, damned lies, and there are statistics. ? As a scientist of 40 years, it's been my experience that you can make a case for most things out of the numbers. It's a question of interpretation. happy days, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motzartmerv Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 exactly, look at the global warming swindle..hehe..point in case.. I saw a report on tv about the governments new greenhouse emmisions trading scheme. They are going to charge farmers for the methane produced by thier cows.. Comon, how far is this BS going to go.. I have a lot of farmer friends, and let me tell you, they are really struggling. So jack the price of fuel up, tax em on Farts...that'll really help the environment....fools i say... sorry to get off topic...but Damnnnnn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yenn Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 Motza. i think you are mistaken, the latest from the government is that they are not going to charge the graziers. Yet. Does anyone know what the government is really going to do, because I don't and I don't think Kevin Rudd does either, except that we will pay and politicians will collect. As far as global warming goes we had a cool summer and are now enduring a cold winter in Central Qld, the cloud bases have been low for most of the year and I have missed some flying because of cloud and rain, which is most unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motzartmerv Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 Oh, ok..i heard they were considering it... wich is bad enough.. cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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