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Jabiru7252

Plane crash in NT and one missing in NSW

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8 hours ago, facthunter said:

an area known for HAIL as are the areas around CASINO

 

Back when I was doing my navexs out of Archerfield, (1963/4), we had to do several over those border ranges and it was with some fear & trepidation that we set off on them in an ancient 172. At the time, all the Sydney - Brisbane RPT traffic used to use a 90DME Brisbane waypoint as their TOD, somewhere about Casino if I'm right. By the time the power came off, everyone, including the cabin crew, would be firmly strapped in for the the usual wild ride into Brissy. FH would probably remember those afternoon arrivals with trembling hands.  I read somewhere that the border ranges have one of the highest TS frequencies, and severity, anywhere on the planet?

 

As everyone has posted, we aviators seem to forget the lessons of the past, which have been well and truly taught, but not remembered.  History keeps repeating itself.   RIP.

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Owen will be missed as quiet Achiever and all around good guy good safe gyro pilot  I first meet him at teewah when he was teaching himself in a gyro and we were Teaching ourselfs   in a wheeler scout in the 80,s which is not recommended ,high risk teaching your self but had no two seat aircraft around then   . His poor wife will have her hole life turned up side down in 15 mins of poor judgment with weather i think he was the pax in the domed flight . Not sure what to say about the horrible out come to our unforgiving sport . He would be one of dozen people killed in the last 18 months flying in bad weather . I think we all tend to forget there is always a plan B before you get mixed up in bad weather .  Rip Owen 

 

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PM - Are you missing something to the right of the "Dunning-Kruger Aviation Edition" graph? Such as a major downwards curve related to complacency?

 

The reason I ask is - I am constantly seeing older aviators killed - people in their late 50's, 60's and 70's. Experienced aviators. The news articles are full of grieving friends and relatives saying things like;

 

"I can't understand it, he was a true professional! He's been doing this for 20/25/30/35 years!"

 

"There's no-one in our circle with piloting skills, who had more experience than him!"

 

"He never failed to check anything! He was a perfectionist!"

 

"I can't understand how this happened? He was never one to take risks!"

 

"I don't understand why he didn't turn back, when he could have?"

 

Does this sound familiar??

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Agreed. There seems to be a pattern like that. The red DH Dragon sticks in my mind.

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7 hours ago, pmccarthy said:

8E8C8BA0-D898-4D53-80FE-81B2CCC732F9.jpeg

I like this graph, but at 57 I have started to think how I can stay up near the top of curve as physical and cognitive skill inevitably deteriorate.  

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I suspect the concern with older pilots making up seemingly increasing numbers of statistics is a complex situation. 
 

Not least of which I suspect is that recreational and “minor” GA pilot average ages are going up and up. There are very few younger pilots coming into the scene so the percentage of older pilots is getting higher. 

 

More old pilots than young pilots flying means more crashes will involve old pilots. 
 

Which is not to say that old age doesn’t contribute to increased risk of crashing. It does. Motor vehicle stats show that despite making up less of the driver percentages,  older drivers are over-represented in total bingles. No reason to believe it would be different for flying. 
 

but it does mean the whole interpretation of crash stats associated with age is complex. 

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30 minutes ago, Jaba-who said:

I suspect the concern with older pilots making up seemingly increasing numbers of statistics is a complex situation. 
 

Not least of which I suspect is that recreational and “minor” GA pilot average ages are going up and up. There are very few younger pilots coming into the scene so the percentage of older pilots is getting higher. 

 

More old pilots than young pilots flying means more crashes will involve old pilots. 
 

Which is not to say that old age doesn’t contribute to increased risk of crashing. It does. Motor vehicle stats show that despite making up less of the driver percentages,  older drivers are over-represented in total bingles. No reason to believe it would be different for flying. 
 

but it does mean the whole interpretation of crash stats associated with age is complex. 

 So true 

 I started flying at age of 16 and now 45 was the youngest aircraft owner at my local field for over 22 years , and still the youngest hanger share holder .

 We had a club agm last year and though I was in the bingo hall most in late 60's, and mid 70's , So flying be coming a old people sport very quickly throw some factors high costs and bad press of the sport being dangerous . So with in 10 years the average pilot age will be mid 70,s so that just going to be a fact . I have spoke to local flying schools and 99 percent of there young students get there licence and that the last they ever see of them again .   

 

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Lot of variation in the performance capabilities of older people. It's not fair to generalise as there's a lot of different factors in play. Every person will reach a stage where they hang up their wings. I've known a few who should have but didn't/haven't.  I'm not sure that risk taking is more prominent with the more elderly. Maybe they are less inclined to be risk takers?. Human factors aspects affect all ages. Get home itis might affect a person with job deadlines more..  or to get a "school " aeroplane back, whereas if you have your own klunker , what's another day in Woop Woop? Loss of control in cloud (or smoke) continues to exact a steady toll. (UP and Down) are not so obvious when in cloud. and flying there (if you can) gets more difficult as you tire and get panicky/stressed.  Nev

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I reckon I qualify as an older pilot and age has affected me. I have no wish to die, nor am I afraid of dieing, I just hope it is not painfull.

I find it easier to cancel a flight or to turn back, but the greatest effect old age has on me is that it reduces my confidence.

There are things that I know I can do quite safely, but I bother about them until I actually get into doing them. Flying is one of those things, but sometimes I just have that feeling that it is a bit beyond me. A long distance flight can be viewed with trepidation, until I say to myself, just start it and if I still feel uncomfortable, then turn back. I haven't turned back yet and usually have a very enjoyable trip.

Just thinking back, I have turned back, due to weather and I feel I made the correct decision.

Someone mentioned the red DH. That was one of my turn back days. I was at Monto ready to leave because I didn't like the forecast weather when he arrived. I as safely hoe when he crashed due to flying into cloud.

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A couple of old flyers I knew had a few "Just WHAT am I doing up Here? Moments and then used the plane less and less. They didn't particularly muck things up but just stepped back a bit and questioned the whole thing and what bang for their Buck was being achieved. The counter argument is that the hardest part of doing things is to decide you are going to,  as you get older. Its dead easy to just say I can't be bothered. .  You do need an element of enthusiasm to put enough into it to make it happen "good". Nev

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1 hour ago, Yenn said:

Someone mentioned the red DH. That was one of my turn back days. I was at Monto ready to leave because I didn't like the forecast weather when he arrived.

Yes Yenn, I was there as well. We picked up a Kitfox and I flew it to Gayndah on Sunday. Monday I set out for Kingaroy but after an hour the ceiling started to come down. Put it on the trailer at Murgan and drove to Forbes to learn that the DH Dragon had gone in.

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Boy this convesation about age. Im 57 and just starting my aviation journey. Guess some got to live their dream early. Where some like me had to wait.

I hope Imas good or better than Im taught I guess.

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26 minutes ago, Hunsta said:

Boy this convesation about age. Im 57 and just starting my aviation journey. Guess some got to live their dream early. Where some like me had to wait.

I hope Imas good or better than Im taught I guess.

Hunsta, you're a spring chicken........go for it!

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I will be 70 next month & don't have an issue with confidence. I fly fairly conservatively & always check the conditions & forecast. Several people I knew were going to Evans Head but decided the Sunday forecast was not good enough as they had planned to camp. Most stayed away because of forecast weather. I was pretty sure it would be OK in the morning to early afternoon based on the forecasts, (Metars TAFs & Area as well as Windy & BOM). The flight over was beautiful apart from the relatively poor visibility but that has become the norm this year. When I decided to leave, a mate checked with Coffs & the Southerly had already turned up there but only about 20 knots at that stage. It was only a matter of time so we both left then & I had a 10-15 knot headwind back to South Grafton & on my overhead 1500 foot call noticed the sock was limp. I landed in calm conditions but just after I'd put the plane in the hangar the wind came up. Still quite flyable but that was just the start.  On Sunday it was howling according to others at the Aerodrome. It was doing the same at Evans Head

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On 13/01/2020 at 4:50 PM, Kyle Communications said:

Yes condolences to all the family. I actually met the pilot only about 2 months ago. he was visiting another Whittman owner in the hangar behind me at Ycab..It was a very nicely put together aircraft and he was a really nice guy to chat to. From memory he had his son with him.

 

I believe that we all should have ADSB...the obvious issue is the outrageous cost of the equipment which of course there is no excuse for except profiteering in a captured market. CASA and Air Services have allowed non certified units to be used but of course none are available because the manufacturers would have to discount within their own closed market. The units should be available at way less than half the cost of the certified units as well all know the only difference is a very expensive piece of paper that comes with exactly the same unit. The safety improvements are so much higher and better. They all say we should be as safe as you can be but when it comes to the crunch they all want to screw us over on price.

 

I remember when ADSB was first floated we (GA) were all going to be given subsidies to encourage fitment.

 

it would be nice to have ADSB instead of mode C. It would be nice to have a new radio with dual watch and certified GPS and automatic frequency display. It would be nice to have an AH, too. But then I wouldn’t be flying a seat of the pants, antique aeroplane the way they were meant to be flown.

 

i chuckled recently when YMEN ATC had to ask me to repeat aircraft type (and then the ICAO code) and even then referred to me as the white Cessna. I smiled when they expressed alarm because I slowed  to 50 knots on final to get the flaps out with a following aircraft catching up quickly...”can you go faster?” (No, but I can land right down the end of the runway). It was nice that they organised a “follow me” vehicle to escort me to the parking area after I told them I was the same age as the aeroplane. And I loved the “very nice and sounds nice, too” comment from tower as I was departing! 
 

Love old aeroplanes 💜

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23 hours ago, pmccarthy said:

Agreed. There seems to be a pattern like that. The red DH Dragon sticks in my mind.

Kiema . A beautiful aeroplane and a terrible loss of life in another weather scenario. The first option should always be staying over.

 

 

PS. I was born in 1944 which was the same year they started on BYM.

Edited by kaz3g

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1 hour ago, Hunsta said:

Boy this convesation about age. Im 57 and just starting my aviation journey. Guess some got to live their dream early. Where some like me had to wait.

I hope Imas good or better than Im taught I guess.

Me too,

I started at 55 because finally  I could afford it and the kids had grown up. Wish I had lived the dream when I was in my 20s.

I still get a rush when I push the throttle in and head down the runway and see the ground disappear below me.

It's the greatest privilege to be one of the few that can experience the joy. 

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I learnt when I was 23, four years before I got married. Three kids later I couldn't afford to educate the kids and fly too, so the licence lapsed when I was 41. Enjoyed the experience for 18 years. Now 75 and stone motherless broke.

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I had a hiatus too while I educated kids, bought them cars and married them off. Only way I can fly is because I’m still working full-time. Lucky my employer wants me. So many get dropped because they are more mature age than managers.

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There are some of us who somehow are destined to fly. For me it was probably from about age 3 or 4. Started with silly things like jumping off the garage roof with an umbrella. Fail. Then balsa gliders with plasticine on the nose for balance, paper kites, & models that flew. Add a 1cc engine & I began to dream that one day I'd fly. My first flight was in a Tiger Moth at age 7 courtesy of a friend of my Father who bought it for 50 quid after the war. Education, adolescence, girls & motorbikes intervened till I saw a hang glider fly from the Eiger in 1973. Back home in 76 & my aviation career began with Hang Gliding. 15 years later PPL. There have been periods of time out like when I learned to sail but I've always come back to flying. Cost has never been a consideration. It just meant the time between flights got extended. Finally at age 62 freshly retired I started to build my own aircraft. Finished at age 65 & it is one of the highlights of my life. I've had close calls, I've crashed, I've completely fuxed up but I've learned from every thing I've done. If I can keep this up I'll die happy.

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20 hours ago, onetrack said:

PM - Are you missing something to the right of the "Dunning-Kruger Aviation Edition" graph? Such as a major downwards curve related to complacency?

 

The reason I ask is - I am constantly seeing older aviators killed - people in their late 50's, 60's and 70's. Experienced aviators. The news articles are full of grieving friends and relatives saying things like;

 

"I can't understand it, he was a true professional! He's been doing this for 20/25/30/35 years!"

 

"There's no-one in our circle with piloting skills, who had more experience than him!"

 

"He never failed to check anything! He was a perfectionist!"

 

"I can't understand how this happened? He was never one to take risks!"

 

"I don't understand why he didn't turn back, when he could have?"

 

Does this sound familiar??

Could it be that the longer you do something, the higher the likelihood that mistakes will eventually be made or things go wrong?

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I believe it is simply a case of complacency, coupled with the onset of insidious bad habits, over many years of operation.

Perhaps some age-associated forgetfulness in a few cases, where items that should have been checked, on a checklist, weren't.

I seem to recall one fatality where the pilot failed to utilise a formal checklist, and this was noted as a common habit of his.

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9 hours ago, onetrack said:

...I seem to recall one fatality where the pilot failed to utilise a formal checklist, and this was noted as a common habit of his.

Good point, 1T. One of my flying mates is even older than me and has done the opposite.

For years he used mindfulness (or some similar approach) which served him well, but recently he detected a few signs of forgetfulness, so wisely decided to go back to following checklists. 

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Regarding repetition M61A1, Familiarity breeds contempt. Doing things the same way over and over is a situation where if you get out of the normal (learned ) sequence things start to come unstuck fast.  This where people usually omit an essential action like forgetting the wheels.  WE also tend to make doing any task as simple as possible ( Minimum effort) and this can also lead to cutting corners and not doing check lists..

  The function of a check list is subject to debate. Some use it as confirmation they have done the necessary actions .  Others use it as the PROMPT for the actions. I consider the first one best as you should do things at the APPROPRIATE PLACES  in the conduct of the flight..  In this respect a "slide" list is better than a written list.  Nev

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