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So have any of you Mexicans (Victorians)– smile people - made it across the border by air.


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So here is another perfect example of the fear-mongering of the politicians.

 

A 30 YEAR OLD VICTORIAN HAS DIED!

 

But I won't tell you if he had bronchial pneumonia, silicosis or anything that would have contributed to his death should he catch Covid, that's up to his family to release - it's secret squirrel stuff. Oh, and by the way, his family don't have access to a daily press conference, a dedicated media unit or an official Victorian Government Facebook account to get that info out there anyway...But A 30 YEAR OLD VICTORIAN HAS DIED!

 

Phuck me. :no no no:

The Victorian authorities are dealing with about 95% people who comprehend what the threat is and how to minimise it down to virtually zero, just like operating a sawmill without a guard; if you don't stp into it, it won't cut off your leg, but they also have to deal with 5% wankers who still believe only old people will die. This unfortunate person has supplied some timely evidence to the contrary.

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And what other conditions did he have? Without that information your statement is pointless, and just scaremongering.

Well perhaps you could take that up with DHHS, they're only medical people, but they could always have a stab at it.

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Even at the current death rate the number of deaths this year from COVID and influenza will probably struggle to surpass last years deaths from influenza.

Economic historians will discuss this current world wide destruction of economies for decades to come and wonder why we embarked on such a crazy path.

I am OK with sealing borders if it means sealing them, not creating all sorts of exemptions without rigorous policing to ensure compliance.

But to close down an entire economy - the CHO's, CMO's etc have no idea of what they have really done to tens of thousands of small (and large businesses). Our banking system is so dependent on mortgage funding that an Australia wide housing price slump may threaten the viability of the system. Remember most small businesses are funded on the back of mortgages on the owners homes. Even though you may not be in arrears, you can be asked by the bank to top up their security or pay down the mortgage as they have re-valued their security downwards. This killed many small businesses in the recession we had to have in the early 1990's and banks are far less connected with the communities they service today. In today's environment even payout of redundancy payments to staff may be enough to force the closure of businesses that are consider re-structuring.

These small businesses are the economic backbone of Australia. They will disappear silently and may not ever be replaced.

Add to this the fact that perhaps too much of our economy has been reliant on the fools paradise of tourism and overseas students. When the children and grandchildren of the CHO and CMO's cant get employment or housing I hope that they reflect on the choices they have made in the last months and have the courage to admit that there may have been a better way.

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Even at the current death rate the number of deaths this year from COVID and influenza will probably struggle to surpass last years deaths from influenza.

Economic historians will discuss this current world wide destruction of economies for decades to come and wonder why we embarked on such a crazy path.

I am OK with sealing borders if it means sealing them, not creating all sorts of exemptions without rigorous policing to ensure compliance.

But to close down an entire economy - the CHO's, CMO's etc have no idea of what they have really done to tens of thousands of small (and large businesses). Our banking system is so dependent on mortgage funding that an Australia wide housing price slump may threaten the viability of the system. Remember most small businesses are funded on the back of mortgages on the owners homes. Even though you may not be in arrears, you can be asked by the bank to top up their security or pay down the mortgage as they have re-valued their security downwards. This killed many small businesses in the recession we had to have in the early 1990's and banks are far less connected with the communities they service today. In today's environment even payout of redundancy payments to staff may be enough to force the closure of businesses that are consider re-structuring.

These small businesses are the economic backbone of Australia. They will disappear silently and may not ever be replaced.

Add to this the fact that perhaps too much of our economy has been reliant on the fools paradise of tourism and overseas students. When the children and grandchildren of the CHO and CMO's cant get employment or housing I hope that they reflect on the choices they have made in the last months and have the courage to admit that there may have been a better way.

 

Well said?

Australia used to live off the sheeps back, now we ARE the sheep!

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MODERATOR'S MESSAGE:

There has been a complaint that one poster has used a term that, if directed at an identified person, would be offensive. The term was used as a generalisation, so I have rejected the complainant's report.

 

However, reading today's postings in this thread, things are starting to get heated, which can lead to personal attacks. I remind all that rigorous debate is highly valued here, but at all times, play the ball, not the man.

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Agreed OME... it is getting heated... And it really just goes in circles. But since what was a light-hearted joke about those in Vic (Mexico) making it across any border by air since the re-lockdown has since morphed into [yet another] debate about the appropriateness of the lockdown. There is little to do with aviation so maybe mods should consider locking down this thread and transferring it to socialaustralia.com.au? I have noticed traffic there is really light lately... That said, I'll bite...

 

The main arguments against the lockdown seem to be:

  • It only affects the aged and those with co-morbid conditions. Not entirely true. There were young people with no identfied (after autopsy) co-morbid conditions.. these are reasonably rare, but tell that to the families of the victims. Of course, I agree we shouldn't put the world on hold for that alone. For the aged care facilities - they were in lock down but the infection still spread from carers; And being in an aged care facilitiy doesn't mean you're going to drop dead in a short time.. My stepfather was in one for about three years; my partner's grandmother was in one for about two.. There were many in these facilties that were there longer. Finally, co-morbid does not meen a condition that is life threatening nor life shortening. It simply means, " relating to or denoting a medical condition that co-occurs with another", or from wikipedia: " comorbidity is the presence of one or more additional conditions often co-occurring with a primary condition. " Bronchopneumonia is commonly cured - yes people die from it.. Many respiratory and other organ conditions may be chronic but not materially life shortening. I get the feeling to some people co-morbitiy means another condition that threatens or shortens life.. Also, wikipedia is not the deifnitive, but it states that co-morbitiy is not the primary condition.. Someone posted an April BBC article reporting the risk of COVID and the fact that they report a COVID death even if the co-morbid condition is the primary cause. It then went on to say that the primary cause is in the majority was COVID... And what it didn't say is that the numbers are adjusted up to 3 days later to cover late reports and corrections to the cause.
  • Only a small amount of the population get it, and it is only fatal in a small percentage. Well, I would agree, especially in Australia, only a small percentage get COVID. But this will mainly be because Australia went comparatively hard and fast saving a situation like that which played out in the US or the UK. This should give you a view of the current numbers in the US. We can see almosy 1.5% of the populaton have contracted it so far, and that almost 3.3% of those have died. Compare that to Australia, where you have 0.08 percent of the population and the fatality rate is up to 1.24%. The US is more densly populated, but US cities in sq miles are as large as ours and over 60% of the Aussie population are reside in the state capital cities so there is ample desnity for the virus to spread in our popualtion centres.. especially since entry into the country is probably 99.9% at these cities. The point is the US had at best patchy controls, Australia was a lot better... The stats speak for themselves. And of course, Aussies knew the healing properties of dunny paper.. Of yeah, look at the graph on the Aussie chart.. from a very small number of cases, a very quick increase in the daily rate..This would indicate the exponential infection rate (a curve would be shown on cumulative numbers). This shows the rate at which it will spread ifg ledt in mild check... Note, the US hosptial system couldn't deal with the crisis.. that may be a good indicator as to why their fatality rate is almost three times ours... And their infection rate is what times ours?
  • Thousands of people die per year from influenza, but we don't take these sorts of precautions: Yes, this is true. According to the WHO, up to 650,000 per year die from respiratry complications associated with the flu (so that is quite a lot more than those atrtrubuted directly to the flu, and this should atone for the co-morbitiy issue with COVD deaths). If you look at the Australia and the US charts above, you will see that globally we have exceed 692,000 deaths and this is only 8 months old.. Also, this doesn't include deaths from subsequent complications brought on by the disease. I think on all counts, it has already exceeded the death count with the flu... It won't be long until the flu has a bit to do to catchup. I looked up fatality rates for influenza and got a lot of sites that were convoluted, so couldn't be bothered to crystalise the numbers to get a comparison. But, note, there is no coordinated effort (other than a voluntary flu jab) to contain the flu; there is one for COVID. So numbers not quite like for like. The numbers for COVID-19 appear to bear a rather grim projection should some serious action not be taken.
  • This is an overreaction that will wreck the economy. This is a prediction, and there is probably some evidence we can draw from the previous SARS epidemic and maybe even the Spanish Flu (incidentally which did not originate in Spain, but was the worst affected as they didn't implement the lockdown measures of the day). The UK is talking about a V-shaped recovery - i.e. quick to decline, but quick to recover. This article from a couple of weeks ago talks to it.. However, there is concern it won't be V shaped.. I agree.. it will be a shallower curve on the upside because people are tentative and jobs have been lost, companies will have closed, etc. People (in the UK) don't frequent pubs, cafes, etc at anywhere near the rate the did pre-COVID. This month, the UK government will foot 1/2 the bill of all in-restaurant/cafe/pub meals.. and so far no one I know has taken up the offer. People will spend less while the virus is perceived to the a threat. They will not go out as much, etc. The longer the threat, the slower will be a recovery. Also, the more people who die, the more of the economy you lose (except for funeral directors and cemetries/crematoriums). Yes, there is public borrowing that will have to be paid back. yes there are SMEs that will close their doors forever (mine is probably one of those). But at the other end of it, new SMEs will grow (hopefully a new one for me), the government issued debt is the cheapest you can get at the moment, and allowing the virus to persist will keep economic activity suppressed and require higher borrowing and more SME failures than there should be and recovery will take a lot longer. etc.
  • The collateral damage (e.g. mental health) will be much higher than the lives it saves: This one has merit.. but as we don't know how many lives are being saved by the lockdown versus how much more collateral damage is happening, it is very hard to make a true judgement. The main concerns I hear of are mental health deteriorration leading to suicide, and the fact that there are much lower rates of cancer diagnosis meaning many cancers may go undetected that can be saved. This is a real issue where to be honest, a balance has to be found and the lack of numbers that can be causal make it difficult to assess. However, should COVD rates increase, even without a complete rip through the community, there will undoubtedly be a lot of mental anguish and possible suicides as a result. Also, the ability to treat other medical conditions will be severly affected because COVID wil ltake up so much medical resources.. so I am on the fence on this one in the absence of data
  • Each state is doing their own thing: Yep - I get it.. that is the law of the country (and that of the UK, too). And I agree with it.. It is compeltely stuffed to have different, albeit similar approaches for the one country (or in the case of the UK and Europe, I would even say one land mass) as no virus really gives a toss about artifical borders put up by man. Also, it is whacky that I can't go to either side of a line on a map based solely on there being a line, despite all the factors being nearly identical across the line and there being no additional risk... It is nuts.. but that does not say the measures being taken shouldn't be being taken... Yep.. they should at least be coordinated and consistent. Also, if it were Australia wide, we have to accept that in areas there is a breakout (such as Melbourne and now Sydney looks like it has a cluster), then localised lockdowns under a Federal response would be appropriate, would it not?
  • Duing lockdown, we should be able to go flying: If we have our own plane at our own or a local airstrip (say within a 5km radius) and we go flying ourselves or with someone in the immediate household, yes I agree. But as Turbs pointed out, there are too many rec activities that may or may not fall into the safe category, naming all those that are allowed or those that are not (and for certain activities the conditions under which they are or are not) is just not practical. And as we have seen, too many will try it on if they think they can. Even in the case of flying, say you are within 5k of Moorabbin.. and you want to rent a plane from RVAC? Probably shouldn't allow that because the risk of contact will be too high.. Now what about going to Redcliffe or some other country airport with a moderate amount of activity, or even low, but shared (e.g. rentals, syndicates, etc). You can see the line gets blurred and it is very difficult to enforce. Yes, the state government has allowed fishing (maintaining social distancing) and some other things.. can't recall.. Maybe Dan likes fishing.. or maybe they have looked at what the majority of people do. I understand the frustration of being needlessly grounded.. I know folks outside of Melbourne can probably go flying... but this was a real issue day 1 or the original lockdown.
  • Multiculturism is increasing the spread because they won't comply: If this is the case, it still doesn't stop the requirement for the lockdown and it is an error to conflate the two. Anyway, I understand there are those of different religious and cultural backgrounds have been breaching lockdown. However, there are also a lot of caucasion Aussies doing it, too. Bunnings' Karen, the couple who drove to Orbost or wherever and were infected; and the infamous Wodonga Burger Run...
    Melbourne has shown just how difficult it is to keep people isolated, so unless they are forcibly quarantined (which goes against Melbourne's Woke culture), you have virtually zero hope of containing this, especially since some of the people there will see it as a personal challenge, and some will want to keep it going because of the cash benefits with the very low risk of dying. The laws will only affect honest people.
    - Seriously? From the above, I think a natural human trait is not to be kept isolated and try it on... BTW, if you are taking your news from Sky or other "right wing" press, maybe you want to watch in full about the Melbourne based South Sudanese treatment by the such press here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZCfpvP1TSg:367
  • Other miscellaneous topics: The three main ones are.. "for the mathematically illiterate..", "... well said"., and something like they'll never listen and won't change their mind. Well. I think the above prose (of which I have spent too much time on to be honest) shows that at least I listen to the arguments - both sides! My mind hasn't been changed because I like to back up opinion (or more accurately, intuition) with facts in these cases. There is no one absolute right way to handle this... There isn't really a precedent in Australia nor most of the developed world in handling this in modern times. So, it has to be a balancing act - and a difficult one at that. However, from all the data the countries who are taking the harder line are medically and economically recovering faster than those who aren't. As for the "mathematically illiterate", let me know which statistical technique you would like. Hist Sims will be difficult, We could use tobit or Beta -logit probability methods;' monte-carlo simulations (path or non-path dependent), even Bayes Theorem if you like... probably path dependent monte carlo or Bayes is the most applicable. But the simple ratios and maths are already illuminating. Now, I would never attempt these moreadvanced techniques with medical data as I have no idea of the data issues/smoothing techniques, bias, etc. But that is what the professional modellers do and while I can guarantee they won't get it 100% right, so far the comaprison between countries points to them getting it largely right (which any statistical method is about, which is why VCE maths for a while changed from pure and applied to change and approximation). And we certainly don't rely on questionable sources of statistical analysis against government (or in some of the above, wikipedia - which is not so reputable but at least can be corrected).

 

Yes, we could isolate oldies (of which a few of us are on here, which would mean no flying) and those with known co-morbid conditions. This may slow the fatality rate, but it ignores that even that isolation requires some form of interaction, that the virus will still continue to spread, herd immunity is not provem, there will be spillover into quarantine, people will shun Aus because they don't want to get it because it will still be in the community with Aus, we won't go out as much or do the discretionary things as much because we don't want to tempt fate, etc. Sorry fellas, at this stage, you haven't convinced me it is a good idea not to go for lockdowns and eradication or live with hard lockdowns for clusters as they form.. yet.. Of course, an anti-viral inhibitor or decent viral vaccination may change that... Give us good evidence and you will at least change my mind. Of course, with reputable data to show the medical and economic effects won't be worse inthe long run will change my mind, too.

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It only affects the aged and those with co-morbid conditions.

Back around March "over 80s" was being circulated as the risk group and that was updates as cases including babies died overseas. A lot of the partying and under 50s transmissions seem to be based on the belief that C-19 is like the flu and won't hurt them and that shows up on social media. "Co-Morbity" crept into discussions as an argument against restrictions and lock downs and assumes the medical profession don't know the difference. You've mentioned the adjustments to numbers to get final figures right, I've mention a relative of mine whose death certificate gave the actual cause of death plus an ancillary condition, and in Australia, if there's any doubt a Coroner can step in and determine the exact death. Having said that, with Australia's very low death rate (our Deputy CMO at the start of the epidemic before plans and actions were put together preducted a minimum 50,000 and maximum 150,000 Australian death toll) it's academic.

 

Thousands of people die per year from influenza, but we don't take these sorts of precautions

I looked at the statistics and I think in 2017 there were a reasonable number, but in most other years deaths were negligible, but it wouldn't surprise me that after we have cleaned up our hygiene habits, (distancing, hand sanitising, packaging, processing, more mask using) that we will have low flu rates for years to come. Other than that it's a dead argument - a bit like pointing out to the cop that another motorist is speeding.

 

This is an overreaction that will wreck the economy

It was Dr Michael Ryan, Executive Director, WHO Emergencies Program who said something like Rule 1 in an Epidemic is to go early and go hard. Don't worry about making mistakes because the end cost of not making tough decisions is overwhelmingly greater than any mistake.

I saw one analysis of Australia's debt that indicated we are nowhere near the red ink of some of our past crises, and the dire forecasts of unemplyment after the C-19 crisis is still seem to be hovering about the 11% mark, which was routine in past decades. Of course there are vast differences in the community where some people are making millions right now and others are in the process of losing everything. The hard decision is to find a balance between losing family members and having income.

 

The collateral damage (e.g. mental health) will be much higher than the lives it saves

I'm dealing with a case every day, and the treament centres (rehab etc) have closed down to prevent C-19 virus so these people are floating in space. It's a flawed area of health in any case. I was staggered to learn that Queensland Health have 12 clinics in the Bowen Basin - there are hundreds of thousands of patients needing help, but a system that can't provide it.

Millions have been allocated to mental health finding through the crisis, but but the calmness of isolation seems to be helping rather than hindering.

 

Each state is doing their own thing

The six sovereign States and the Commonwealth have worked together well, aided by the National Cabinet which is mirrored by the

Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC), consisting the State and Territory Chief Health Officers and Commonwealth Chief Medical Officer has worked well in terms of a co-ordiniated approach when necessary and a local approach when necessary, and an ability to learn from any mistakes.

This wasn't surprising given the disaster of the 1918-20 Spanish flu disaster where goverment didn't really get involved.

 

Duing lockdown, we should be able to go flying

This is being decided on a State by State basis and hour by hour basis by the CHOs; it's been straightforward, but with tousands of different activities needing to be altered on the bases of a disease flare up or die down its not surprising that there's not enough detail to suit particpants in a particuar sector.

 

Multiculturism is increasing the spread because they won't comply

City of Greater Dandenong has over 150 Nationalities. They also have a low socio-economic base.

By the end of Wave 1 and through the subsequent relaxed period the City only reached 3 active cases.

In Wave 2 it has jumper to arund 100, still lower than surrounding Cities, the bulk of them in Aged Care facilities and one factory.

Some people have an agenda; other people continue to listen to them.

 

As you say, most of this discussion doesn't have anything to do with flying.

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Advice from a serious researcher in the field on Tuesday is that the Melbourne outbreak is driven by a new mutation that makes it the most infectious strain on the planet. The lockdown is thus for national and global reasons.

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But, Flightrite that's not the point. A 30 YEAR OLD DIED FROM COVID-19! HE WAS 30! SO ALL YOUNG PEOPLE ARE AT RISK, DON'T YOU SEE!

 

Alright, pisstake's over. Here's a source backing up Flightrite's statement, you'll need to scroll down to 1.38pm...

 

Australia's 'tragic' youngest death had comorbidities: CMO

Responding to a reporter's question, Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly has said the man in his 30s who died from coronavirus in Victoria this week did have some comorbidities.

"I'm not going to talk about an individual case, but only to say ... all deaths are tragic and the death of a young person, young male in this case, is also tragic," he said. "There were some comorbidities, but it does actually stress what I said before: this is not only an old person's disease. This is a disease for all of us and whilst most people only have asymptomatic or mild cases, occasionally they're severe and occasionally it can lead to death."

 

 

"There were some co-morbidities...." some, hey? So more than one? Two maybe? Even perhaps three?

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Most of the medicos are pretty much agreed. I'd rather heed them than people who are losing a few dollars and think they are not going to be affected and therefore don't care if a few oldies die. We are pretty new in this stuff unlike places like Singapore and South Korea that know much more but still have had breakdowns that have been exposed. It's a fast learning process, from a low base. Latest is that a lot of medical people are catching it so better masks may be required and more careful interacting..I don't see much hysteria here, but a few" News" outlets specialise in it. Often their TAKE on it bears NO resemblance to what actually happened on the unedited LIVE event. Medical evidence is that lifelong organ damage is possible in even young people while others may be without symptoms and still very contagious at a very young age.. Nev

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No one is saying that younger people are most at risk, unless they do have a comorbidity. A comorbidity does not imply the someone is near to death and covid merely pushed them across the line a few weeks early. As a society we give health care to older people and people who have accidents or disease. We generally don't write them off to save a few bucks. Generally the comorbidities we are talking about are heart disease, blood pressure problems, diabetes type 1 and 2. These are people who are not necessarily on the way out in the near future. We are also talking about people who are having or who have had radiotherapy or chemo. I know some of you love to go through reports of covid deaths looking for any hint they may have had an underlying condition or are being or who have been treated for cancer or perhaps have other immune deficiencies.

 

People are obsessed with the death rate but seem unconcerned with the rate of complications which can be quite devastating for some. We also know that the virus will mutate and this could make it better or worse, so the demographics could change.

 

Today we have 901 health workers out of the game due to being infected just from doing their job. This is a rise of 101 from the previous day. This number of health worker infections is what we get when we are in lockdown and taking other precautions. Imagine what those numbers would be if we did not take any precautions. The health system is not just a matter of numbers of beds but also staff to utilize these beds.

 

The fact that older people have less life ahead of them does not mean we don't provide them with life extending medical care even if it costs us. We could save the taxpayer a lot if we just denied health care to older people.

 

It is of unfortunate that, having had early success we did dropped the ball and this will impact the economy more than if we had done it right the first time. I invite you to compare our unemployment figure with that of NZ.

 

I am sympathetic to those who are struggling for financial or psychological reasons but I don't see many options. Whenever I ask for alternate scenarios or for examples of how other countries have handled it differently I rarely get an answer and if I do these countries don't turn out to be doing so well.

 

 

We have been kicking this subject around for a while now and it appears that "it's not really a problem" people seem to be few in number. Really it comes down to accepting that your views are minority ones and getting on with in the best way you can is probably the best option

 

I cant see any scenario whereby we just get back to normal and let it rip. Even if we did our economy would still struggle and indeed probably even more.

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Flightright what exactly is it you find funny. 911 health workers infected doing their job? People with health issues? Sorry but I don't really get what it is that amuses you perhaps you could be specific. I am always happy to have a rigorous factual debate and I am happy to consider any rigorous evidence but an emoji is not a debating point.

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When people trend to be losing the logical side of the argument, they resort to mockery and other forms of baseless ridicule or irrelevance to try and affect the debate. Remember Trump in his initiak days? How many Journos did he call a "bad, bad person" without actually answering the questions of providing credible facts? He does it today. We all mock trump for this, but some people exhibit the same tendencies.

 

As I mentioned, point us to the credible evidence that suggests otherwise - until then - I would suggest it is those who can't that are not willing to see reason or change their mind..

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When people trend to be losing the logical side of the argument, they resort to mockery and other forms of baseless ridicule or irrelevance to try and affect the debate.

I think this sums it up...

anti-masker-logic-flaw.jpg

Is this to prove your own point?

BTW......That is not the same logic, not even close.

I'm not anti-mask for the record, just anti-pointless memes.

I have not seen one pro-lockdown post here that actually addresses any of the points made by those that think there could be an alternative.

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Is this to prove your own point?

BTW......That is not the same logic, not even close.

I'm not anti-mask for the record, just anti-pointless memes.

I have not seen one pro-lockdown post here that actually addresses any of the points made by those that think there could be an alternative.

 

Again save ya breath mate, I don't bother answering these types of believers, they are on a single minded mission with blinkers on?

Edited by Flightrite
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Again save ya breath mate, I don't bother answering these types of believers, they are on a single minded mission with blinkers on?

I know...It's the frustration of watching a slow motion train wreck, with people in the carriages cheering it on.

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Time to stop this rubbish. The thread title is enough and it continued on from there. It should have been on the OFF topic but it's gone round and round using insults and misuse of the funny emoticon to serious and fulsome contributions which is a massive put down rather than an answer the Facts provided deserved. This is NOT debate. It's just a rotten slanging match on one of the most serious ,matters we are likely to face. People are entitled to factual points but when they are talking/URGING of not listening to the other view in a purely insulting way it's TIME to call the standard as well below what we should have here. Nev

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