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octave

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Posts posted by octave

  1. 10 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

    Out of the frying pan, into the fire Octave. 

     

    Turbo I am not particularly attracted to fringe hypothesis. It is difficult to find serious archeologists that accept the ancient light bulb myth.  But I would be happy to peruse any academic source.

  2. Of course, we can't rule out alien visitors or parallel universes.   My problem is that often we start out with an observation that is not immediately understandable. Because it is not immediately understandable it doesn't mean we should rush to the other end of the list of possibilities.

     

    Videos that are posted fall into a few different categories. There are those that are obviously CGI.  My son is a 3D animator and owns his own company.  As a teenager, he made a very convincing video where 3-D objects were added to real footage (compositing). In his case he was using 3D Studio Max software and later Maya.   I remember he made a short Star Wars parody video.   Most people do reject these over-the-top videos.

     

    Then there are videos or photos that are misinterpreted. Things like Bokeh or other artifacts. Sometimes it is a case of neglecting to take into account the relative movements between the camera and the object.

     

     Here is an illustration of that.  the maker of this video is Mick West a retired PC games artist and skeptic, although he is quite open about the fact that we shouldn't just rule things out (or in). This is an analysis of the so-called gimbal video filmed from a navy aircraft. It is a bit of a time investment *21 minutes) but interesting. Apart from the UFO/UAP angle, it is a great insight into how these cameras work. 

     

     

    The other thing that makes me skeptical is the whole idea that alien spacecraft have been regular visitors for many years.  I struggle to find a reason why this would be worthwhile. If these visitations are real then they have been going on long enough for us to be reasonably confident that they are not trying to wipe us out or harm us.   If they are merely observing us to learn something then it makes you wonder why the process has not been completed by now and what it is that they hope to learn from a relatively primitive civilisation, at least technologically speaking. 

     

    Crashed alien craft also strikes me as being unlikely. To be able to travel vast distances only to crash once inside the atmosphere seems odd to me.

     

    If the government is in possession of alien technology they don't seem to have learned much from it.  I would have expected much greater innovation in aeronautics and space travel.

     

    I don't for the most part doubt that many observers are genuine. We humans are not necessarily great at being eyewitnesses, we know this from interviews with witnesses to plane crashes.

     

     

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  3. 5 hours ago, turboplanner said:

    Clearly the few million Melbourne viewers of Channel 9's news last night haven't broken into "meteor!, meteor!" cries or "surreal" watching the extended video footage or social media would have been alive.

    I am not quite sure what you mean by this. My point was about photographic evidence.    To put it perhaps more clearly I am saying this:

     

    The number of cameras in the community has increased massively in recent years.

    The quality of those cameras has improved markedly.

    I would expect that photographic evidence would be more likely than in the past.

     

    I brought the space junk in Melbourne as an example of an event that in the past may never have been photographed.   This event happened around midnight when the majority of people were asleep yet there are several reasonable-quality pictures from different vantage points.  

     

    When I see a video of an alleged UFO or UAP and if it seems remarkable, my first question is did anyone else video it? 

     

    To make it clear I  believe that it is almost certain that life exists elsewhere in the universe.  I also believe that due to the immense size of the universe and the distances involved and given the cosmic speed limit that the odds of meeting are low but not zero.

     

     

     

     

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  4. 3 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

    That was because it was space junk coming out of orbit predictably and visible for a long time, the rest was hypothesis. It would be a good idea to read the reports.

    It was unexpected and in fact, it was not initially known to be space junk.   https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/science/space/ootw-space-space-junk-streaks-across-australian-sky-as-bright-fireball 

     

    "Assumed, at first glance, to be a meteor"

     

    "Thomas Toose, a farmer in Creswick, Victoria, northwest of Melbourne, called the sight "surreal" and told Storyful it "was massive and lasted about 20 seconds."

     

     

    I am open-minded on the subject however I have yet to a picture or footage that does not have a more mundane explanation.

     

     

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  5. 1 minute ago, spacesailor said:

    I have a ' phone-camera ' , but when photographing wild-life, they're gone before the pics in the bag ,

    My point was that many people managed to photograph the space junk last night whether with phone cameras or otherwise. 

     

     https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CHZO_enAU915AU915&sxsrf=AB5stBjJXwt5pWNdSCFbWj9ogQk-Bn5Qow:1691474496831&q=melbourne+space+junk&tbm=isch&source=lnms&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=2ahUKEwjCzZ7EscyAAxV3yDgGHfzoCo0Q0pQJegQICxAB&biw=2133&bih=1025&dpr=0.9#imgrc=Fzlx0K5N-GUxwM

     

     

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  6. My question would be where are the good-quality pictures or video? in an age where we all carry a reasonable camera (in our phone) around with us.   Whilst it is true that it may be difficult for most people to think to photograph or video a short-lived event out of the huge population you would think that there would be more than a few grainy ill-defined pictures.

     

    last night in Melbourne some space junk re-entered the atmosphere.  This event was unexpected and short-lived yet there were loads of fairly sharp photos and videos.

     

    https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CHZO_enAU915AU915&sxsrf=AB5stBjJXwt5pWNdSCFbWj9ogQk-Bn5Qow:1691474496831&q=melbourne+space+junk&tbm=isch&source=lnms&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=2ahUKEwjCzZ7EscyAAxV3yDgGHfzoCo0Q0pQJegQICxAB&biw=2133&bih=1025&dpr=0.9#imgrc=4HIvsWCRm7s16M

     

    It is reasonable to believe that in the past photographic evidence would be rare but today with good-quality phone cameras, dash cams CCTV, etc. it is hard to understand why there doesn't seem to be any reasonable quality images.

     

     

     

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  7. 21 minutes ago, red750 said:

    everyone decries them as fake or CGI.

    Not without reason. Often there are faults. In the video posted earlier where the creature crosses in front of vehicles with their headlights on I would expect a pronounced shadow.  Since almost everyone carries a camera on their phone I would expect n there to be more than one version.

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  8. I found myself accidentally at a talk by this guy.    I went to see the film "Miracle on the Hudson".  Mike Smith is also the owner of the Sun Theatre in Yarraville.  He is responsible for saving and restoring this amazing Art Deco cinema.    Before I could enter the cinema to watch this film I had to wait for a school group to exit. The school group had just finished listening to a talk and slide show with Michael Smith.  When the audience entered the theatre he was starting to pack up his slide show but I think we convinced him to do a quick run-through of his presentation before the film. This was extra enjoyable because it was unexpected.

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  9. 13 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

    Octave sometimes it pays to read a post before you start typing.

    I posted, in quotation marks information I received from an Industry professional for the benefit of people interested in multi unit complexes and to a degree street charging.

     

    He has the qualifications to inspect the buildings and do the calculations, and is entitled to his, professional, opinions.

     

    Turbs I do a lot of reading even past the headlines.   Saying a professional has given his or her opinion is a little vague.       I am more than happy to read any factual articles you care to post and I will even read past the headloines.

  10. 28 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

    “It’s a huge problem, just cannot happen. This is the problem with politicians and ignorant narrative.

     

     

    If this is true (and it isn't) then it will very soo become evident. 

     

    32 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

    The major issue these people haven’t understood is there is no electrical power capacity in these existing buildings to charge these cars.

     

    How does it work in Norway?  Yes Norway has a lot of Hydro however the problems with their existing electrical distribution system must be somewhat similar to ours.    The number of EVs in Norway has increased massively in the last few years. Presumably they have not rebuilt their whole network of poles and wires in such a short time. 

     

     

    43 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

    Unless they put delay start timers on these chargers it will cause an instant power overload on the electrical infrastructure in the building, but timers still don’t solve the problem.

     

    We are not talking about crude timers on chargers. It is a case of chargers that talk to the grid.    

     

     

    Are buildings and carparks burning down in Norway?

     

    https://risefr.no/media/publikasjoner/upload/2020/report-2020-30-charging-of-electric-cars-in-parking-garages.pdf

     

     

    1 hour ago, turboplanner said:

    The second problem is that there are no individual power circuits in basement car parks that come from each unit’s switchboard so that the power can be charged against each consumers power usage.

    A charger connected to a common source is not really different from any other public charger.   The charging is paid for using an app. and a third party such as Vista Vista Charge. This is being done now.  https://vpt.com.au/blog/guide-to-smart-ev-charging-in-strata-car-parking/

     

     

     

     

    No one is saying that we could go 100% EV tomorrow.   This is for many reasons not possible. The gird of today evolves to suit our needs.   

     

    Most of the network problems you have pointed out should also apply to other countries that are ahead of us with EV adoption.   We are not on the leading edge of change in this country.  

     

    I am sure I wont convince you of anything.   You say it "can't work" if you are correct the next few years will support your view.  EVs will begin to disappear overseas and here the adoption will slow and stop.  I suspect that EV adoption will continue and increase. I suspect new houses apartments and buildings will built with EV charging in mind. I suspect the grid will evolve along with this change to support and also utilize EV batteries. 

    Time will tell.  We should revisit this subject every few years and see which way the trend is going.   

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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  11. 1 hour ago, turboplanner said:

    After what appears to be a frantic WikiSearch you reassured us all that Councils could charge EV from the footpath.

     

    No. my point was that infrastructure is adapting.    As you point out eVs are a tiny portion of the fleet and it would be ridiculous to over capitalize or get too far ahead of the curve.   A network of petrol stations or sealed roads did not predate the motor car.  Not such a frantic wikisearch as you condescendingly put it.  I am quite aware of what is happening with the EV space and quite involved with our local council.  Your article about people travelling across the US was no doubt something you searched for either frantically or not. Actually I am familiar with that article  There are plenty of critiques about the mistakes they made and the suggestion was that it was designed to fail.      

     

    The Wall Street Journal Made A "Trip" By EV...And It Just Proved How Clueless People Are About EVs..

     

     

     

     

    1 hour ago, turboplanner said:

    Now we get this BS; you can't be half pregnant Octave.

     

     

    I am not sure why you believe I am posting BS here.    The streets are probably 25 years plus away from being purely populated by EVs.     With most manufacturers announcing phase out times in the early 30s we will see plenty of ICE vehicles around into the 40s (if they are still economical].

     

    1 hour ago, turboplanner said:

    My Council with around 75,000 cars, a high percentage parked on the streets, announced it has 3 charging points at the Council offices.

     I am not sure what area you live in but it is somewhat surprising that there are only 3 chargers locally.  I have 6 within 2km of me also interestingly in the nearby industrial area I noticed a couple of private chargers belonging to businesses.   There is a wool business, not quite sure what it does (grading or bailing or something).  I stopped for a chat with a fellow because I wanted to ask about his particular EV.  It seems that he and a couple of other workers pay a small weekly amount to charge their cars whilst  working. The building also has rooftop solar.   Seems like a nice arrangement.

     

    2 hours ago, turboplanner said:

    We got the old story about your short trip in New Zealand with the lesiurely lunch, but Australian conditions are more like the US>

    You are being a little contemptuous here. Auckland to Wellington is about 650KM  much of it through steep hilly country.  He has toured the South Island (extremely hilly)   Certainly in Australia we do have vast distances and for the near term although people are doing epic trips it is more of an enthusiast project.  I most certainly would not suggest that anyone needing to do this kind of driving should get an EV at this point in time.    

     

    Your council area may only have 3 charging points at this time.   Geelong has 11 public sites each with multiple outlets plus another number of Chargeshare (where an individual makes their home charger available for a price)

     

    If as we get towards the 2030s EVs are not filling the bill then ICE vehicle sales will soar and EV sales decline.  I believe if this happens the manufacturers and governments will step back from EVs.   

     

    Petrol cars will not be totally disappearing anytime soon.   

     

    Turbs we are discussing ideas here there is no need for talk of BS and frantic wikisearches and the condescending "old short New Zealand"    I am more than happy for us to politely disagree with each other and to discuss ideas.

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  12. 17 minutes ago, tillmanr said:

    You would then need to restrict parking beside these installations to only EVs to be effective. I am sure this would find wide acceptance in parking poor inner suburbs, not.

     There are problems  real and perceived. I am not convinced that a gradual change towards EVs represent a greater challenge than the adoption of the early motor vehicle.  Petrol stations sprang up because it became impractical for the masses to buy their fuel from a pharmacy.   What people tend to do is to extrapolate forward to a time where most people drive an EV but they imagine this situation with todays infrastructure.  When I was a child my family got to the point that they could afford to have to phone connected.  This involved much trenching and conduit running up walls.  When I built my house the done thing was to get the house prewired for telephone. Nowadays you would not build a house without provision for internet.

     

    Whilst it is true that some premises may pose difficulties for EV charging there are many years before this problem needs to be solved in every case.

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  13. 5 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

    The position of the charging point is going to become very important with street parking, needing to be on the kerb side, given that Councils are likely to pounce on any cable crossing a footpath as a trip hazard, and road authorities will fine people for the roadside connection I saw. That should lead to kerbside charging poles as part of parking meters or in much the same position.

     

    These issues are being addressed   All charged up: Councils push for kerbside car charging         Now you can charge your EV from the footpath

     

     

     

     

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  14.  

    11 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

    I could be wrong, I was looking at the back of the car and the cable so it could have been another make; the position of LH Rear was correct though.

     

    It looks like the BEV version is on the front but the Hybrid may be on the right.

     

     

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  15. 9 minutes ago, Ian said:

    he issue in the near term isn't reserves its pollution and its impact on climate. If we get another la nina next year that should raise a few eyebrows we might see some talk of a locked in la nina.

    I totally agree. The point of me introducing the finite resource argument is that those who don't accept anthropomorphic climate change still have to deal with the fact after squeeze the last drop of crude oil out of the earth we are still left with no oil for the chemical industries and a need to power our cars and jets in another way. 

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  16. 1 hour ago, turboplanner said:

    Aside from overnight top ups by short commuters which can use the house single phase, if you need to be out all day/highway travelling at 100 km/hr etc. to get a faster rate depends on whether your home has 3 phase power (several thousand dollars, some quoted $7,500) the street has the capacity, the nearest transformer has the capacity. There are now some reasonable figures quoted in kWH requirements for time from zero to full charge, 80% to full charge, top up etc. so at least people know when the vehicle is going to be immobile from 5 to 20 hours. 

    Rooftop solar needs to be compatible with the demand. Hopefully your figures and system may offer all round charging flexibility without too much change.

     

     

    I did make the point that this would suit me but probably would not suit others. With most of my trips being on the grid and also an asset.  A fleet owner, lets say a courier company doing short trips could charge in the early hours and when they return to the depot can be used to sell some of their remaining electricity back to the grid when the early peak hits. This is already being done overseas and there are trials running here.  New V2G chargers progress Flinders University’s ‘virtual battery’ vision                The Value of The V2G Business Model For an EV Fleet Manager

     

    Whilst it is early days and it is probably easy to come up with doubt it is good that people are working on innovation.      

     

    1 hour ago, turboplanner said:

    I'd put Australia around the middle, but so many lies are being told that it's not worth extracting the figures.

    22nd as far as I can see or just above Japan. To be fare there are differences in our use due to long distances some have to travel.    

     

    If we get towards the 2030s and EV technology cant do what the people want it to do then they will vote with their wallets.   ICE cars sales will increase whilst ICE cars are still sold and EV will sales decrease. The people will also vote accordingly.   I don't really see any great point of debate here.

     

    I think we are in exciting times.    In the past the grid was a one way street, today it is getting smarter with electricity flowing to the house or business premises or car or truck and the ability for it to flow the other way.  

     

    1 hour ago, turboplanner said:

    These days an ICE uses a fraction of the fuel per kilometre the 1979 models used, and while we passed Peak Oil around 2000 we found a lot more we didn't know about, so we can now go until someone does come up with a working, economic alternative.

    I agree ICE technology has improved markedly since the 70s.  Technology tends to do this.   Those improvements were incremental.   The  early Wright brothers aircraft were a bit of a joke in terms of transporting people over a long distance.   The progress that led to the airliners of today was also incremental,   We didn't look at each development and say we should wait until we can build a 747.

     

     Oil is a fantastic resource that can be used for so many useful things.   Burning it if we can help it seems to be the worst thing we can do with it.

     

    My expectation is that the next 20 years of technologic development will be of the same magnitude at least as the last 20 years.  I am expecting the cars and airliners of the mid century to be vast improvements of what we have now.   I can be hard to imagine, we tend to be influenced by the "end of history" fallacy.     There is a quote by Neil Armstrong that appeals to me.   "Science has not yet mastered prophecy. We predict too much for the next year and yet far too little for the next 10."

     

     

     

     

     

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  17. 20 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

    Tesla announced a power steering Recall this morning, so they are not immune from things going wrong,

    Conveniently this is a software update and can be done over the air. 

     

    21 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

    and they've just announced they aren't going to be able to finish this year's production.

    I haven't seen that announcement 

    The prediction is that Tesla will deliver 500k in Q4.  (I tend to follow these things because I own shares in Tesla]  Time will tell whether the target will be met.

     

    Tesla Model 3 Maintenance Costs

     

    Those who don't trust the technology are not being compelled at least in the foreseeable future to buy an EV.   Most car companies have announced plans to cease ICE production in around 10 years.   Most people here will be able to buy a shiny new ICE vehicle maintain it in to the future. 

     

    I am interested in my next vehicle being EV for several reasons.  I have driven 2 EV vehicles (over a couple of weeks)  and they were both delightful to drive.   As I have mentioned before I produce around 2 MWh of excess electricity from my roof.  I could buy a house battery or I could put that money towards an EV with V2L which could act as a house battery. 

     

    For me it makes sense.  At this stage for others it probably doesn't, these folks need not buy an EV.     

     

    If people regard EVs as some kind of experiment that will succeed or fail then we are not on the leading edge of that experiment.  Our adoption of EVs in this country s one of the slowest in the word for various reasons.   If EVs are a ridiculous failure then they will begin to decline in those countries that have the highest percentage of EVs like Norway.

     

    The prediction is that we have 47 years of oil reserves (at current consumption).  One way or the other petrol/diesel/jet fuel will run out.   The thing we should not do is to wait for that point and then scratch our heads and say "what should we do now?"     Technology advances because people try many ideas and those ideas are tested in the real world.  I am not necessarily a fan of biofuels and I don't see them as being a big part of the solution but it is great that people are working on these technologies.     

     

    Continuing as we are is not an option, oil reserves are finite.

     

     

     

     

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  18. i have come to this discussion late but I have a few points.

     

    I don't think it is correct that Macron is talking about banning private jets but rather providing disincentive via the tax system.  Is France going to ban private jets completely?

     

     

    "Private jets have been a source of outrage lately, as the city-hopping exploits of celebrities and billionaires come to light. A jet belonging to Steven Spielberg burned around €117,000 worth of fuel in the two months since June, according to flight tracking data."

     

     

    "Despite urgent calls from campaigners, France is unlikely to impose a total ban on jets.

    Government spokesman Olivier Véran reaffirmed today that it is "obviously not a question of banning them", given their important role in the economy. But “the French should not have to feel as if it’s always the same people who are being asked to make efforts".

    "Heavy taxation and restrictions are the most likely measures to be introduced. Companies could also be forced to publish details on their use of corporate aircraft, for greater transparency."

     

     Even for those who do not accept the science of anthropogenic climate change or other pollutants surely the squandering of a finite resource is worthy of attention.

     

    3 hours ago, onetrack said:

    I keep hearing about how the cost of batteries and EV's is going to reduce.

    I am pretty sure that the  price per KWh  lithium-ion batteries has  dropped substantially.     https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline  Happy to consider evidence to the contrary though.

     

    There was some comment on recharge times for EVs.    The problem often with these debates is that both side tend to quote best or worst case scenarios.

     

    To address the worst case scenario of charging a Tesla on a 3Kw charger over 20 hours.  For regular daily use the average user does not fill the battery full and then drive until it is empty. My son plugs his Tesla in when he gets home from work (not every day) He tries to keep the battery between 40% and 80%. His 7.5Kw smart charger does this during the cheap time overnight (good for him and good for the grid)   The power in Wellington NZ where he lives is on average 82.1% renewable  Energy in New Zealand 2022   We have done a road trip with him Auckland to wellington with one pleasant stop for lunch and a charge.

     

    My next car will be EV when the time is right.   I produce from my rooftop solar about 2 Mwh more than I need and  I also would like a house battery but at the moment the figures dont quite stack up.  What would make sense is an EV with bidirectional charging  V2L of V2G.  This could both serve as transport and a house battery. Given my pattern of usage this would be the rational thing to do.   

     

    When comparing EV to ICE is important to consider all the inputs from drilling for oil or mining lithium and cobalt etc. to the daily use and disposal/recycling  at end of life (note once you have burnt petrol it is gone for ever).    On my daily bike ride I ride past the refinery in Geelong.   It is interesting to note that on the facility there is a rather large sub station which I gather is to provide power for the process of turning crude oil into petrol. On top of that there is the fact that the crude oil comes from an ocean going tanker that has travelled a considerable distance (powered by fossil fuels.)  After processing the fuel is pumped into road tankers that distribute the petrol far and wide (driven by fossil fuels)

     

    I will leave it to others to detail the path that leads to an EV but at least the raw materials can be reused unlike fuels that are burnt. 

    I think a lot of animosity towards EVs is based on the idea that people believe they will be forced to buy an EV before they want to.  Car makers are still intending to manufacture ICE vehicles until the mid 2030s and then a mid 30s car will have a 10 year plus life although I suspect ICE cars will be for the wealthy enthusiasts. Also people sometimes have anxiety towards change. 

     

    Circling back to exec jets, how about this.  We tax the Spielberg types to make their exorbitant "flea hop" trips and use that money to advance jet fuels to make them cleaner and more sustainable. Doesn't everyone want us to develop clean fuel that is not in limited supply.   Airlines are already using small amounts of biofuels Biofuels are Taking Off with the Airline Industry On Board

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