Chris SS

They were carrying fuel for an 11 hour flight. I reckon they would have had ferry tanks and been way over gross. Two up with normal fuel the 421 will still climb.

It’s the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon. This explains why ‘there have been so many crashes’ since the worst year on record, which was 1972.

My money is on structural breakup.

From the ADSB data he was stable at 9500.  30 seconds later he was at 9300' at 550fpm descent. 25 seconds later he was at 9600 but already at a 3700fpm descent!  I suspect that a sudden updraft pushed them above 9600, followed by a strong pitch down to correct, and a spar or tail failure followed by instant incapacitation.  19 seconds later the plane was through 7300 descending at 9800fpm.

It will be interesting to see where the control surfaces are.

The lesson to be learned from early analysis - be weary of convective weather systems and dark cumulus!

It would be interesting to note the position of the mixture levers.

There is a post on Facebook where a witness alleges that the aircraft suffered a tail strike followed by a go-around with a steep pitch up and a wing drop.  This post does not serve to speculate on the cause of this specific accident, but rather to discuss that this is a very plausible and common occurrence during a late go-around in high powered singles - especially Cirri.

Let's be mindful of the need to apply firm forward pressure on the stick during the go around. Your priority should be to keep the nose down and get the speed up before initiating the climb.  Remember - the trim will want to fight you.

17 hours ago, Mike Gearon said:

Apparently this is an RV problem.

It’s not. It’s a pilot problem. Thousands of RVs fly thousands of landings every day. If you treat them properly this doesn’t happen.

The biggest killer of RV nosewheels is too much speed on final, followed by thinking you’re finished landing before the aeroplane has come to a complete stop.

Arguably the best aviation weekend I have ever had in Australia. Truly amazing.

Flying and camping. At least 5 aircraft in our group from YBAF.

There is a Youtube video simulation of the accident based on ADSB data.  It looks from the simulation as though he lost the engine late on crosswind at 700ft.  It looks like he turned back to mainland and almost made it - but sadly missed it only just….

Keeping the gear up would have given him that extra bit of glide distance - I wonder at what stage he selected gear down?  

My heart goes out to the families affected by this tragedy.  Is there something in this that we can learn?  Maybe circuits over water should be conducted closer to land? Keep gear up when over water?

And that makes it even worse…

Winning at lawn darts?

Very interesting. Thank you for sharing.

I’m looking forward to it!

Based on the video and the 3 screenshots, I’m don’t think it was a spin, I think that it was a spiral.  One of the indicators of a spin is a low and stable airspeed - the airspeed in this video is increasing.

The clever people say that it is not possible to ‘sense’ level without sight - and that’s what they lost when they entered cloud with no horizon - either actual or artificial.

If you haven’t already - read ‘178 seconds to live’.   

Height, Speed and Luck... pick any two.

Old Koreelah - Computer says No... I can’t send you a message.

Please text me the contact details to zero for fife too, too wun six, zero wun too. (spelling intentional to confuse the bots)

Thank you for your replies. 800m requirement because I’ll have a heavy load in a retract... not the perfect bush plane. Paradise Station looks amazing - but probably only 5 min closer than Inverell by road. At this stage the winner looks like Old Koreelah’s contact - message inbound soon.

Does anyone know of a runway longer than 800m between Inverell, Armidale and Glen Innes in NSW? I need to be in that area for one night next week and would be very grateful if I could use a private strip somewhere near X.

Thanks BP. I tracked the (ex) owner of the property who sadly reported that the runway now sports a brand new fence - right through the middle!

Thanks Tim

Does anyone know who owns the strip 5nm south of Leyburn, QLD? It‘s 18.5NM SW of Clifton and runs north-south parallel to the Toowoomba Karara Rd.

I have been a staunch and vocal supporter of OzRunways for many years.

I too have asked them numerous times to share data with Avplan so that we can ALL see each other.  Sadly, their ‘commercial decision’ flies in the face of the safety that we require, and that they very easily could provide. 

Avplan have indicated their willingness to work with Ozrunways on many an occasion - an attitude that I admire.

Unless I understand why their ‘commercial decision’ is more important than our safety, I will not be renewing my subscription this year.

The event organiser has NOT paid for the Bushcat. 

Straddie and Archer Falls

There is definitely one aircraft that’ll do all of that.