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RFS air tanker feared crashed in NSW


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Ok, stepping back a second, if it was CFIT, there will be a lot of the CVR to hear.

 

They were flying at 125 kts.  So not exactly "just under mac 1".

 

Sure things will (did) go sideways, but not that fast from the start.

 

Yeah, once a wing hits the ground:  all over red rover.

 

But WHY (how) did they get into that configuration?

 

The press report says the lead plane flew through but was not followed out of the drop zone. So I want to know whether the lead plane flew a course that the Herc could not follow. Hence my earlier query about whether the lead planes are provided by the same operator (and would be fully conversant with Herc perfomance). 

 

 

 

That is something which does need following up.

 

 

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https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2020/aair/ao-2020-007/      

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I am interested in the role of the lead plane. Wikipedia says:

 

The Lead Plane function directs the activities of the airtankers by both verbal target descriptions and by physically leading the airtankers on the drop run. The leadplane is typically referred to as a "Bird Dog" in Canada or "Supervision" aircraft in Australia. The O-2 Skymaster, Cessna 310 and OV-10 Bronco have been used as spotter and lead plane platforms.

 

The press report says the lead plane flew through but was not followed out of the drop zone. So I want to know whether the lead plane flew a course that the Herc could not follow. Hence my earlier query about whether the lead planes are provided by the same operator (and would be fully conversant with Herc perfomance). 

 

The lead aircraft have been working with all the LAT's since September, I think they would have an idea of the capabilities of all aircraft.

 

Not quite true (at least in Qld) I have a number of friends in FB operations flying tractors and most loads contain retardant I’m not sure if this is different in NSW and VIC although I have a mate flying out of Cooma at the moment and the day of the accident he was carrying retardant also said it was a shit day the tractors can deal with most conditions but the 130 may not

 

As I said retardant mainly used on bush, most fires have been bush this season. I would say 75% of my drops (SEAT) would have been retardant this year

 

 

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Is it common for a spotter aircraft to fly the drop path?

 

When I watched the aircraft involved in fire drops in Tasmania last Feb, the spotter stayed about 1500 feet above terrain. I never saw it anywhere near terrain or fire  It was up to the jet, herc,  and helicopters to come over us at low level as they lined up to drop about 5klm past us.

 

 

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That video shows the aircraft clearly established in a climbing turn after the drop then appears to disappear into smoke, looks to have then lost several hundred feet and impacted. With 2 very experienced pilots they would have been established on instruments and should have continued to climb.

 

Looking at it again there appears to be a very steep pitch up after the load was released. Normally you get a pitch up only while the load is going out, not after. The aircraft also appears to initiate a turn left at the same time. The aircraft impact site looked as though it hit wings level. 

 

 

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Well, it's sad to see that video, knowing that 3 good men are dying there - but it's good to see that a video exists of the crash, that must be a big help to the investigators. 

 

One can only conclude that uncommanded power rollback happened in the thick smoke and hot air - or they weren't on instruments and became disoriented quickly in the smoke (and dust).

 

My money is on the uncommanded power rollback, the U.S. military has had 71 reported incidents of UPR, and the Allisons sensitivity to excessive heat, and pollutants, in the engine turbine assemblies, seriously affecting turbine condition and performance, was noted 33 years ago.

 

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed-martin/aero/documents/sustainment/csc/service-news/sn-mag-v11-v20/V14N1.pdf

 

 

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Slightly "Off topic":

 

I believe I am subscribed to this thread.

 

The "notify me on replies" is ticked.

 

Ok, I get e-mails - which is good - but when I come to the site, I am now not seeing a notification indicator.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

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What the hell is happening?

 

Yesterday the crash video appeared then was taken down. Is this YouTube allowing censorship or something else?

 

Then today a new member who joined in the night has sent me a pm about accessing the video and saying that I " Litespeed" have a fuller version, that ATSB want from me. And that they are upset I published it.

 

What the f...

 

The person claims they are from Severe Weather Australia and their news director.

 

This is fishy as hell.

 

If they are actual media- why are they members?

 

Why me, I have no video and did not post one.

 

Did anyone else get this pm?

 

Are we now to be targeted for having an opinion?

 

His name is Daniel Shaw.

 

 

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The video and impact scar which is very narrow scaled from the nearby fire truck suggest the aircraft had rolled near vertical. Aerodynamic stall due turbulence perhaps.  

 

 

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I thought Nev might have commented on the feasability of the suggestion in post #56, ie. whether the P3 Orions about to be retired could be converted to firebombers.

 

 

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The ATSB investigation has been initiated, it is in the "evidence collection" phase. If any safety critical issues with the C-130 are found in the investigation, the information will be disseminated immediately.

 

There was speculation that the CVR would "be read" last Sunday. Either the speculation was ill-founded, or the CVR is seriously damaged, or the transcript is proving difficult to interpret.

 

Perhaps the speculation did not consider the fact it takes time to assemble a group of experts to transcribe the conversations, and to define precisely what is being said.

 

Many CVR conversations in fatal crashes have taken quite some time to figure out who is speaking, and what they are actually saying. One hopes this CVR provides some pointers as to what went wrong.

 

There's no indication in the ATSB report, as to when there will be any update, on what has been found.

 

https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2020/aair/ao-2020-007/

 

 

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 Background CVR noises are often  just as important as voiced words. Engines winding down etc. It could take a while to do it thoroughly. . They match it all to a basic timeframe which may or may not have a lot of data in it. or accurate reference points.  Nev 

 

 

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Was this the video taken down??????

 

 

https://www.airlive.net/alert-footage-emerging-of-the-c-130-water-tanker-crash-in-australia-killing-the-three-us-firefighters-on-board/?fbclid=IwAR1jpGgIhzBFAUiS66g3xKN08Pni7p3_WAYuoPAj98MGPcBGN09P3MEPw-g

 

not claiming to be an expert, but in this video, have the pilots made the transition from VFR to IFR when they entered the smoke???????

 

 

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The C-130 is last visible at a steady height in the smoke at 22 secs in - at 29 secs it would have already hit the ground - at 30 secs, the fireball appears. That's just 7 seconds from normal flight, to hitting the terrain.

 

If anything was going wrong mechanically, or power-wise, they had very little time to figure it out. Maybe there was a lag in transition from VFR to IFR, and in that short time, spatial disorientation set in.

 

However, these guys were reportedly highly skilled pilots, so my money is on some kind of engine failure, or partial failure.

 

 

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 blancolirio's/Juan Browne break down.

 

 

Notice his first question what where they doing dropping in these conditions its institutional problem why where they even using tanker's in these conditions???

 

I can answer that. For the media so the government can pretend they where doing something useful.

 

 

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somatogravic illusion. An optical illusion that can result in spatial disorientation. A rapid acceleration during takeoff can create an illusion of being in a nose-up attitude. ... See also oculogravic illusion. When head is level or when aircraft is flying at constant speed, sensing hairs are erect.

 

 

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 These guys would be aware  of that effect as It's been around and taught of for a long time and I doubt there was much acceleration upon which the part of  the effect is based.  It's not an OPTICAL  illusion. Being able to see outside over rides it.. Some wave effect from the strong winds on the hills may be an  issue..  The chap giving the talk seems pretty with it.  Blames conditions as I read  it. Nev

 

 

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The cases I have read about involve acceleration and a pitch up creating an illusion of over pitching, to which they have responded by pushing fwd on the controls. 

 

I’m not saying it’s what happened, but just wondering if they were adding power and pulling up at the moment they went IMC  whether it could have been a factor. 

 

Yes, it’s been known and taught for decades, but so has everything else that’s been killing pilots. 

 

Food for thought, that’s all.

 

One of the investigations I read about involving  a DC3 taking off on a dark night somewhere near Melbourne. Believing he was over pitching, the pilot pushing down slightly, then had trouble reaching full power. In the daylight it could be seen that the prop tips had been running through the mud flats for some time prior to the resulting crash. 

 

 

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