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14 hours ago, Marty_d said:

54% of the new car market in Norway.  We don't need design / test / tool / production, the vehicles are already available, just that existing manufacturers see the Australian market as too difficult due to lack of progressive policy in the area.

The trouble is Marty not everyone lives in a smallish place in Australia like you do.  For me to drive the 300km  to the farm towing a trailer drop off some gear then head back...can not be done...and some times we dont have any power when we get there due to being on a SWER line...so that dirty coal fired power station up the road is no good to us. I would have to start my diesel generator to try to charge the car long enough for the return trip home.

 

EV cars are only practical for small travel distances and just carrying passengers...until there is a mega major shift in performance...it wont happen in this country. Most of us travel too far and too wide

 

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KGW and others, yes. We can do hydrogen fuel cells. We can do ammonia. We can do fast EV’s, we can do self driving cars. We can do electric aircraft and people carrying drones. Yes! You are correct!

Mostly because Australia lacks the forward-thinking of the Nordic nations. Norway owns it’s mineral wealth and now has over a trillion dollars in national savings. Australia has a national debt of aro

I havent seen anything so far that gives me a woody at all...sorry its soft all the time. There is currently nothing available for the 45K I paid for my new Triton ute to be able to tow my 10x5 2 tonn

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Re the comparisons with Norway - it's all too easy to compare apples to oranges. Norway has a very substantial amount of hydropower generation, supported financially and legislatively, by their Govt.

Norway has 1690 hydro power plants producing 88% of their electric power production. They have mountainous terrain with waterfalls pouring out of every crevice - and landowners are encouraged to harvest this power via hydro installations.

 

In addition, Norways Govt is taking an extreme position in relation to EV vehicles, banning ICE vehicles and offering major tax incentives to go with EV vehicles.

These incentives are enormous - everything from no import taxes, no road taxes, free parking, half-cost toll road and ferry trips, 50% tax rate reduction for company EV's - the list goes on and on.

 

https://energifaktanorge.no/en/norsk-energiforsyning/kraftproduksjon/

 

https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-policy/

 

The policies of the Norwegian Govt and the power generation sources of Norway can't be easily translated to many other countries - particularly Australia.

In addition, Australia's terrain and temperatures are at the opposite end of Norways terrain and temperatures.

So it's easy to say Norway is leading the world, and showing the way in EV's - but they have many peculiarly-specific conditions and laws in Norway, that make that so.

 

 

 

Edited by onetrack
sp....
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Norway has hydro. Australia has sun. Size does not matter but government attitude does. A 600km round trip will be a doddle in the future. It almost is now. With 5-10 minute charging there is bound to be a future charging station in that 300km. Our pathetic federal government is now complaining that ICE vehicles are to be discontinued rather than looking positively at the possibilities. The average car in Australia travels 13,300 km a year, most of it in urban areas. 90% of the population lives in urban areas with half of the population living in just 3 cities.. EVs even at the limited range of todays models will suit probably 75% of the population.

 

As I said previously 1000km range, 5-10 minute charging and 1 million km battery life are already here. Electric B doubles will be traversing the east coast by 2022. The largest selling car in the UK in June 2021 is the Tesla 3. That includes ICE cars not just EVS. The price is coming down dramatically. BYD have just announced its 7 seat people mover the E6 will sell in Australia for $A40,000, $6,000 cheaper that a Kia Carnival.

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I havent seen anything so far that gives me a woody at all...sorry its soft all the time. There is currently nothing available for the 45K I paid for my new Triton ute to be able to tow my 10x5 2 tonne capable trailer up to my farm and back. There is a DC charger in Childers but why would I want to line up with the others waiting to get my 10 min charge that doesnt even come close to recharging the battery properly. A charger at the farm????  sorry i would need to buy a new transformer thats on the pole to be able to take the charge current

 

I have no doubt it will all come because it must... but I think you will find 2022....ya dreaming

 

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if we are to believe in the warming climate then whatever it costs to mitigate ie renewable energy, then to save the earth it is what it is, for my money hydrogen is the most obvious choice and no longer to fill that petrol all that starts the change is a stroke of the pen

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Best investment today: legacy oil production, distribution and refining. Best personal investment - state of the art diesel and petrol vehicles, period. The EV killer is logistics - world production of copper, rare earths(for magnets), lithium, plus electricity production and distribution. Do the maths. 

 

‘’This stuff works small scale and for rich people. European rich cities like Scandinavian ones.

 

‘’Now try and imagine places like South Sydney, Footscray, Watts(LA), the Banliues around Paris, electric cars and infrastructure for poor people? It’s not going to happen yet. Better yet, take the TV series “bush mechanics” and imagine an EV version.

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Sorry all you dinosaurs. It is already happening and at an accelerating rate. Internal combustion engines will be confined to the historical dustbin by 2050. Some will still be around with collectors but fuel will be almost impossible to get. Hydrogen fuel celled and battery powered vehicles will be standard. This all happened just 120 years ago when many people refused to accept horseless carriages.

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As I said it has to happen...but to get it going within the next 5 years is fantasy..just the refueling infrastructure for hydrogen and the current cost of making it also the battery tech is still no where near it should be and wont be for quite a while. As one other said before..there is already massive copper shortages and it has gone up almost 75%

We cant even get a bloody decent road system in place certainly here in Qld. As far as charging goes the infrastructure for the power grid be it coal or renewable cant even handle the solar input charging coming from houses...how the hell is it going to handle the charge rates and power required to charge all these EV vehicles. 

I read an article recently about what needed to happen to a largist building....not a skyscraper just a big block of units the upgrades required to just the internal power system and mains input to the house was enormous just to provide a charger for half the parking spaces let alone the distribution network out in the street from the power authority...and that was just one building...not a suburb.

 

Nah I will probably be pushing up daisies long before all this even gets close

 

Sorry KG but this is the reality. I spent half my life in the electrical distribution industry and I know its limitations

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Kyle Communications said:

As I said it has to happen...but to get it going within the next 5 years is fantasy..just the refueling infrastructure for hydrogen and the current cost of making it also the battery tech is still no where near it should be and wont be for quite a while. As one other said before..there is already massive copper shortages and it has gone up almost 75%

We cant even get a bloody decent road system in place certainly here in Qld. As far as charging goes the infrastructure for the power grid be it coal or renewable cant even handle the solar input charging coming from houses...how the hell is it going to handle the charge rates and power required to charge all these EV vehicles. 

I read an article recently about what needed to happen to a largist building....not a skyscraper just a big block of units the upgrades required to just the internal power system and mains input to the house was enormous just to provide a charger for half the parking spaces let alone the distribution network out in the street from the power authority...and that was just one building...not a suburb.

 

Nah I will probably be pushing up daisies long before all this even gets close

 

Sorry KG but this is the reality. I spent half my life in the electrical distribution industry and I know its limitations

 

 

Kyle you wont convince those out in fairy land, its not for them to understand:-) With so many power outages Elect simply cant be relied upon! Melbs last storm was a great EG! There will always be a need for hydrocarbon consumption transport, trucks, trains ships etc.

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Of course it's possible to start by 2035. What this means is that the sale of NEW need to be electric. UK are starting soemthing similar by 2030 all new vehicles have to be electric. This doesn't meant the bowser suddenly dries up. If someone buys a petrol car in UK in 2029, there will have to be infrastructure to support it for at least 10 - 15 years if not longer. Even then there will always be fuel available for the old vintage cars etc. Maybe pricey but will be available. Just as film for cameras still exists today. Same for light aircraft engines. It will take a while for any transition to happen. Suffice it to say that this will be a problem our young kids may have to deal withj in a few decades time.

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5 hours ago, onetrack said:

…The policies of the Norwegian Govt and the power generation sources of Norway can't be easily translated to many other countries - particularly Australia...

Mostly because Australia lacks the forward-thinking of the Nordic nations. Norway owns it’s mineral wealth and now has over a trillion dollars in national savings. Australia has a national debt of around a trillion dollars, despite having massive mineral wealth.

 

The difference: Whitlam’s government was crucified for trying to get control of our mineral wealth, while Norway’s government managed it.

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31 minutes ago, flyingbaz said:

Of course it's possible to start by 2035. What this means is that the sale of NEW need to be electric. UK are starting soemthing similar by 2030 all new vehicles have to be electric. This doesn't meant the bowser suddenly dries up. If someone buys a petrol car in UK in 2029, there will have to be infrastructure to support it for at least 10 - 15 years if not longer. Even then there will always be fuel available for the old vintage cars etc. Maybe pricey but will be available. Just as film for cameras still exists today. Same for light aircraft engines. It will take a while for any transition to happen. Suffice it to say that this will be a problem our young kids may have to deal withj in a few decades time.

This was the statement from the academics: "Brand new petrol-powered cars could be illegal by 2035". That means a rollout from 2035 of a million new vehicles per year  in thousands of configurations. I outlined earlier the problem with the lead time to achieve that. 2050 would be more realistic. As you say the existing vehicles will go on for as long as they want. The Australian Government is not likely to take people's cars off them.

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This country has the ability to tell every other nation to get stuffed...we have everything here to make our our stuff ..as Old K says we lack the will to do it...too much namby pamby woke crap here

 

Whitlam could see the writing on the wall even though he was a raging commo but he had the foresight but was chopped off at the knees for it. Mind you I am not a lefty at all but he had the right idea.

All these others just want to keep themselves in the obscene wages and super schemes they are in and pander to the minority..who ever yells the loudest they go to not what is actually required to be done

 

This country has a lot of stuff that needs to be fixed

 

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1 minute ago, Kyle Communications said:

This country has the ability to tell every other nation to get stuffed...we have everything here to make our our stuff ..as Old K says we lack the will to do it...too much namby pamby woke crap here

 

Whitlam could see the writing on the wall even though he was a raging commo but he had the foresight but was chopped off at the knees for it. Mind you I am not a lefty at all but he had the right idea.

All these other just want to keep themselves in the obscenen wages and super scheemes they are in and pander to the minority..who ever yells the loudest they go to not what is actually required to be done

 

This country has a lot of stuff that needs to be fixed

 

Kyle yr last comment says it all especially with the current lunatics at the wheel!:-(

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The trouble is the other team of prospective drivers are just as bad..they are all tarred with the same brush

 

We need a complete clean out..too much old useless dead wood 

 

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Electric cars, buses and light commercials will be a reality - in our cities. It will happen - not sure when but is definitely on the way. 

 

Technology develops exponentially (in most cases) light weight, fast charge/or swap batteries, will become the norm. Prices will come down. Eventually the range issue will be solved and EV's will be in the bush. Hydrogen may be a co traveller,  not so certain of this.

 

The existing costly/inefficient electrical distribution system will eventually be phased out, with local, even individual household, generation taking over.

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3 minutes ago, Kyle Communications said:

The trouble is the other team of prospective drivers are just as bad..they are all tarred with the same brush

 

We need a complete clean out..too much old useless dead wood 

 

Not that I disagree but this sounds a wee bit like totalitarianism  (Xi Jinping)

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While all the Electron Geeks keep  trying to scare us all with the mantra ‘the EVs are coming’. and our ICE cars will become scrap yard inhabitants. I will just grind along in my old Landcruisers, the youngest 20 years old and the oldest 45 years old…….

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Yep - we'll need whale oil forever - copper wires will always be needed for telecommunications - we can't get by without ivory - horses will always be essential...


The list of things that would "always" be critical has found itself changing drastically.  The internal combustion motor in small transport vehicles is just one more.

 

Fact is that as citizens of Australia we have 2 choices.  We can accept that a major change in engine technology is happening worldwide, that the kind of cars we used to buy new are no longer going to be available, and we can get in front of the curve and invest now in the infrastructure, manufacturing and planning that's going to be necessary to actually use and charge these cars.  (As @kgwilson says, Norway has hydro, Australia has sun.)  Lots and lots of sun.  Lots of rare earths.  Lots of education.  Lots of ideas.  Lots of manufacturing potential.  Bugger-all government leadership.

The other choice is to fight against it, stick with the old technology, build new coal-fired power stations, manufacture our own Commodore utes and put that middle finger up to the rest of the world.  Be the polluted beacon of conservatism and small-mindedness we have the absolute potential to be.  Hey, it worked a treat for South Africa in the apartheid era, didn't it?

 

1 hour ago, Kyle Communications said:

The trouble is the other team of prospective drivers are just as bad..they are all tarred with the same brush

 

We need a complete clean out..too much old useless dead wood 

 

...and that's exactly what Trump said too.  Be careful of alternatives!

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Marty do you really think the current both sides of politics only have the election in mind all of the time and how they can stay in or get in?

 

Dont you think if one party has a idea or a process the other has to be diametrically opposed to it?..tell me when other than a humanitarian disaster when either party has actually said..yeah thats a good idea lets both run with it. 

 

I am no Ji Ji ping but the system is so failed at the moment a benevolent dictator would do a far better job than the collection of no hopers we have in the past 20 years. I am no commy either but I am pretty sure my approach to all of these issues would be quite different to what he are living with now. 

 

Yeah yeah  well why dont you change it you say...well thats all good in theory but the media bias either way in this country is huge..its all got to be a scare shock horror way of reporting to make sure you grab the "news cycle"....money runs the politics and if you dont have any or can get access to any then you may as well be pissing in the wind....so dont get me started...now I am ranting.

 

No problem is insurmountable it just takes foresight, money and a resolve to get it done...and of course the right people in the right places and positions but the current system is not structured to be able to implement it

 

 

 

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Mark, please don't feel I'm downplaying your concerns about the political parties, I'm not.  In fact I share them, probably from a different perspective to you, but certainly agree that the mob in power are pretty useless and Labor hasn't distinguished themselves greatly (mainly because they went to the last election with a pretty good set of policies and an ineffective opposition, and still lost).

 

My point is that when we decide to sweep the existing democratic process away and go for any kind of dictator, we get a Trump, Bolsonaro, Duterte or some other useless turd who fouls up anything important, like protecting their people from a pandemic for instance.

 

What would change politics enough to get good action on the climate?  Getting rid of the reactionaries that hold both political parties back.  Labor and the Greens should be hammering electorates that currently have National Party members sitting.  They should be fielding their best people and putting the most effort into seats with the furthest right-leaning Liberal members.  Talking about proper electioneering here - lots of volunteers, lots of talking to people, lots of visiting people, organising groups.  Intelligent use of big data.  Take a ticket from Obama's election run, which was groundbreaking in its grass-roots activism.

 

If the parties see enough noise about climate change and are put under enough scrutiny as to who is funding them, plus their big business mates actually start moving green, then they will be dragged kicking and screaming into a position of doing what they're supposed to and actually developing policies.  Hey who knows, maybe one day they'll actually start competing to be more green than the other lot instead of what they do now.

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KGW and others, yes. We can do hydrogen fuel cells. We can do ammonia. We can do fast EV’s, we can do self driving cars. We can do electric aircraft and people carrying drones. Yes! You are correct!

 

What I was talking about was LOGISTICS. …….And I’m talking about it in the context of a country (Australia) that couldn’t do a set piece fibre optic national communications system - NBN! And today has royally ##4%ed up the rollout of a Covid19 vaccine! 

 

‘’Here is an exercise for you. Visit a Hume Highway truck stop - Gundagai, Wallan, wherever. Park, order your Macdonald’s and coffee. Sit down eat your food while counting and timing the flow of cars and trucks through the bowsers. Time how long each car spends at the bowser.

 

‘Now do the maths; an electric car is probably 80% efficient compared to 30% for an IC vehicle. The average fuel economy per car is maybe 10 l/100 km. say we are travelling 1000 km. That means an upload of 100 litres. Now work out that in energy - mega joules, divide by say 3 and that number times the car throughput gives you the number of kilowatt hours the station must dispense per hour. Work out the Amperage at say 20,000 volts for transmission lines.

 

‘’Without yet doing the fill up time calculation - which probably means quadrupling the size of the servo, I think you will find that the power transmission required for the station is huge. This demand is not going to be met by a few solar cells behind the station, or batteries, or wind. You are looking at 20,000 volt power lines and a major substation probably bigger than the servo itself!

 

Than of course we have not broached the issue of reliability of supply or redundancy.

 

Now multiply this issue by a country larger than europe with sparse population outside capital cities…..and you want charging infrastructure/??

 

These issues make the NBN and Covid19 vaccination look like child’s play.

 

…….and this is just one aspect vehicle charging.

 

QLest you think I’m a luddite, I have a 9KW solar system and would love an electric car - once it can do a 1000km round trip at 100 kmh fully loaded at weight close to 3 tons and pulling a trailer.

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Steam powered horseless carriages took off, it was a false start. Then electric cars took off in cities, another false start. The ICE cars took off and worked. False starts are possible, even if they look good at the start and attract lots of investment. For EVs the constraints of available materials and power distribution will take decades to resolve at a national scale.

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