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Dark-night disorientation crash of JFK Jr - it's been 20 years.

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There's more to that story than we're being told.  And that guy being interviewed ain't gonna tell us either.  Dark night disorientation crash makes it sound so obvious, doesn't it?  As De Galle said, and that guy quoted, "Graveyards are full of dispensable men."   In other words, JFK Jr was dispensable, No?  Or is that too subtle a clue?

 

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The history of the Kennedys is one of constant tragedies, but a lot of them were self-generated, because they pushed the boundaries of life to the limit. Even JFK himself almost didn't make it, during WW2.

 

One would suspect the Kennedy Curse was the karmic comeback for Joe Kennedys ruthless, unethical and totally corrupt behaviour.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennedy_curse

 

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6 hours ago, Manwell said:

There's more to that story than we're being told.  And that guy being interviewed ain't gonna tell us either.  Dark night disorientation crash makes it sound so obvious, doesn't it?  As De Galle said, and that guy quoted, "Graveyards are full of dispensable men."   In other words, JFK Jr was dispensable, No?  Or is that too subtle a clue?

 

Routine case, take a look at many similar reports and you'll see the pilot had made similar trips night VFR then flew into a dark area without farmhouses and dropped from the sky. Same thing over water.

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The 40 to 100 people who died after JFK were a different story altogether.

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12 hours ago, Manwell said:

There's more to that story than we're being told.  And that guy being interviewed ain't gonna tell us either.  Dark night disorientation crash makes it sound so obvious, doesn't it?  As De Galle said, and that guy quoted, "Graveyards are full of dispensable men."   In other words, JFK Jr was dispensable, No?  Or is that too subtle a clue?

 

What the guy said was "Graveyards are full of indispensable men". It is a quote often attributed to Charles De Gaulle, that means people who thought things couldn't go on without them end up dead. It's about people pushing on when they shouldn't.

Pilots with "get thereitis" are a very good example. 

There is no suggestion of conspiracy in that statement.

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6 hours ago, turboplanner said:

Routine case, take a look at many similar reports and you'll see the pilot had made similar trips night VFR then flew into a dark area without farmhouses and dropped from the sky. Same thing over water.

So it would seem on the surface turbo, but considering the bigger picture, I think not.  Why a pilot would lose control at night depends on many factors, but the circumstantial evidence surrounding this particular crash is compelling.  Cui Bono is always a good question to pose in a potential murder investigation, and the beneficiaries of this particular accident are connected to a long list of untimely deaths.

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1 hour ago, M61A1 said:

What the guy said was "Graveyards are full of indispensable men". It is a quote often attributed to Charles De Gaulle, that means people who thought things couldn't go on without them end up dead. It's about people pushing on when they shouldn't.

Pilots with "get thereitis" are a very good example. 

There is no suggestion of conspiracy in that statement.

You're probably correct about indispensable M61, I assumed he'd said dispensable, and didn't verify it.  However, it doesn't mean what you suggest in this context, or in the context De Gaulle initially said it.  Being a high ranking military man, he'd be smarter than the average grunt, and also likely to be well versed in diplomatic language, which is the art of saying something without specifically saying it.  Being military, he'd probably have a good Intel background too, so he'd be privy to the truth implied by General Jessup in "A Few Good Men", when he said, "You want the truth?  You can't handle the truth?"   So, on one level, you're right - there is no suggestion of conspiracy in that statement, but on another level, it's a blatant threat to anyone else who thinks they're indispensable saviours of mankind.  Ironically, the term "conspiracy theory" was coined shortly after the JFK assassination by the CIA to dispel theories involving their involvement.  Of course, he could have simply crashed because he was a mere mortal Bloggs pilot who lacked self-discipline, but that's harder to believe than the glaring alternative.   

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33 minutes ago, Manwell said:

 Of course, he could have simply crashed because he was a mere mortal Bloggs pilot who lacked self-discipline, but that's harder to believe than the glaring alternative.   

His crash was exactly the same as many before him and many after him. It happens to the best of them. Believe what you like, but there is no glaring alternative.

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Pushing the boundaries of your piloting skills by attempting a borderline VFR flight into complete darkness is the only glaring reason for John Kennedy Jr's fatal crash. The Kennedys were famous for risky behaviour.

The NTSB conducted a thorough enquiry and concluded that the crash was due to the pilots "failure to maintain control of the airplane during a descent over water at night, which was a result of spatial disorientation".

That is an investigation carried out by experts, who also look for evidence of possible foul play in crashes.

Even JKj's last instructor advised he wasn't yet ready for instrument evaluation, and needed additional training. He stated that JKj had the ability to fly to Martha's vineyard at the time of the flight, only if a visible horizon existed.

Any faintly visible horizon JK Junior might have had, vanished during his descent, due to haze and the blending of dark water, dark land, and dark night.

He chose to fly without filing a flight plan, he originally planned to take off in good light at 18:00Hrs but did not depart until 20:39Hrs, more than 30 mins after sunset.

In addition, the final nail in his coffin was his decision to fly the route over 30 miles of water and then descend over water at night, whilst approaching the coastline.

In hazy conditions, at night, with no IFR qualification, JK jr simply flew far beyond his skills level. As with so many fatal crash pilots, they think they're more skilled than they are.

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3 hours ago, M61A1 said:

His crash was exactly the same as many before him and many after him. It happens to the best of them. Believe what you like, but there is no glaring alternative.

This is a simple forum discussion about a prang, so offering some reasoning would be good, like onetrack above.   Without going into boring detail, I've highlighted just a few subtle hints that this wasn't exactly the same as many before.  Would you also suggest that his father's death was by a lone gunman, for example?

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9 minutes ago, Manwell said:

This is a simple forum discussion about a prang, so offering some reasoning would be good, like onetrack above.   Without going into boring detail, I've highlighted just a few subtle hints that this wasn't exactly the same as many before.  Would you also suggest that his father's death was by a lone gunman, for example?

His father's death was related to actions by Robert Kennedy. 11 shots were fired, Chuck Nicoletti fired the frontal shot which killed him, James Files fire from the grassy knoll, someone else I forget managed to hit the kerb and leave a scar which was there for years, a bullet went throught the windscreen of the limo and through a freeway sign which was removed same day. No great secrets there.

What several people have tried to explain is that this was a very silly flight by a pilot who was nowhere near qualified to do it, and the result was as expected. One of my instructors, flying over the sea in a search and rescue, with otherwise above average control of his aircraft, also lost contril and killed himself in daylight.

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2 hours ago, onetrack said:

Pushing the boundaries of your piloting skills by attempting a borderline VFR flight into complete darkness is the only glaring reason for John Kennedy Jr's fatal crash. The Kennedys were famous for risky behaviour.

The NTSB conducted a thorough enquiry and concluded that the crash was due to the pilots "failure to maintain control of the airplane during a descent over water at night, which was a result of spatial disorientation".

That is an investigation carried out by experts, who also look for evidence of possible foul play in crashes.

Even JKj's last instructor advised he wasn't yet ready for instrument evaluation, and needed additional training. He stated that JKj had the ability to fly to Martha's vineyard at the time of the flight, only if a visible horizon existed.

Any faintly visible horizon JK Junior might have had, vanished during his descent, due to haze and the blending of dark water, dark land, and dark night.

He chose to fly without filing a flight plan, he originally planned to take off in good light at 18:00Hrs but did not depart until 20:39Hrs, more than 30 mins after sunset.

In addition, the final nail in his coffin was his decision to fly the route over 30 miles of water and then descend over water at night, whilst approaching the coastline.

In hazy conditions, at night, with no IFR qualification, JK jr simply flew far beyond his skills level. As with so many fatal crash pilots, they think they're more skilled than they are.

The only glaring reason... ?  Not so.  I've offered some alternatives, and all you've done is made appeals to authority, which is like GW, Blair, and Howard, blandly declaring Saddam had WMD because their Intel told them so.   My points are not conclusive beyond the shadow of a doubt, and neither are yours, so the whole idea is to arrive at the most likely conclusion.  I also know of an ATSB investigator who used to work under me, so I have an insight into the standard of investigations conducted here, and I'd guess the standard in the US would be similar.  

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8 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

His father's death was related to actions by Robert Kennedy. 11 shots were fired, Chuck Nicoletti fired the frontal shot which killed him, James Files fire from the grassy knoll, someone else I forget managed to hit the kerb and leave a scar which was there for years, a bullet went throught the windscreen of the limo and through a freeway sign which was removed same day. No great secrets there.

What several people have tried to explain is that this was a very silly flight by a pilot who was nowhere near qualified to do it, and the result was as expected. One of my instructors, flying over the sea in a search and rescue, with otherwise above average control of his aircraft, also lost contril and killed himself in daylight.

A number of shooters would imply a conspiracy turbo?  How do you decide there are no great secrets there, then?  Your assessment of the pilot's skill and intellect implies a common error, that we think others have lesser skills and intellectual ability than us.   Maybe he wasn't as good a pilot or as intelligent as you, but that shouldn't necessarily be assumed.  A good inexperienced pilot would, in fact, assume the opposite and take great care to improve.  

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1 hour ago, Manwell said:

This is a simple forum discussion about a prang, so offering some reasoning would be good, like onetrack above.   Without going into boring detail, I've highlighted just a few subtle hints that this wasn't exactly the same as many before.  Would you also suggest that his father's death was by a lone gunman, for example?

Tornado....is that you???????

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            No !  Manwell is John Cleese’ sidekick in Fawlty Towers....... Bob 

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Hey, I like the way  this thread is going. Nonsensical but irrefutable hypotheses that could keep us going for weeks if not months. Bring it on.

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1 hour ago, pmccarthy said:

Hey, I like the way  this thread is going. Nonsensical but irrefutable hypotheses that could keep us going for weeks if not months. Bring it on.

Pity it’s all over.

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Conspiracy theories abound about the death of JFK.  The best evidence based analysis, with the now released Warren Commission papers, as detailed in the book The Smoking Gun by Colin McLarin, details the most likely set of events IMO.

This details the fatal shot coming from Hickey and suggests a reason why so many different conspiracy theories were not discredited immediately as they served a purpose and to why there was a lack of a expert criminal investigation as the facts were already known but not desirable to be released. This book details at least a believable set of circumstances as opposed to some of the fanciful theories.

But many theories still abound.

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It's not over yet turbo.  I'm just getting started.  To answer M61, no this is not Tornado.  Nice aircraft though.

To answer Biggles, congratulations for spotting the obvious.  

To reply to pmmcarthy, a well known member....  "Nonsensical but irrefutable hypotheses that could keep us going for weeks if not months."  I'm glad you think so pm.  When you are capable of comprehending the incomprehensible, it may not seem so nonsensical.

To reply to frank, you should prefix your comments with In MY OPINION.  And we should all know the value of opinions.

 

This is starting to get interesting, don't you agree?

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US aircraft are usually well fitted out, and a Piper Saratoga over there would certainly have had a 2 axis autopilot, coupled to the NAV side of the 2 NAV/COMS usually fitted. He had probably received some training in all of the systems in the aircraft? If not - why not?  As well, most US pilots know how to select a VOR radial by the time they reach solo standard, so it would be unusual if JFK wasn't using an outbound radial off his departure airport, plus the inbound radial to the destination airport on the other set. (VORS every few nm over there). How difficult would it have been to place the autopilot into NAV mode and allow the aircraft to fly itself directly to destination?  This, especially as he was probably conversing with both passengers, which may well have been contributory. Have always wondered about this accident in what was such a well equipped aircraft.

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