Question for you all re A380 / 748i

[Guest Chainsaw]

What you guys here think? Will Boeing reap the benefit in the long term due to the ongoing delivery problems with the A380?

 

I have reading in various sites/forums with comments varied. A good number think that with low re-training/re-tooling etc, and better integration with exiting 747-400 fleets, the 748 International will start to get some serious sales, pinching some from A380 customers.

 

I value your thoughts.

 

 

[Guest Glenn]

But how long before the 747-800 will be in service. A380 will be in service some time next year maybe

 

 

[Guest Chainsaw]

But how long before the 747-800 will be in service. A380 will be in service some time next year maybe

Glenn, I do expect most of the current orders will stand as they are. True the A380 will be in service before the 748i, but there are some definite advantages to the 748i.

 

Also in the news today, Mr Dixon CEO of Qantas, said that Qantas was very interested in the 748i. Could this mean that Qantas may not take up the optional orders of the Airbus?

 

Boeing claims that after re-working their figures, that the 748i can fly all year round to Dallas. That's important especially to Qantas because Dallas is the main hub for American Airlines which code-shares with Qantas in the USA.

 

Or, is Mr Dixon just looking for a way to gain extra major leverage/benefit out of the delays by Airbus? mmmm

 

 

[Guest Glenn]

Can Qantas cancel their orders for the A380 without being sued by Airbus? (not that they will) But if Qantas looks to be more interested in Boeing than maybe Qantas is hoping that Airbus will give them more. What the more is, I don't know.

 

 

[Guest WillMikoyan]

I think that we'll probably see a plateau in A380 sales at maybe a few aircraft more than are on order now, before sales start to pick up again (possibly 2008?) Mind you, I don't think they would get as many order as they may hope, though the original 747's orders stopped at around 400 for a while before they started again.

 

The 748 will probably find favour amongst cargo operators as they start to replace their fleets of large inefficinet jets, such as the B727 and possibly DC-10, as well as some of the older propliners. The Japanese tend to prefer the 747, so it's likely that they will order the 748 over the A380...This is all just an opinion though of course... :P

 

 

[Guest Cat on a PC©]

Can Qantas cancel their orders for the A380 without being sued by Airbus? (not that they will) But if Qantas looks to be more interested in Boeing than maybe Qantas is hoping that Airbus will give them more. What the more is' date=' I don't know.[/quote']I think Qantas ordered the A380, partly, to keep up with the "Joneses" aka Emirates, Singapore etc. Now that Qantas seem keen to "hub bust" with orders for 787, there is no reason to suggest the 747-8 is not in their sights. If its range matches prediction, I think Qantas would strongly favour 747-8 to open up new point-to-point routes and use the A380 for the cattle runs such as MEL-LAX, SYD-LHR etc.

[Guest Steve R]

Now that Qantas seem keen to "hub bust" with orders for 787' date=' there is no reason to suggest the 747-8 is not in their sights. .[/quote']I thought the whole argument for the hub busters was that they catered for routes where you couldn't attract the numbers to fill a 747 flight?

[Guest Cat on a PC©]

I thought the whole argument for the hub busters was that they catered for routes where you couldn't attract the numbers to fill a 747 flight?

True. However, I'm thinking more of busting the traditional US hubs, like LAX and SFO. I wouldn't think Qantas would have any problems filling a 747-8i in SYD bound for DFW.

 

 

[Guest Chainsaw]

Another interesting question.

 

Do the 748i's have the same engines as the 787's - read maintenance costs, logistics, training etc.

 

Also, there are still strong whispers that Qantas may still be looking at the Boeing 772. Whether they actually buy them is another matter. Syd-London all year round - no, more half the year at least - yes.

 

Or, once again are these rumours happening for a $$ reason? Time will tell

 

 

[Guest Cat on a PC©]

It's interesting you should mention 772, Chainsaw, because, it, like the 787s have a little itsy bitsy problem. It's called ETOPS. Qantas' most profitable route is the Pacific, and running a twin engine aircraft over the Pacific is still a contentious issue, despite what Boeing would have us believe.

 

As for those engines, my understanding is the 747-8i will have a derivitive of the GEnx engines fitted to the 787s.

 

Anyway, I digress.

 

To answer the question of the topic, I think QF will definitely have a mix of A380s and 747-8s.

 

 

[Guest Chainsaw]

And I agree, a mix. And a mix it might be. With the dealys to the A380, the 748i a way off, the 787 a way off, old 743's, maybe some 772's or 773's may fill the gap and at a nice price (related to: Q, will you buy some 748's please). Boeing has supposedly kept some tucked away just for Qantas. Now Mr Airbus would not like that would he?

 

This is really interesting to me how this will pan out.