thearb

You will of course have to make your own mind up whether the pilot intentionally entered Jerusalem Bay or not. To me, it seems highly unlikely that a proficient pilot who had been there many times before would mistake that small bay for the normal route.

Still under investigation: 'aircraft weight and balance'

The ATSB must have an idea by now what the weight of the aircraft was on take-off, even if it isn't clear about the distribution. Richard Cousins wasn't a small guy and tragically one of the victims was an 11 year old child.

Whether he diverted into Jerusalem Bay in error or deliberately, the aircraft may simply not have had the performance to exit even if operating at 100% capability. There have been numerous incidents in the Rockies in North America where a pilot has flown into a valley with no way of exit due to increasing surrounding height terrain and narrowness making a safe turn impossible.

As already mentioned, with a tailwind the point of no return may have swept up on the pilot before he fully realised it.