Number of aircraft on RA-Aus register

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The total number of valid registrations is now more or less static — the number of new registrations is being balanced by non-renewal of registration. See table 2. The number of aircraft dropping off the register is surprising; perhaps it's due to the current economic conditions.

 

In the 18 months from December 2007 to June 2009 there were 402 new registrations; in the same period 451 aircraft left the register. Among those were 78 aircraft with initial registrations from the 1980s and 55 from the 1990–1994 period, which could be expected. However, 80 aircraft from the 1995–1999 period, 108 from 2000–2004 and 130 from 2005–2007 were not renewed; which is totally unexpected.

 

During the last three years there has been a nine percentage point shift away from home-builts (now down to 44% of total aircraft) towards increasingly complex factory-built aircraft. See table 1. This has resulted in a substantial increase in the market value of the RA-Aus flight line — currently estimated at $98 million; an enormous increase in value since the association's inception just 26 years ago.

 

... John Brandon

 

Table 1. Number of aircraft in each registration category

 

The number of aircraft on the register is now more or less static — the number of new registrations is balanced by aircraft dropping off the register, see table 2. During the last three years there has been a nine percentage point shift away from home-builts (now 44% of total aircraft) towards increasingly complex factory-built aircraft. This has resulted in a substantial increase in the market value of the RA-Aus flight line — currently estimated at above $90 million.

 

Prefix

 

CAO & paragraph

 

Number & % of total

 

at June 25, 2009

 

% of total

 

at December 31, 2007

 

% of total

 

at June, 2006

 

10-

 

CAO 95.10

 

home-built

 

250 – 9%

 

12%

 

13%

 

19-

 

CAO 95.55 para 1.5 & 1.9

 

home-built

 

905 – 31%

 

32%

 

35%

 

28-

 

CAO 95.55 para 1.2

 

home-built

 

108 – 4%

 

4%

 

5%

 

Total home-built

 

1263 – 44%

 

48%

 

53%

 

32-

 

CAO 95.32

 

trikes & 'chutes

 

406 – 14%

 

14%

 

12%

 

24-

 

CAO 95.55 para 1.6 & 1.8

 

factory-built

 

691 – 24%

 

18%

 

12%

 

25-

 

CAO 95.55 para 1.4

 

factory-built

 

286 – 10%

 

11%

 

13%

 

55-

 

CAO 95.55 para 1.3

 

factory-built

 

216 – 8%

 

8%

 

10%

 

Total factory-built

 

1599 – 56%

 

52%

 

47%

 

Total on register

 

2862

 

Table 2. Number of aircraft by year of registration

 

The following table summarises the number of aircraft on the register, listed in the year of initial registration. When an aircraft registration lapses due to non-payment of the annual fee the number is not re-assigned to another aircraft and the registration number entry retains its initial date. So, normally, if an owner allows an aircraft registration to lapse, then pays the registration fee at some later time it will not be regarded as a new registration and the initial date will be maintained in the record.

 

Year of initial

 

registration

 

Number at

 

25/6/09

 

Number at

 

31/12/07

 

1986

 

16

 

18

 

1987

 

52

 

58

 

1988 [note 1]

 

165

 

218

 

1989

 

50

 

67

 

1990

 

46

 

55

 

1991

 

56

 

73

 

1992

 

63

 

76

 

1993

 

91

 

102

 

1994

 

65

 

70

 

1995

 

52

 

65

 

1996

 

51

 

65

 

1997

 

57

 

73

 

1998 [note 2]

 

80

 

92

 

1999

 

102

 

127

 

2000

 

129

 

153

 

2001

 

131

 

152

 

2002

 

129

 

146

 

2003

 

137

 

160

 

2004

 

169

 

192

 

2005

 

208

 

255

 

2006

 

304

 

348

 

2007

 

307

 

346

 

2008 [note 3]

 

296

 

-

 

2009 [to June 25]

 

106

 

-

 

Total [note 4]

 

2862

 

2912

 

Notes to table 2:

 

1. The RA-Aus aircraft register started in 1986 with the new factory-built CAO 95.25 training aircraft, it took two or three years for then existing ultralight owners to register their aircraft with AUF/RA-Aus, so the year of registration shown may not reflect aircraft age.

 

2. CAO 95.55 was expanded in 1998 to introduce the amateur-built (experimental) category which led to the increase in registrations for the following years.

 

3. RA-Aus membership and flight training facilities grew significantly during 2005–2008 which triggered the big increase in aircraft registrations during 2005–2008. The economic conditions of 2008/9 have now slowed new registrations.

 

4. The number of aircraft dropping off the register is surprising. Probably it's due to the current economic conditions. In the 18 months from December 2007 to June 2009 there were 402 new registrations; in the same period 451 aircraft left the register. Among those were 78 aircraft with initial registrations from the 1980s and 55 from the 1990–1994 period, which perhaps might be expected. However, 80 aircraft disappeared from the 1995–1999 period, 108 from 2000–2004 and 130 from 2005–2007; which was totally unexpected.

 

Table 3. Aircraft register at December 31, 2008

 

State

 

Full

 

registration

 

Provisional

 

registration

 

90-day

 

suspension

 

Total

 

aircraft

 

Qld

 

704

 

23

 

26

 

753

 

NSW

 

+ ACT

 

706

 

26

 

16

 

744

 

Vic

 

624

 

20

 

17

 

661

 

Tas

 

79

 

1

 

2

 

82

 

SA

 

263

 

6

 

5

 

274

 

WA

 

224

 

10

 

2

 

236

 

NT

 

50

 

0

 

5

 

55

 

Total

 

2650

 

82

 

73

 

2805

 

Note to table 3: provisional registration applies to completed home-builts which have not yet flown the 40 hours required for full registration. The 90-day suspension category applies to aircraft where the annual fee payment is overdue; a 90 days grace is allowed before the registration entry is cancelled. Home-built projects, that have been allocated a registration number but the aircraft have not yet made their initial flight, are not included in any of the registration statistics.

 

Table 4. Market value of RA-Aus flight line

 

A sample of the number of aircraft offered for sale in the members' market section of the RA-Aus magazine is taken quarterly. Advertisements offering a syndicate share or an incomplete aircraft are excluded from the sampling, as are advertisements where no asking price appears. The results are shown in the table.

 

The average asking price during the past two years was $40 500 and has been generally consistent. The assumption is that the sale price finally achieved (i.e. market value) is about 85% of the asking price which places the average aircraft market value at $34 400. This values the 2862 aircraft with valid registration (25 June 2009) at $98 000 000. In addition it is probable that there are another 300–400 aircraft where the owners, for various reasons, have allowed the registration to lapse temporarily.

 

Magazine issue

 

sampled

 

Number of aircraft

 

advertised for sale

 

Total value of

 

asking price

 

$ million

 

Average value of

 

asking price

 

$

 

Price range

 

$'000s

 

Jun 2007

 

62

 

2.259

 

36 500

 

5–118

 

Sep 2007

 

63

 

2.656

 

42 000

 

5–125

 

Dec 2007

 

87

 

3.705

 

42 500

 

6–143

 

Mar 2008

 

55

 

2.311

 

42 000

 

8–125

 

Jun 2008

 

61

 

2.593

 

42 000

 

10–90

 

Sep 2008

 

61

 

2.205

 

36 000

 

3–100

 

Dec 2008

 

55

 

2.283

 

41 500

 

10–110

 

Mar 2009

 

61

 

2.526

 

41 000

 

8–138

 

Jun 2009

 

48

 

1.882

 

39 000

 

10–110

 

553

 

$22.420M

 

$40 500

 

$3–143k