Guest Brett Campany Posted October 11, 2009 Share Posted October 11, 2009 Forecasting's a funny thing. I've been watching the weather all week because I had the Texan booked for 3 days of flying. Was supposed to go to Cunderdin but it looked to windy and this morning the wife and I were heading to Margaret River but the forecast just doesn't look favourable. Area Forecast 12th 4:00 am TO 12th 6:00 pm Area 63. Overview: Areas of fog N of Mandurah / Walpole / Ravensthorpe / DOTOP until 9 am. Isolated showers ocean/ 30 nm inland. Area QNH 6 am to 9 am area 63: NW of Coonana / Walpole 1022, SE of Balladonia / Esperance 1015, rest 1019 OVERVIEW: AREAS OF FOG NORTH OF MDU/WPE/YNRV/DOTOP UNTIL 01Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS OCEAN/30NM INLAND. Divisions A: Winds N of Augusta / Norseman B: Winds remainder SUBDIVISIONS: A: WINDS NORTH OF YAUG/YNSM B: WINDS REMAINDER Wind Height 3000 5000 Div A: 230°/20kt 220°/20kt Div B: 250°/35kt 230°/35kt Cloud: Broken stratus 1000/3000 ft in rain showers base 1500 ft inland. Scattered cumulus 2500/8000 ft ocean/ 30 nm inland base 3000 ft inland. Scattered stratocumulus 3000/6000 ft S of Mandurah / Balladonia , base 4000 ft inland, broken after 11 am. CLOUD: BKN ST 1000/3000 IN SHRA BASE 1500 INLAND . SCT CU 2500/8000 OCEAN/30NM INLAND BASE 3000 INLAND . SCT SC 3000/6000 S OF MDU/YBAL, BASE 4000 INLAND, BKN AFTER 03Z. Weather: Fog N of Mandurah / Walpole / Ravensthorpe / DOTOP until 9 am. Rain showers ocean/ 30 nm inland. WEATHER: FOG NORTH OF MDU/WPE/YNRV/DOTOP UNTIL 01Z. SHRA OCEAN/30NM INLAND. Visibility: 300 m in fog 3000 m in rain showers. VISIBILITY: 0300M IN FOG 3000M IN SHRA. Freezing level: 5500 ft in the far SE grading to 10000 ft in the far NW rising to 8000 ft in the SE to 11000 ft in the NW by 4 pm. FREEZING LEVEL: 5500FT IN THE FAR SE GRADING TO 10000FT IN THE FAR NW RISING TO 8000FT IN THE SE TO 11000FT IN THE NW BY 08Z. Icing: Moderate in cumulus tops. ICING: MOD IN CU TOPS. Turbulence: Moderate in cumulus. TURBULENCE: MOD IN CU. BUSSELTON (YBLN) METAR YBLN 112200Z AUTO 28004KT //// // ////// 11/08 Q1023 RMK RF00.0/000.0 Report issued 12th 6:00 am WAT Wind: light W (280°) 4 kt Visibility: not reported Weather: unable to be detected Temperature: 11°C Dewpoint: 8°C QNH: 1023 hPa Rainfall : no rain in last 10 minutes , none since 9 am. TAF YBLN 111959Z 1122/1211 23010KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN SCT030 BKN040 RMK T 10 15 17 17 Q 1022 1023 1023 1022 Forecast issued 12th 3:59 am WAT valid from 12th 6:00 am to 12th 7:00 pm WAT Wind: gentle SW (230°) 10 kt Visibility: 10 km or more Weather: light showers of rain Cloud: scattered at 3000 ft - broken at 4000 ft So I think I've made the right decision and the wife backed it up with one of her "it's not a day for flying" feelings. Live to fly another day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomo Posted October 11, 2009 Share Posted October 11, 2009 That is quite a depressing forecast!thumb_down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Brett Campany Posted October 11, 2009 Share Posted October 11, 2009 Tell me about it! Maybe next Monday, it's supposed to fine up.....for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thx1137 Posted October 11, 2009 Share Posted October 11, 2009 Very dissapointing isn't it. :-( What gets me is when it is a toss-up (in my mind!). Last week I was going to fly and could have gotten around the cloud but wasn't sure if the weather was going to be ok to get back. So we jumped back in the car an went home. I hate booking an aircraft and not using it for most of the booked time. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Brett Campany Posted October 11, 2009 Share Posted October 11, 2009 Very dissapointing isn't it. :-(What gets me is when it is a toss-up (in my mind!). Last week I was going to fly and could have gotten around the cloud but wasn't sure if the weather was going to be ok to get back. So we jumped back in the car an went home. I hate booking an aircraft and not using it for most of the booked time. :-( See that's how I was thinking a bit this morning as well. "it should be ok" and I can see how easy it would be to get trapped in that mind set. Before you know it, you go flying and get stuck in a situation that might not be an easy one to get out of. Can't wait for this weather to sort itself out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slartibartfast Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Same happened to me today. I had a 172 booked for a navex to Albury to tick off class D. Looked like crap last night, checked again this morning and it looked worse. So I rang the instructor and he said he thought we could do it in time. I asked him to check again (ARFOR said 30 knots increasing by 15 before 11:00am, cloud down to 5000 and we needed 7500 in that direction) and pay particular attention to the radar in our intended direction (huge front and rain event). "Oh" he said. Let's mark that down as cancelled. Bloody weather.:dog: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Maj Millard Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Hey, there is always another day if you make the right decision, none if you don't !...:black_eye: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Brett Campany Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Hey, there is always another day if you make the right decision, none if you don't !...:black_eye: So very true mate. I'm lucky in that a cancellation doesn't cost me anything. It would be pretty rude of a school to hit you up for a fee if you can't fly due weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Maj Millard Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 I would think it very bad taste if they charged for a bad wx cancellation. On the other hand, they should make a note, that this is the type of pilot we need to be renting to !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thx1137 Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Just out of curiosity, seeing I haven't been in the booking a plane scenario, do you have to pay anything if you decide the weather is against you? No, though I would expect they will get a bit upset if you cancel for no good reason. Especially on the day of the flight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
facthunter Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Weather. Never let your frustration affect your analysis and response to the weather. Maj. is right. Recognise when you are being pressured, (by yourself or others or by an imagined "urgency" that in the big scheme of things does not exist). Live to fly another day. Nev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simonflyer Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 It can really suck sometimes, but not as much as being sucked into crappy weather.. I had to do the 4+ hour drive from Melbourne to Swan Hill the other day because the weather was iffy..It wasnt too bad on the way up, but i would have had my work cut out on the way back the next day dodging heavy showers and TS, so id have to say i made a good call, but geez I cant wait to get my IFR and NVFR so i can have just a bit more choice! Overall lately the weather has been all over the place..The good ol change of season on Australia..Gotta love it..Unless you are planning to fly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j3pipercub Posted October 14, 2009 Share Posted October 14, 2009 Good Call guys, I have a good one when knockin around, If there are doubts, then there are no doubts. I know within reason, but if you're not 100% sure, then just park it. j3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest watto Posted October 14, 2009 Share Posted October 14, 2009 Best thing Brett is if I send you my roster and you simply take the days I am rostered on are all fine and calm and the ones I am off are miserable and windy!!! it is almost 100% everytime lately. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Brett Campany Posted October 14, 2009 Share Posted October 14, 2009 Well the plan was to go flying again on Monday as I have Monday and Tuesday off. Winds on Monday are forecast to 35kph!!! So no flying on Monday either. C'mon summer, where are you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pop-top Posted October 16, 2009 Share Posted October 16, 2009 Best thing Brett is if I send you my roster and you simply take the days I am rostered on are all fine and calm and the ones I am off are miserable and windy!!! it is almost 100% everytime lately. :-( :faint:What!?!? I'm completely envious right now. The weather is NEVER good when I fly...EVER! my whole flying school makes fun of me for it. Even when it's forecast to be good, clouds and drizzle magically appear. The only upside is I'm getting great at judging what it will be like up there. As everyone is always telling me when it's boarder line or really bad "It's better to be down here wishing you were up there, than up there wishing you were down here". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yenn Posted October 17, 2009 Share Posted October 17, 2009 The weather usually doesn't worry me here. I have a reputation of going flying when it is too windy for all the others. Easy when I fly a plane with a higher wing loading and less inertia, but today stopped me. It was very hazy with smoke from grass fires when I went to the strip, but I thought I would go up for a look. After take off I couldn't see the small hill about 2 miles away, I could see the ocean and water around the islands ahining with a dull blue light, but what really attracted my attention was the lack of visibility to see other traffic. I reckon 3 miles visibility and at 100kts how much chance have I of seeing another plane. None. A plane would be on you before you had completed half of your normal scan. Total flying time 6 minutes, and live to fly again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomo Posted October 17, 2009 Share Posted October 17, 2009 at 100kts how much chance have I of seeing another plane. None. That is no doubt why it is a min of 5 mile visibility requirement for VFR flying. Lets say there is two aircraft on a head on collision course doing 100kts each, that is about 100mtrs a second convergence speed. Given 5 miles separation at first sighting, (that is about 8klm) you'd have 80 seconds, Oodles! So if it's three miles, 48 seconds, not to bad I guess. 1 mile - 16 seconds, that would have to be pretty quick decision making time then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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