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The Future of Aviation (moved posts)


Guest ROM

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Well it looks like the UL /LSA movement is going through the usual growing up pains that any technologically based industry seems to have to go through to sort out the survivors.

 

The automotive and aviation industries following both the first and second world wars saw an extraordinary number of new designs and wannabee major corporations.

 

The consumer Electronics and Internet in the 1980's and 1990's also followed the same pattern with dozens of new companies and new designs coming onto the market for a short while.

 

All of these periods were quickly followed by the demise or consolidation of a whole host of small wannabee companies into a few large and then ultimately only a handful of major global players.

 

In personal aviation over the last 50 years think Cessna and Piper.

 

In the Internet, which is still sorting itself out, think Microsoft, Apple, Google and etc.

 

In the automotive industry think GM and Ford with Toyota the upstart that has muscled in.

 

An industry following it's consolidation phase into a few major players becomes conservative, staid and starts to look at the bottom line more than it's need to keep on innovating.

 

An industry dominated by a few huge, slow reacting corporations also develops a hubris that says that what it has is the best and believes that there is no need to drastically innovate to hold it's position in the market.

 

Then along comes a period of revolutionary change and the big dominant corporations very rarely have either the psychology in their top ranks or the products to be prepared for the revolution.

 

Often such a revolution is a direct response to the conservative boringness of the dominant corporations.

 

In aviation it was the rise of the Ultralight movement and then the formalization of this movement in the LSA criteria which has provided a set of legal and customer required characteristics that wannabee aircraft designers and manufacturers can work to with the knowledge that there designs will be accepted word wide if they meet the criteria.

 

This relatively rapid development has caught the big personal aircraft aviation manufacturing corporations totally flat footed.

 

They are now frantically trying to get in on the act but they now have to contend with a whole host of new comers and some very innovative technologically advanced designs that they, the corporations in their ponderous fashion, have no hope of matching in the near future.

 

Unfortunately in a period of rapid change and the rise of new players in a changing industry, the best designs rarely come out on top.

 

The leadership, the marketing, the structure and the financing and finally, quite often a distant last, the technology that the company is supposedly based on, are what ultimately takes a company to the top of the heap for the next round of company / corporation consolidation.

 

Think Microsoft whose DOS operating system was far inferior to a lot of other wannabee computer software designs in the 1980's but MS got to the top by a combination of innovative marketing and being totally ruthless.

 

So it will be with the LSA aviation industries.

 

There are a huge number of new designs for LSA spec'ed aircraft being announced.

 

Some are even coming onto the market.

 

Most will disappear again in a few years as some already have.

 

Some will be bought out by other players.

 

The best designs will probably not survive as they will probably be just too costly, too sophisticated, poorly marketed or poorly financed and poorly organised and run companies to survive the dog eat dog aviation business environment.

 

Any one of these is enough to sink a promising design unless it is taken over by another better organised player.

 

There will be many, many very well designed and some not so well designed LSA and ultralight aircraft that will be bought by pilots the world over during the next few years which will become orphan designs as their manufacturers and designers go out of business or depart for more lucrative life styles.

 

Will Cessna and Piper survive in their present form?

 

I doubt it!

 

The personal aviation world has changed forever with the advent of the closely defined LSA category and other changes in personal aviation that are still to happen in the future and Cessna and Piper were left standing and are now trying to catch up.

 

In another 20 or 25 years time, many may be asking, what happened to Cessna and Piper, the same as they are now asking, what happened to GM, the world's biggest manufacturing company, and Ford, that they are slowly going broke.

 

In suggesting that Cessna and Piper may not be around in their present form in 20 or so years time, it is a fact that the average life of a major corporation in the USA is 40 years.

 

My personal philosphy is that when a corporation [ or an individual ] seems to be on completely on top and in an unassailable position as long as can be seen into the future, start looking for the white ants in the foundations.

 

They will be there and they will be very busy!

 

Unfortunately another factor, bureaucracy, has the inbuilt tendency for a mindless domination that will over the next couple of decades, slowly strangle the Light Sport aircraft concept, destroying the ability of small aviation enterprises to innovate and speeding the consolidation of sport aviation into a few large corporations.

 

Then sport aviation will, like GA before it, be stuck with tiny choice of safe but extremely boring and conservative and expensive aircraft designs from a handful of ultra conservative manufacturers.

 

And the cycle will start all over again!

 

 

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This has been moved from the thread Alert Security gone mad - Page 2 - Recreational Flying

 

This may be a little offtopic and I apologise for that but I wanted to say that I don't understand the big picture.

 

If we let our thoughts wander a little to the future, aviation is going to be a big part of every person's life. Did you know that many of the things that people thought were funny in the TV series The Thunderbirds made in the 60's are actually real today! If we watch any sci fi show aviation of some form is always a large part of it.

 

Aviation IS not only a mode of transport today but without the small experimental and development that goes into light aircraft today together with its freedoms that we have enjoyed in flying then how on earth are we ever going to have a "tomorrow"?

 

How is the progression link ever going to be made at some time in the future from the car to another form of transport. Is aviation ever going to be an option if there is no longer any place where the natural progression can occur.

 

If you wish to discuss this further then I will move this post to start a new thread

 

099_off_topic.gif.20188a5321221476a2fad1197804b380.gif

 

 

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I think you are right Ian but unfortunately to defend ourselves here I think we need to tap into the wider audience - those who treat aviation as a mode of transport.

 

The hard part for us is striking a chord with the masses. Articles like the one posted elsewhere in this forum detailing how 'unsafe' our hobby make it difficult to argue our point. If we put a positive spin on our activities and show the link between us 'barnstormers' and how our flying benefits everyone then we just might be able to mobilise a few 'outsiders' and get them on board.

 

Many people don't realise there is a relationship between the small Cessna buzzing over their heads and the 737's that carry hundreds of thousands of us across the country every day. Appealing to this group can make a difference. (I hope.)

 

Back to your tangent - if we kill the grass roots flying movement then there will be no progression from where we are now to anywhere in the future. It all comes back to the same argument in the end.

 

 

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Lets do this . Ian move this to a new thread please. And lets get organised and stop this right now, we are and can be an effective voice.

 

one of the things that i admire the EAA for is that they are an extremly well organised and very effective at letting their govenment know what they want and how it should be done. we must follow that example.

 

Airsick you write it and pick a time to send it enmass and lets see who amongst our ranks are serious about this.

 

maybe some of our forum members who also belong to the SAAA and other GA groups can rev them up to follow our lead.

 

FAB, Ian.

 

that means 'fully acknowledged broadcast' for those who missed the original runs of Thunderbirds.

 

 

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FAB, Ian.that means 'fully acknowledged broadcast' for those who missed the original runs of Thunderbirds.

Actually Ozzie and from someone that has the Thunderbirds DVDs where in an extra on the DVDs it says that FAB just means "Fabulous" :big_grin:

sorry 099_off_topic.gif.20188a5321221476a2fad1197804b380.gif

 

 

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I have placed some thoughts in the Millennium Master thread which after seeing this thread should possibly have been better placed here.

 

Sorry about that.

 

I will leave it to your discretion as to whether you shift it to this thread, Ian.

 

(Done ROM but as you made your post first in the Millennium Master forum it has come out as the first post of this thread)

 

 

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Lady Penelope had FAB 1 for the number plates on the pink roller so we should give her credit for creating Bling number plates.

 

as Brains would say ' ah F AahhB arr Mr Tracy"

 

 

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099_off_topic.gif.20188a5321221476a2fad1197804b380.gif

 

Unfortunately another factor, bureaucracy, has the inbuilt tendency for a mindless domination that will over the next couple of decades, slowly strangle the Light Sport aircraft concept

OK, I'm gonna go out on a limb here, and balance on my soap box!, but HELLO? 068_angry.gif.cc43c1d4bb0cee77bfbafb87fd434239.gif

Some of you may know that I've been out of the loop, as they say, for over six months while I built a new hangar and had a new house put up, (hey lucky me!) 032_juggle.gif.8567b0317161503e804f8a74227fc1dc.gif

 

When I finally got on line and received the new ops' disc, I could only think,

 

WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON!

 

After years of being a staunch AUF supporter, and reluctantly accepting the loss of the word 'Ultralight' from our vocabulary with the RAAus, I now find that I appear to be a member of a GA organization in disguise. :ah_oh:

 

Caused I think by the continued influx of people priced out of GA, but still wanting all the same privileges, our rulemakers almost seem (to me) to be competing to see who can add the most new rules, instead of defending us from the crap coming at us from CASA, OTS and the other self justifying governmental departments.

 

Point in case; I was invited to the first of these 'Human Factors' courses held in Canberra.

 

After three days of listening to guilt trip gibberish, we were all polite to the guy running the course, waved him off, and I thought that would be the end of it.

 

What also annoyed me was at the end of his presentation, he stated that we were all now trained orators, and could CHARGE people for the privilege of being taught what is basically common sense!

 

Now I find it cast in polycarbonate (what discs are made of) with no prior consideration from the CFI's and instructors that have to handle it.

 

How did we get an instructing system where the curriculum is dictated to us without discussion? 088_censored.gif.2b71e8da9d295ba8f94b998d0f2420b4.gif

 

Has anyone here looked at the Human Factors requirements?

 

Our (well my) students just want to learn to fly planes, not become Psychoanalysts. 031_loopy.gif.e6c12871a67563904dadc7a0d20945bf.gif

 

And it's slated to be included with each BFR!

 

When the guy running the course suggested that you could review one of the eight handouts every two years (charging for it naturally), I asked him, "What if there is a situation covered by one of the books, but someone crashes because they hadn't got to that book yet?"

 

He did a lot of quick talking and side tracking and never directly answered the question, but the impression was 'it's not a problem as the books are basically the same'.

 

Personally, I thought that when you looked past his fancy sponsors and his flashy authoritative sounding agency, I felt the whole thing was a con!

 

If you have access to one of his (and it is only just him!) books, just read the disclaimer on the first page. 024_cool.gif.7a88a3168ebd868f5549631161e2b369.gif

 

What happened to the idea that an CFI / instructor was supposed to be knowledgable, authoritive figure (that has done some form of PMI course) who could instill enough common sense into students / pilots that they wouldn't try to fly ultralights through clouds with empty tanks near mountains at night?

 

I'm getting all raged out here, so I'm throwing this into the fire, but I'm leaving my soap box up on that limb 'cause there's more where this came from. :hittinghead::hittinghead:

 

Arthur.

 

Hey Ian, Im not really sure where this belongs?.... 091_help.gif.c9d9d46309e7eda87084010b3a256229.gif

 

 

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Guest High Plains Drifter

"Human Factors courses held in Canberra....After three days"...

 

HA, think you got it tuff - I'm about to send an employee off to get a self drive vibrating roller ticket (compacts soil for road works) The employee already has Excavator, Loader, etc, tickets.....BUT, it will still be a 40 hour course to get the roller ticket 068_angry.gif.cc43c1d4bb0cee77bfbafb87fd434239.gif

 

Steps to driving a roller; Start; Select forward or reverse; Engage vibrator if required; Operate where employer says; Stay awake.

 

I'm thinking I should send the employee off to learn to fly - it would take less time.

 

 

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What happened to the idea that an CFI / instructor was supposed to be knowledgable, authoritive figure (that has done some form of PMI course) who could instill enough common sense into students / pilots that they wouldn't try to fly ultralights through clouds with empty tanks near mountains at night?

wait - we are allowed to fly in clouds now? or at night?

 

nice to see our membership fees are going towards something worthwhile.

 

 

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An email worth sending around to everyone who is concerned about airport access

 

Airsick you write it and pick a time to send it enmass and lets see who amongst our ranks are serious about this.

Dear fellow pilot and traveller,

 

As the years go by the rights of pilots are eroded by the closure of airports and the restriction of access to those airports that remain open. This doesn’t just affect those who pilot their own aircraft, it will also result in a decline in numbers of student pilots which means we will have difficulty in finding suitably qualified people to pilot the aircraft used in airline operations. Standards will be lowered, safety will decline, costs will increase and we will be forced to find pilots from other markets outside of Australia. It appears that our calls for some sense in these areas are falling on deaf ears so it is about time we got a little louder.

 

I have written a short passage below highlighting the attitude of airport owners using Terry Snow, the owner of Canberra airport, as an example. He is currently implementing measures that severely restrict access to private aircraft despite the fact that we pay him for the privilege. I am sure other airport owners are watching with interest to see what happens. I urge you to copy the italicised passage below and forward it to the following list of recipients between 6am and 8pm on Tuesday 16 September 2008. It is a simple request, just cut and paste then hit send at the right time. Forward this email to your flying buddies or anyone else that has ever used a plane for work or pleasure and encourage them to do the same. We need to get as many people as possible involved so the message is clear. If you care about your ability to jump in a plane and go flying or just want to be able to book a cheap airfare to Bali then you should care about this too. So put it into your diaries and don’t forget to let the powers that be know that you are fed up.

 

“Terry Snow is restricting access to Canberra airport for GA pilots – this is not an isolated incident, similar restrictions are now in place all over the country and more are being implemented every day. GA pilots are the lifeline of aviation in Australia and the key to addressing pilot shortages in this country. The actions of Mr Snow and people like him are putting the future of aviation in Australia at risk. These issues need to be addressed so aviation can continue to grow and provide services so important to a country like Australia where the vast distances between major centres pose unique challenges to travellers.

 

 

 

Closing airports and restricting access to those few air fields that remain is ensuring smaller numbers of Australians will choose piloting as a career of choice. Please help us stop people like Terry Snow from cutting the throat of one of Australia's most important transport links - aviation.â€

 

Recipient list:

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

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[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

[email protected]

 

So forward this onto all your associates that you think might care about this issue.

 

And don’t forget to set a reminder in your phone/calendar so you remember to let everyone know we aren’t happy with the way this is panning out!

 

Cheers,

 

One of many disgruntled aviation enthusiasts.

 

 

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Just reminding EVERYONE that it would be appreciated to take part in this mass email tommorrow

 

speak up or forever be a 'girlyskirt'.

 

UNCLE OZZIE

 

 

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speak up or forever be a 'girlyskirt'.

Nicely put Ozzie!

 

To those of you who wrote a letter and/or forwarded the email thank you for your efforts. For those of you that haven’t I hope your silence doesn’t speak louder than our words. The apathy of flyers is well known but this issue will affect us all. Some of us will have the right to complain given that we made some sort of effort to be heard and make a statement. For the others it isn’t too late. Write the letter, forward the email, this issue isn’t going to just go away with no effort on our part.

 

SHOUT LOUDLY!!!

 

 

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I think we should do this again tommorrow as well.

 

Some of you, may not think that this is worthwhile or that maybe you think that if you 'rock the boat' that maybe you will lose your privliages or find yourself being harrassed but think of it this way if you dont speak up, down the track you will lose your privliges, bit by bit, and you will be harrassed to pay for it all and the pollies seek you types of people out as they know you are a soft touch. And in that sense you are really part of the problem and not the solution. So there!

 

There are also those who don't have an asic card and operate from either there own strips or smaller outlying airfields that have taken part in writing to their MP's they aren't as affected by the madness but see that eventually more security requierments will affect them. So pull together, keep at this. :yin_yan:

 

ozzie

 

 

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I agree with you Ozzie but perhaps let it lie for a few days. Maybe do it again next week? In the meantime I will revise the recipients list, I noticed there were a few bounces there. It might also need revising given the change in the Liberal party today.

 

 

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