Here's a slowed down link of the accident and I still believe that you can see the PIC punt the cyclic forward as he feels it toppling backwards. I guess that he thinks that the back of the rear skids are not on the pad.
In terms of the gust from behind lifting the tail like that, the horizontal stabiliser isn't big enough to create that lifting moment even with consideration of the length of the arm (boom). And from the perspective of the disc a twenty knot guts for example would be the same as going through translational lift which doesn't cause this degree of nose forward. If this did occur at these winds speeds helicopters would be unflyable with this happening all the time.
Another point that was raised on another forum was that the sea state behind the aircraft only shows a few white horses starting so the wing was guesstimated to be under twenty knots. A lot of people commenting on the other forums confused the downwash of the disc for storm winds.
My Zimbabwean two cents....