Anyone with a crystal ball?

[Admin]

Hi All

 

It has been planned for builders to come in and build a new roof on my house but naturally they have to remove the existing one first. They are planning to do this on Wed through to Sat of next week i.e. the 28th to 31st of May.

 

Anyone care to look into their crystal ball and say what the weather will be like in Melbourne at this time

 

 

[Captain]

Weatherzones 28 day foreacast says it looks OK but in between some action .... see http://www.weatherzone.com.au/long-range-forecast/28-day-rain/vic/central

 

 

[Admin]

Thanks Cap't but you have to pay on that site to get the 28day forcast

 

 

[Captain]

Thanks Cap't but you have to pay on that site to get the 28day forcast

This is a bit messy Ian but should explain it. Your dates are clear, but from past experience these long wave patterns can move 2 or 3 days either way as the dates get closer. Hope the below helps a little. I find the issue notes to give a reasonable appreciation of what might be on the way.

 

Weatherzone's Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast

 

Sun

 

Mon

 

Tue

 

Wed

 

Thu

 

Fri

 

Sat

 

20

 

med

 

21

 

low

 

22

 

23

 

24

 

low

 

25

 

low

 

26

 

low

 

27

 

low

 

28

 

29

 

30

 

31

 

Jun 1

 

2

 

3

 

4

 

5

 

6

 

low

 

7

 

high

 

8

 

high

 

9

 

high

 

10

 

low

 

11

 

12

 

13

 

14

 

15

 

low

 

16

 

high

 

Chance of rainfall within district nil

 

< 25% low

 

25% to 50% med

 

50% to 75% high

 

≥ 75%

 

Issue Notes

 

The hemispheric long wave pattern has continued its 4-wave pattern during the past fortnight. Once again the pattern has progressed very slightly eastward owing to a brief blocking event near New Zealand. The pattern is expected to move more regularly over the next few weeks. Troughs are near the longitudes of central Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, central Pacific Ocean and central Atlantic Ocean. Highs and lows in the Australian region should move steadily from west to east over the next few weeks.

 

Summary:

 

Over southern and eastern Australia the major early winter cold front events likely to bring widespread rain are expected about 06-10 June, 15-19 June, 26-29 June and 05-06 July. Events limited to more southern regions are likely about 20-23 May, 24-28 May and 22-23 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26-28 May, 08-09 June, 14-15 June and 24-25 June.

 

Over Western Australia the strongest early winter cold fronts should occur about 28-31 May, 12-14 June and 20-26 June. Lesser events are likely about 19-24 May, 04-08 June and 02-04 July. Rain events moving in from the north are possible about 28-31 May, 13-15 June and 24-26 June.

 

Issued May 19

 

Forecast Explanation

 

This forecast is produced by looking at the movement and strength of the long wave pattern, and its effect on short wave pressure systems such as lows and cold fronts. The daily movement of long and short wave patterns is monitored and projected in order to determine regions where long and short wave troughs are likely to coincide over the coming month.

 

If long and short wave troughs coincide or amplify there is an increased likelihood of a rain event across a large area. Where long and short wave patterns do not coincide, but rather cancel one another, the likelihood of a rain event is reduced.

 

Rain events are presumed to move steadily from west to east and to track the general movement of the long wave pattern, thus providing an indicator of where and when rain is most likely.

 

Regions where troughs are expected to amplify are assigned a high rainfall probability. Whereas regions in which the long and short wave troughs cancel each other have a low rainfall probability. On days where there are no long or short wave troughs affecting a particular region, it is likely to be dry.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Yenn]

From my experience of Melbourne it will be cold and wet with sunny periods and windy. It is known for the four seasons in one day, but unfortunately it never got to Summer when I was there.

 

 

[Guest Macnoz]

confidential and copyright

 

Ian

 

attached is adequate information for you to build an accurate TAF machine.

 

I used this in a flying club in Ireland for many years and can vouch for its accuracy.

 

Since importing it it has been modified (LAME) for southern hemisphere but is still in UTC so you will have to correct for that

 

 

 

[Admin]

Ianattached is adequate information for you to build an accurate TAF machine.

I used this in a flying club in Ireland for many years and can vouch for its accuracy.

 

Since importing it it has been modified (LAME) for southern hemisphere but is still in UTC so you will have to correct for that

So how do you forecast

 

 

[Guest Macnoz]

Easy

 

works on DeMoivres theorm.

 

If the indicator is true for now (n) and mathematically it is highly likely to be true for 1 minutes time, (n+1) ie there wont be a significant change in the weather over the next minute then its for true for all "n".

 

 

[Captain]

So how do you forecast

On the other side of Macnoz's sign is a picture of a house with the roof removed and it says "Historically - a tornado has been thru" and "Predictively - There is a better than average chance of rain".

 

 

 

Ian ..... I suggest that your next port of call should be a PM to Danda or Friarpuck who can have a direct word to the bloke in the Weather Control Tower for you.

 

 

 

On the other hand, Weatherzone still predict it will be clear down there between 28 May and 5 June.

 

 

 

And you can obtain added insurance by organizing a Rec Flying Fly-In as far away from your joint as possible.

 

 

 

Hope this helps.

 

 

 

Geoff

 

 

[Bidgee]

Ian

 

Try this one. It a 28 day forecast. They have added a disclaimer now because it has been wrong so often farmers were getting nasty.

 

http://www.eldersweather.com.au/raindates.jsp?lc=v00

 

Scott

 

 

[Ben Longden]

A fly in? My thoughts exactly. Organise another for Echuca, and its guaranteed to rain here...

 

Ben

 

 

[Admin]

Ok, who's crystal ball ran out of batteries - it's been pouring today and the roof comes off starting at 7:30am tomorrow

 

 

[Matt]

Don't know about tomorrow or your roof, but the next 5 days after that are looking like a great opportunity to get some "air time" :thumb_up: !

 

Thursday Fine. Min 8 Max 17

 

Friday Fine. Min 8 Max 17

 

Saturday Fine. Min 9 Max 18

 

Sunday Fine. Min 6 Max 17

 

Monday Fine. Min 7 Max 18

 

We were thinking of heading over to Ballarat on the weekend today to meet up with some of the folks that lurk over that way - anyone else in the Melbourne area keen on a "destination Ballarat" flight this weekend?

 

 

[Yenn]

Matt. Those temps make me feel better. I was feeling the co;d and have lit the fire to keep the house warm. It is 19.6 deg outside and we havn't seen the sun all day, drizzling rain but only 2mm since yesterday evening. Will probably get down to 12 deg tonight. Winter is here and where you are.