octave

Anyway its been fun but the debate starting to go around in circles.

These are the things I accept until more evidence comes along,

Whilst corvid doesn't kill a large percentage of people who get it, its  high contagion rate means that left uncontrolled it could produce a high number of deaths.

Of those who done die some people will become quite ill and some will have lasting effects.

We can somewhat keep a lid on it with lockdowns however we cant do this forever.

We can reduce the rate of spread with hygiene and mask measures.

The vaccine is relatively safe, not 100% but safer than many other medical interventions.

The vaccine is very effective at reducing death and serious illness.

The vaccine is a safer way to induce immunity than to catch covid.

Both immunity from the vaccine and from covid are not permanent

I don't believe having the vaccine should be mandatory.

I do believe that it is OK for a businesses to require its employers to be vaccinated,

I favor vaccine passports/proof but could probably be swayed with a good argument.  

In the US some health insurance companies are increasing premiums for the unvaccinated. If they crunch the numbers and find that the unvaccinated cost more then I am OK with that. 

Covid should not be political but should rely on hard data. This situation moves fast and things change quickly but the data is the key.  I hold in high regard sources such as the CDC. TGA NEJM Lancet etc.

As an individual it seems that the hard data suggest that statistically my health outlook is better by being vaccinated and following sensible guidelines,

1 minute ago, bull said:

So the rest of these are all full too you reckon ???

No and in fact many patients were transferred to other hospitals.  This is hardly ideal.   Your link refers to 2018 when Westmead ICU was stripped of its accreditation to train junior doctors.       

In August 3 Sydney hospitals were at capacity and patients diverted to hospitals outside the metro area.  These are ambulances that are out of circulation whilst dealing with these situations.

Three Western Sydney hospitals, at capacity, turn away COVID patients overnight

1 minute ago, bull said:

They ARE NOT FULL OF COVID PATIENTS please stop with your outright lies to scaremonger people into getting vaccinated.  Tell the truth and let people decide for themselves ,as they are the ones at risk as all you vaxxed are saying.

There are problems at Wetmead 

 COVID patients queue for hours in ambulances at Westmead Hospital

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/high-covid-caseloads-posing-problems-for-nsw-government-as-health-system-strained/video/fdcfa416fe5ff7e7aeaf5eefa3ce8ffahttps://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/26/nsw-hospitals-warning-nurses-and-staff-flat-out-and-exhausted-as-covid-numbers-soar

Letting it run rampant is not an option.  Looking overseas we can see health systems struggling.

4 minutes ago, bull said:

infections and deseases ,you know like cancer, heart desease ,aids hepititis,sepsis, motor nuerone desease ,or dont these kill people any more since covid??

Yes they do kill people and that is why people are still receiving chemo and radio therapy and research into these areas goes on.  It is not a choice between one or the other.    Also if you are someone with one of those conditions I suspect you would be hoping that when you need it, a hospital bed will be available and the the hospital is not full of covid patients.

Just now, bull said:

correct ,that is why he was vaccinated because he was vunerable as the narrative keeps saying ,to protect others,, yet it still killed him ah......

The vaccination is not 100%  Picking individuals does not tell us much about the overall risk, this is ascertained by looking at larger groups. The important question to be asked is  "is it safer to be vaccinated or unvaccinated."    I believe that the hard evidence shows that it is safer to be vaccinated.    We know that states in the US with lower vax rates are struggling more than states with high vax rate.

And Bill Shakespeare died of what? Hint not covid

Figures from the CDC    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/08/health/severe-breakthrough-cases-cdc-studies/index.html      if you want to go to the research paper  COVID-19-associated hospitalizations among vaccinated and unvaccinated adults ≥18 years – COVID-NET, 13 states, January 1 – July 24, 2021

13 minutes ago, bull said:

Same as i hope you dont live anywhere near my relatives or vunarable friends either as you being vaccinated have now become an untrackable,

my understanding is the the proposed system is one where the app checks your vax status and checks you in. As for unvaccinated people being super spreaders the term super spreader  has definite definition describing a vaccinated person who is out in public as a super spreader makes no more sense than describing an unvaccinated person as a super spreader.

As for vaccinated people believing they 100% protected I suspect the majority understand that no vaccine has ever been 100% effective.

The fact is that covid is unlikely to go away anytime soon.    It seems that a case of covid doesn't provide long term immunity just like the vax although with the vax we will probably be getting yearly boosters.    Whilst the younger unvaccinated may have the odds on their side with a good outcome I would be wondering how the odds would change with each reinfection.

Covid will be around for some time to come, the vaccine does reduce hospitalization and death rates.    If we cant get rid of it we have to make it a less serious disease.   We also have find better treatments for those who do get seriously ill.

4 minutes ago, BirdDog said:

what was the point of keeping the unvaccinated out?  Was there any benefit to that?  

Because the unvaccinated person is more likely to need medical resources.  Sure one person will not make a big difference to the load in ICU but over a whole population the effect could be big.

Just now, bull said:

You asked for sources,,are you now going to tell me that REUTERS is some far right conspiricy publication ???

 

Ummm I don't understand. I am not questioning the article.   The article points out that yes vaccinated people still can get infected but they are far less likely to get seriously ill.   I am not criticizing or questioning that statement.   Why do you think I would say REUTERS is some far right conspiracy when it pretty much supports what I have been saying.

7 minutes ago, bull said:

SINGAPORE, July 23 (Reuters) - Vaccinated individuals accounted for three-quarters of Singapore's COVID-19 infections in the last four weeks, but they were not falling seriously ill, government data showed, as a rapid ramp-up in inoculations leaves fewer people unvaccinated.

While the data shows that vaccines are highly effective in preventing severe cases, it also underscores the risk that even those inoculated could be contagious, so that inoculation alone may not suffice to halt transmission.

Firstly we have to be aware that as the majority of the population is vaccinated then the majority of case will come from the majority of the population.   If say 90% of the population is vaccinated and lets say there are equal numbers of vax vs not vax this does not imply that the vaccine is only 50% effective. apart from that, this fact form your link is pretty clear.   

but they were not falling seriously ill, government data showed, as a rapid ramp-up in inoculations leaves fewer people unvaccinated.

While the data shows that vaccines are highly effective in preventing severe cases, it also underscores the risk that even those inoculated could be contagious, so that inoculation alone may not suffice to halt transmission.

1 minute ago, bull said:

do not realise that they are NOT protected from getting and SPREADING THE COV  and are a real DANGER to others.

You need to present your sources.

13 minutes ago, BirdDog said:

Why are Covid deaths more important?

The number of covid deaths may seem small compared to other deaths but remember the number of covid deaths is markedly reduced by the measures we are taking against it.     in other words covid would dwarf these other causes of death if we just let it rip.   And for some of the other examples,  cancer is not contagious.

As an analogy it is like we are on a boat that is taking on water. 

 The captain wants us to urgently bail water out of the boat.    Most of the passengers can see the sense in this and are putting in a joint effort to save the boat.    A few of the passengers are objecting.  "You cant tell me what to do"   or "you are exaggerating the danger of the boat taking on water" or "we just have to live with a certain amount of water in the boat"  or "you people are just afraid and hysterical, it is just water after all"    or " we are all going to die one day anyway"   or  "I don't mind bailing water out but this bucket this isn't the best bucket, I will just wait for a better bucket"  or  "I will wait to see how successful the people bailing out water are and if it seems to work then I will join in"

Not only this but some the "anti bailers"  want to convince people not to bail even though they are likely to benefit from the majority.   I respect your right not to help bail out the water but just get out of the way and let the rest of us do it.  Don't be surprised if the other passengers judge you.

38 minutes ago, Flightrite said:

Something for the fearful to ponder over! Found on another site:-)Human rights abuse & discrimination by the Govt!

Firstly I do not consider myself to be "fearful".  Am I fearful if I wear a seatbelt when I drive?    It perhaps could be suggested that some are overly fearful of the vaccination.   

I acknowledge your personal right to not get vaccinated however rights do come with responsibilities.      I joined the RAAF many years ago and during recruit course we were fully vaccinated.  You did have the right to refuse however this made you unable to fulfil your duties in terms of being ready to be sent anywhere.   If you did not get vaccinated you were shown the door.  Is this discrimination.

Of course society and the military are not the same thing however jobs come with their own conditions.  An airline pilot has onerous medical requirements.

Here is an actual situation that we have dealt with this week.

My frail elderly mother lives interstate.   Being elderly and frail she gets a subsidized cleaner to come  once a week to help her.    My mother has only just received her second vax.     A couple of weeks ago my mother was talking with the cleaner about corvid and the cleaner said they weren't vaxxed and didn't intend to get vaxxed.  She was anti vax.     I phoned the agency that sent the cleaner and said we wanted someone else who was or intended to get vaccinated.   A different cleaner now visits her.   I don't know whether the first cleaner was sacked or redeployed.  

I respect the right of this cleaner not to get vaccinated but it makes them unsuitable to carry out this line of work especially as it provides services to the elderly.    This is not discrimination as such but it is about being suitable for the job.

4 minutes ago, jackc said:

Nothing ventured……nothing gained 🙂

I learned to fly in Thruster TST with a Rotax 503 back  in 1988.   Greta fun to fly.

1 minute ago, jackc said:

 

The NEJM article is a good read,  there are many others also written in the Covid section of the journal…..

Yep I do attempt to read all of them.

For those who want the long detailed answer  Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant from the new England Journal of Medicine.      Obviously this is a long involved article.    It does pay to follow simple figures like how many of those in ICU or have died are unvaccinated or vaccinated.   

Here is a simple depiction with reference to the situation in the US.

2 minutes ago, jackc said:

Will the current vaccines cover any new strains?  Get used to life on this Earth spending the remainder of your life dealing with some strain of Covid.

The debacle rolls on.  

The evidence is good that at the moment the vaccines are extremely effective at preventing deaths.   It is reasonably likely that new variants will require tweaks to the vaccine just like the yearly flu vaccine.  

1 minute ago, jackc said:

Did you fail to use your blinker last time you did a left turn at an intersection?  I only takes one to cause a car crash.  You did not follow the rules……

The Govts have had over 18 months to fine tune problems to find solutions…….

Are we any further advanced, yes we are but we are stumbling along in many ways.

The problem we face is huge and complex.  It is easy to be an armchair expert and know exactly what should be done.   No country has had a perfect response.  Partly this is because we have not faced anything similar in the recent past.   Throughout the world different governments have used different responses with differing results.    I believe are response  has not been the best but is a long way from the worst.

1 minute ago, jackc said:

A start  would be to fix the uncoordinated tracing system so it’s compatible with ALL states and WORKS.

My understanding is the system becomes overloaded as numbers grow.  Each day in NSW over a thousand new infections are added to the pile to be investigated.

2 minutes ago, jackc said:

 I will bet the login sheets are not processed properly…..many businesses are over loaded with admin stuff for the Govt as it is.

The sheets only need to be processed IF the business becomes an exposure site.  I agree that it is difficult for businesses to administer although if everyone used the QR check in system I don't see why this should create any more work for the business.

7 minutes ago, jackc said:

IF Medicare cards had a digital chip, read stations at each business could be integrated so could scan in/out by waving a Medicare Card at it.  This and other pandemics are the new World, put in a long term solution for a long term fix.

I don't disagree with this but the problem we are struggling with is NOW.  It is a case of what we do tomorrow not what we do in the future (although that is important also)

9 minutes ago, jackc said:

So now you can kick my idea in the guts, at least I have some ideas…….

Reasonable idea however it does not get us out of this current surge.    We do know that those in ICU mostly have not been vaccinated (some may not yet have been offered it).  The average age of those in hospital is younger than in previous waves because older people are more likely to be vaccinated.

What ever the laws or rules the government institutes it comes down to whether individuals take it seriously and abide by them.    The recent outbreak started with a limo driver not following the rules.   

2 minutes ago, jackc said:

It’s not my responsibility to pick up the pieces for a broken system,

What I am talking about is the possibility that if I am in an exospore location I can be informed and do what I can to protect my family from possible infection.   The track and trace system is far from perfect but personally I will do anything to protect my family.    

You seem to be somewhat against the vaccine and critical of the tracking and tracing system so what are you suggesting just let it rip?    What solution would you propose?    

1 hour ago, jackc said:

No log in sheet?   They don’t care, then neither do I……

This makes it sound like you believe the only beneficiary of checking in is the government.  I check in because if the location I have been in turns out to be an exposure site I want to know about it so I can receive timely medical attention but even more importantly so I don't inadvertently infect a loved one or for that matter a stranger.   

39 minutes ago, jackc said:

Not bad out of 7000 million global population……

5.24 Billion doses, 2.1Billion people fully vaccinated.  26.9% of the worlds population fully vaccinated

5.24 Billion vaccine doses administered deaths 14392.

Total confirmed covid cases 214.6 Million Covid deaths 4.4 Million 

7 minutes ago, jackc said:

The Army could establish field hospitals in unused buildings for covid sufferers ONLY, the medical staff  work within that hospital and live in quarantine with all services they need to be provided.

Rotate the medical staff after appropriate monitoring with other staff sources, to give them a break.  Pay them accordingly.

Sounds easy.  One of the issues is that treating a serious covid case requires many specialized health professionals it is not just an issue of ICU beds but staff to operate them.   Health systems all around the world are dealing with the same problems an implementing varying strategies which when successful tend to be copied.  

The problem at the moment seems to be the length of time people are in the community before being diagnosed.  The trackers and tracers are just not able to keep up.

The question is do we want to become a basket case like Florida?