octave

We have already reach over 700 in a day last week and this is with restrictions. remove those restrictions and the numbers can easily exceed those numbers. This is the nature of exponential growth. The number of ICU beds we have not only has to cope with covid patients but the background level of the usual accidents, strokes, heart attacks etc. Yes that is true, but they did this with pretty much the same measures we imposed here. The difference is we dropped the ball with quarantine guards. We now need to regain ground.

I note that this article was written in mid april. We have much better data now regarding excess deaths. I am more than happy to link to the latest information if you wish. People push this idea that it is only the extremely old or people with preexisting conditions who are threatened by this. The idea seems to be that everyone who has a preexisting condition is only weeks away from death anyway. I wonder how many forum members are a few kilos over weight or have high blood pressure these conditions amongst many others do not mean you are about to drop dead. A large portion of our foreign earnings comes from tourism and students from overseas. Even if we opened the borders to these people would they come and spend money here if it is not seen as a safe place? Yes NZ will have to open it's borders but this will not be an open slather approach but it will start with the countries that pose the least threat. It is not clear from the scientific evidence that herd immunity is a viable strategy. It appears that the immunity created by getting the virus does not last very long especially if you only get a mild case. I am reasonably confident that a vaccine of some level (perhaps providing a lower chance of getting it) combined with better treatments such as retrovirals ect will mean that we will be able to get on with life with some sort of normality knowing with some social distancing, hand washing and better treatments the odds will be much better than at the beginning. The death rate has already been lowered with drugs like Remdesivir etc. I am acutely aware of the situation in NZ as my son lives there. After their short but harsh lockdown he now can sail his yacht with friends, compete in motorsport, got to his favourite pub and have friends over for BBQs. This sounds pretty good to me. Time will tell which countries will emerge economically the soonest and in the best condition. We should revisit this in a years time and see which countries have been the most successful.

M61A allowing the virus to spread pretty much unchecked would produce a huge number of people of ALL AGES who may not die but still require hospital care. What do with do with them all? Your characterization of older people who die form covid as being close to death anyway from not looking after themselves is rather absurd. There would some people on this forum who have type 1 diabetes, expendable I guess. There are others here who may be being treated for cancer, expendable? Your right I do reject alternate methods that are proposed from ultra right wing or non medical experts. When I learnt to fly I took my advice from a flying instructor not a hairdresser. Likewise I would not employ a flying instructor to cut my hair. The economy is being harmed but what people forget is that a disease running rampant is also going to massively damage the economy. The cruise ships are not tied up at the docks due to restrictions, the fact is no one wants to go on a cruise while this disease is still spreading rapidly. The economy is inextricably linked to the progress of the virus. the countries that put in the most effort and are self disciplined will be the countries that emerge economically strongest. From The NT Times But beneath the headline figures, Europe flashed promising signs of strength. Germany saw a drop in the numbers of unemployed, surveys found evidence of growing confidence amid an expansion in factory production, while the euro continued to strengthen against the dollar as investment flowed into European markets — signs of improving sentiment. These contrasting fortunes underscored a central truth of a pandemic that has killed more than 670,000 people worldwide: The most significant cause of the economic pain is the virus itself. Governments that have more adeptly controlled its spread have commanded greater confidence from their citizens and investors, putting their economies in better position to recuperate from the worst global downturn since the Great Depression. “There is no economic recovery without a controlled health situation,” said Ángel Talavera, lead eurozone economist at Oxford Economics in London. “It’s not a choice between the two.” Despite Historic Plunge, Europe’s Economy Flashes Signs of Recovery

M61A1 could you explain what you found funny about my post #377? I am more than happy to have a fact based debate but you offered no rational criticism of the points I made. Also no one has really presented their alternate method of handling the situation.

You might want do little fact checking on that. A large number of people infected are in fact health workers who despite the risk continue to look after people. The death rate is not the only relevant concern. As of yesterday there were 456 people in hospital in Victoria 38 of them in ICU, this is with the restrictions that you find so objectionable. We know how many people became infected by one man who travelled from Vic to NSW and went to the pub, extrapolate those numbers to a no restriction scenario and then think about what those hospital numbers would be. Whilst you may consider older people as being dispensable and perhaps younger people who maybe being treated for cancer the question is what would we do with the huge number of people who require hospital care? Send them home to look after themselves?

Then as a country we join with NZ in a travel bubble, this was on the cards but understandably NZ is hanging off on that. NZ is looking at a travel bubble with south pacific nations because they have a low infection rate. Perhaps extending that to Asian nations such as Japan. A gradual build up pf tourism from countries that have done well. Countries that have not managed to reduce infections will be shunned. This will help to begin the rebuild of the economy. Whilst this is happening there will be still some outbreaks but they will be easier to control. Meanwhile perhaps one of the many vaccine trials will be successful. Perhaps retrovirals will improve things. HIVAIDS has no vaccine but is now rarely fatal. That is what I see as being the way forward, what do you say as the correct way forward?

Well not really, there has been a gradual tightening in response as numbers have climbed. We are discussing the tightening of restrictions aren't we? The fact that 40% of people who are supposed to be isolating are found not to be at home shows that people are having difficulties complying or just don't give a toss. I cant see any evidence that those 40% would be any better at isolating if there were not legal implications. If people are breaking isolation because they are bent out of shape by the laws than they obviously don't understand the reasons for staying home. Laws are made for the few who are unable to think for themselves. The fact is that the majority of people understand that driving whilst drunk is extremely hazardous to the driver and to other road users. Because of the small percentage who don't accept this, we all can be inconvenienced by random breath testing. Most people understand and accept this. So should this have been tackled with rules or should we have treated these people like adults and let them make their own decisions? Although every country has it's differing circumstances I just put it to you that NZ did go early and hard with harsh restrictions and is now in an enviable position. Previous generations have made much bigger sacrifices for the public good with much less whinging about it. Those who think it is all unnecessary will just have to accept that until the numbers reduce we are stuck with this, the way out is to address the problem.

New Zealand went hard and early and now enjoys life pretty much as normal. Sometimes you just have to dry your tears and do what is requireds to address the problem.

In the 1980s I was a Musician in the RAAF band. We spent a lot of time touring and our usual mode of transport (other than a bus) was a C130 and occasionally a Caribou as well as other interesting aircraft. The Caribou was USUALLY great fun to fly in. I do remember one occasion though that was not so much fun. It was a flight from RAAF Richmond to RAAF Williamtown. Sometimes they would combine our flight with some kind of training exercise. On this occasion we flew to the coast and then along the coast at low level and it was one of those days. We were tossed around a little too much for most peoples liking. I can remember pretty much all of the band with their heads down and grasping a sick bag. One of our percussionist (we always called him Lurch) claims to have vomited half a dozen times or so. Our band room was at RAAF Richmond was right next to an expanse of grass which was often used for Caribou training. Our old banoom would vibrate pretty badly as they did touch and goes.

I would suggest that the notion that the nation is being destroyed is hysterical nonsense.

Jim I cants see that South Dakota has done especially well with a population of around 860000 and 8867 cases and 134 deaths. New Zealand had 22 deaths from a population of 4.8 million. If we did a rough extrapolation of South Dakota death rates to the population of Australia with we would have 248000 infections of which around 20% may require a bed in hospital. New Zealand is surely the best model.

We talk as if there are only 2 outcomes you get it and its mild, you recover and all is well or you die. From personal perspective I am less concerned with catching it and being amongst the around 1% who die and much more concerned with the suffering whilst recovering and the long term effects. It is known that covid can have long consequences for most organs including the brain. I have less problem with having my life being cut short than surviving but with disablement. You are right that we need to consider all the psychological problems associated with the pandemic. This includes the effects of the measures taken AND the effects of loved ones dying or being seriously ill. I haven't checked but I would bet that there are plenty of studies done in recent weeks. I would also suggest that these negative consequences are considered when enacting restrictions. More rigid restrictions could beat this quicker if the community is willing cooperate. Jim I would like to know what you think the response to covid should be and what examples of successful responses from other countries or perhaps the differing responses from different states in the US you would approve of. Personality I would suggest New Zealand.

The notion that people are not dying of covid but with covid has been well studied. As well as medical evidence a statistic that is always analyzed is the rate of excess mortality. This means comparing the overall mortality rate compared to the same month in previous years. I am more than happy to links to the evidence. The assertion that the increased death rate is from psychological reasons would need more evidence than an amateurs gut feeling. My son lives in NZ and we chat regularly. NZ took firm decisive measures. This was well explained by their leadership and largely accepted amongst the community. After a quite rigid but reasonably short lockdown period my son can now go out for a drinks with friends have people over for a barbecue go sailing compete in motor sport go about his work. He can do this because people did what had to be done. I accept that some people are experiencing more negative consequences than others for financial or physiological reasons. In this country we honour the ANZAC spirit of sacrifice but ask some people to wear a mask or to get tested or to stay home for the greater good and they have meltdown. I would rather our country be like New Zealand than the US or Britain. Since nearly every country is taking firm action and I don't expect that to change anytime soon , perhaps the people who feel the need to minimize the situation should dry their eyes and get on with being part of the solution. Normality will not return until we defeat the virus.

How many tests done in a day is statistically crucial when compared to how many positives turn up. 700 new infections from 10000 tests is not the same as 700 positives from 5000 tests. You can get useful information without knowing how many tests have been performed.

There is plenty of value in testing, sure it is not perfect but if a number of people test positive who have perhaps eaten at the same restaurant then contact tracing can begin. We can start to get people out of circulation before they become symptomatic. No testing regime is perfect and of course there would be people who have been infected but do not get tested. Given that 1 person can infect many people, each person who is taken out of circulation represents many potential infections avoided. Tests also gives us some idea of which strategies work.

Bruce I agree with many of the points you make however the notion that the answer is for people to sue people who pass the disease on is of little comfort. If someone gives me the disease and I die it it is cold comfort that my widow could sue someone. Perhaps we should tackle drink driving by removing the requirement to be sober when driving and just make it easier for victims to sue. As a society we are required to adhere to the rules of that society. I would love to go for my daily walk start bollock naked (in summer) but I would be arrested. Not many people would see this as an outrageous violation of my civil rights. Perhaps folks in London during WW2 should have been able to sue their neighbours for not having black out curtains. I agree with your point 1 Point 2 I am not sure about how easy testing is but I understand there can be quite a cue, this is about testing kit availability and the ability to actually analyze the samples. Masks don't have to be expensive, we have made our own. Not sure what you mean by chemicals. Generally yes we should throw maximum resources at this problem. Point 4 I have no trouble finding the latest information. I am able to check the infection rate in my particular suburb. there are plenty of reliable sources of information. As for those who feel pressured to go to work regardless. I do have some sympathy however for many there is a reasonable level of financial support from the state and federal government. When we go out in public we are subject to many rules that are designed to protect our fellow citizens. By an large most people follow these rules and tend to get justifiably annoyed by for example the cyclist who thinks traffic lights don't apply to them. Perhaps we should let those hard core bike riders zoom along the footpath at top speed and if they do hit someone they could get sued. I think perhaps most people would not find this acceptable. We all want things to get back to normal and if legally requiring people to do the decent thing is the price to be paid, then perhaps we need to man/woman up and just do it.

Positions[edit] AAPS is generally recognized as politically conservative or ultra-conservative,[2][7] and its positions are unorthodox and at wide variance with federal health policy.[8] The Washington Post summarized their beliefs in February 2017 as "doctors should be autonomous in treating their patients — with far fewer government rules, medical quality standards, insurance coverage limits and legal penalties when they make mistakes".[8] It opposed the Social Security Act of 1965 which established Medicare and Medicaid and encouraged member physicians to boycott Medicare and Medicaid.[9] The organization requires its members to sign a "declaration of independence" pledging that they will not work with Medicare, Medicaid, or even private insurance companies.[10] AAPS opposes mandated evidence-based medicine and practice guidelines, opposes abortion and over-the-counter access to emergency contraception and opposes electronic medical records.[10]

Association of American Physicians and Surgeons - Wikipedia

That is way too much information about the Mcarthy household:wink:

interesting article from New Scientist If birds in a truck fly, does the truck get lighter?

I actually believe that Australian governments of all persuasions have done a reasonable job even given the recent spike. I cant think of more than a couple of countries that have done better. The situation is unprecedented so there is no play book for dealing with it. Things change quickly as we learn more so advice does change and this can be difficult to get out to the public so mistakes will be made. The Victorian outbreak was largely due to security gourds at the hotel where people were being quarantined. This failure was not due to messaging I would suggest that a security guard cannot claim that they wouldn't have shagged the person in quarantine if only they had been specifically told that they shouldn't. Likewise I suspect that the other cause of the spread, people going shopping or going back to work whilst awaiting for test results is not about lack of clear information. In the unlikely event that people waiting for test results are not told to quarantine,, it does not take a particularly high IQ or level of awareness to understand the mechanics of infection spread. The medical specialist who lied to evade quarantine (but was caught) knew exactly what he was doing. The guy who hid in the boot of a car at a border crossing knew what he was doing. The fact is that whilst the governments handling of the the pandemic is extremely important until there is a vaccine only the average person can ensure that they do not get the disease or pass it on. We love to blame the government for everything but we are also quick to then complain about a paternalistic government telling us what to do. The real solution is us. The majority of the population are pitching in and doing their bit but unfortunately a minority are not and a small minority can make a huge difference.

I suspect that most travel violations are turned back rather being fined although there have been several high profile fines. An internet search for covid travel violations reveal several.

Victorians slugged more than $10 million in coronavirus fines

For me th bottom line is this - Hairstylists with COVID-19 didn't infect any of their 139 clients. Face masks may be why. We can be reasonably sure that this will have a positive effect on the infection rate. Obsessing about whether a cop is on a power trip or not is secondary to tackling the problem at hand.

It is illogical to say X number of people die of disease Y so therefore it makes no sense to tackle disease Z. This logic would suggest we only tackle one disease at time. Bowel cancer while it is a big killer is not wrecking the economy. Whilst we are on bowel cancer we do routinely offer tests to people over a certain age this has not ceased due to concentrating on coivid. I find it hard to believe that wearing a mask or face covering is a major source of "fear or hysteria." There is plenty of evidence that wearing masks does cut down infections. Earlier in this thread some people who were whining about the lockdown pointed to Asian countries that had done well without harsh lockdowns but it is interesting that these countries also have a high level of wearing masks. Wearing masks does not confer 100% protection it definitely does reduce infections and that is good enough for me. Hairstylists with COVID-19 didn't infect any of their 139 clients. Face masks may be why. I am personally optimistic about a vaccine and in fact there are some promising results in the last few days from the Oxford trials however this cannot be relied upon to be available soon or to be be 100% effective. Just like when we fly our planes we have to employ multiple procedures which all add up to improving safety. Reducing the burden of this disease involves: Isolation, either selective or wide spread when necessary. A major effort to develop and test a vaccine, even a vaccine with a relatively low success rate would be helpful. Better treatment for the disease itself such as Remdesivir or Dexamethasone which reduce the numbers ending being critical. People taking sensible personal measures such as hand washing, masks, working from home where possible.