octave

Probably good advice in terms of mental health. What keeps me involved (at least for the moment) is not because I think I can change their mind but there are probably other forum members who are sitting on the fence not knowing what to think. I would hate them to believe the self proclaimed experts here. I just implore people to use the resources they have to look for information. Beware of confirmation bias. If 9 sources provide information one way, and if there work appears to come from rigorous sources and has references don't just sift though looking for the 1 source that confirms your existing beliefs. CDC, Lancet, numerous other well respected science sources or FB who thought it was flu and can't spell covid.

Some questions for you. Do you believe that the hospital system will cope with the large numbers of hospitalizations that we know are coming from experience from overseas? How many ICU beds are there in Australia and in your state? Do you acknowledge that if you or your children/grandchildren wife etc should become ill from any disease or have a serious accident then ICU beds may not be available. Of course some people are in a panic but some perhaps through fear are in denial. Perhaps you could give me your predictions about how this will play out in Australia, then we can compare your predictions with what actually happens. This way we can see if you are as knowledgeable and educated on this subject as you seem to think. I mean lets face until recently you though it was a flu virus.

The video I posted in #117 covered this but I guess no one actually watched it. Yes the death rate is not huge but it is compressed into a short period of time Approximately 20% who will get it will require a hospital bed and between 9% and 11% will need to be in an intensive care unit. This was the case in italy. I heard in interview with an Italian Doctor who was having to decide who got the ventilator a fit 60 year old or a 30 year old with high blood pressure and a young family. One of the most numerous groups of infected people are health workers themselves. Often the people who work in ICUs Earlier when i posted a link about the young health worker who died someone suggested that they should not have been working due to their asthma. Around 8% of the population suffer from asthma and this also includes health workers. How many doctors are in the older age group? How many health workers have diabetes or hypertension? All of these people would need to protect themselves by not working. Because Australia is a few weeks behind some other countries we are not guessing at what is coming we KNOW what is coming. We can follow the trajectory of Hong Kong or South Korea who tackled it hard an early or we can more like Italy, Spain, or even like the richest country in the world the US which now has the highest number of infections and deaths exceeding China and Italy) Even Trump is now considering a quarantine on New York, New Jersey and Connecticut' Coronavirus: Donald Trump considering quarantine of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut Do you doubting folk honestly believe that the worlds epidemiologist and virologist and medical professionals have suddenly succumbed to a mass delusion? Do you think the governments of the world want their economies to suffer for no reason? Clearly you think your knowledge is superior than the knowledge of the professionals who work in this field. You really don't know much about this subject and neither do I. We all have access to vast amounts of information via the net. However not all information is equal. I get information from The Lancet Journal of Medicine or New Scientist or the CDC and some of you post links from Womens Health. At them moment in the US companies such as Tesla, Ford, GE, Dyson and more are being pressed into service to build respirators, I guess some of you feel that this is a waste of time and money. If in the next few weeks if any of us has a heart attack or a stroke or falls of a ladder or has a car accident we would expect that we will get a bed in a hospital should we need it. For the first time in my lifetime this may not be guaranteed if we go down the Itall, Spain and perhaps US route. None of you have the required knowledge or spent enough time looking at the data (and neither have I)

When we consider what is happening to the economy during lockdown it is all to easy compare the present economic situation with what it would be if covid 19 hadn't occurred. The fact is it has occured. The most useful comparison is how would the economy be if we did not shut things down and let covid run it's course. I am neither an economist or and epidemiologist but when I look at my own little economy it is easy to become dismayed. I am self employed, I provide a service where I am face to face with my customer (not a sex worker but all reasonable offers will be considered). My business has temporarily ceased to operate although I am beginning to operate online. I have to considered how much business I will lose and for how long under different scenarios. If isolation is not done then we are looking at a large number of people being sick to varying degrees. A large surge of infections would overwhelm our health system and from a personal income perspective would be worse than a more sustained event but with less people ill at any one time. In any case I am more inclined to take my advice from epidemiologists, virologists etc rather than what uncle Dave reckons on Facebook.

Whatever the legality the fact is it is the logical and rational thing to do as was done in the flu pandemic of 1919. I will undoubtedly save some lives and it would be moronic for anyone to object given the gravity of the situation. I can't imagine there would be many people objecting to this. Fears of coronavirus spike as backpackers and holidaymakers continue to crowd into Byron Bay and nearby towns

FREEDOM TO TRADE AND MOVE AMONG THE STATES. Australians carrying out trade or commerce between states are guaranteed reasonable freedom of economic regulation. That is for example, you can’t introduce a tariff for products produced in Queensland and then sold in Victoria.

States are shutting their borders to stop coronavirus. Is that actually allowed?

So what is it you think should happen? Give us your prescription.

. There is a shortage of medical staff. Retired medical workers are being called out of retirement. The article highlights a lack of personal protection equipment. Why was he working there? My theory would be he would have known the risks but selflessly did what he could. You seem to be in a state of denial. Although young people are unlikely to get it, it does happen. I am not sure how old you are but it is important to understand that there are other risk factors such as heart disease, hypertension, diabetes or cancer past or present. There are many people who have undiagnosed heart disease or hypertension or diabetes. I heard some rough figures today that said 20% of cases require hospitalisation. If 1 million people get it that means 200000 people requiring a hospital bed. It makes a great difference what time frame these beds are required over hence the need to spread the infection over a longer time frame. Whilst you personally might have a low but not zero chance of complications it still means a hospital system that could be unavailable to you should you have car accident or other illness. This video is by a doctor working in this area although he is in isolation at the moment. He addresses some of the points you raise. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofSLpDQx1bA:608

Do you understand that you would be contagious before you show symptoms.

Will you be unmoved if you get it and give it to someone else who dies? Perhaps even the medical staff who look after you. NYC Nurse Who Treated COVID-19 Patients Dies as One Hospital Reports 13 Deaths in 24 Hours

So what are the complication and fatality statistics? In order for you to declare this an outlier you must surely be al over the statistics. Whilst most yoing people will not be badly affected it us about protecting others, your older family members perhaps? Just as important is protecting the health system.

No not virtue signalling just accuracy. I cant stress enough it is not a flu virus. And in order to distinguish it from other epidemics we need to give it its actual nsme. I am assuming people are finding it difficult to remember SARS cov-2 which causes covid 19. Using innacurate terminology just makes the user look dim and uninformed. Spanish flu is a brilliant example of misleading naming. Is there any particular reason you prefer to cali it "Chinese flu" rather than the actual name?

If I got into conversation with a stranger about aviation and they referred the the aircrafts accelerator rather than the throttle I would probably dismiss what they had to say or at least realize that they were certainly not knowledgeable on the subject. The virus is Cov-2 it causes the Covid 19 illness. The use of inaccurate terminology detracts from any point you are trying to make. I am wondering why you believe china flu or china virus is better or more accurate language to use? Apart from the fact that calling it flu is just incorrect even calling it china virus is hopelessly vague especially after this is over. How will people know whether you are referring to SARS of 2003 or any other illness that was first detected in that country. Oh by the way where did the Spanish flu (N1H1) originate? (probably not where you think)

uumm is that what you think I am saying? Perhaps you could be more specific? By the way I have also lost (at least temporarily) my work and being self employed I do not get any paid benefits. I am not necessarily 100% convinced that I "will be alright Jack" I merely expressed my optimism for a strong economic recovery (for all) when this is over. And it surely goes without saying that I have sympathy for anyone suffering economically from this (as I am, although I am not complaining). I think your interpretation of what I said was a little wide off the mark

So what is "supposition" here? I have not seen any epidemiological evidence of this but perhaps you can point me in the direction of some evidence. The use of the term chinese flu is just dumb, no nothing to do with racism but it is caused by the CoV-2 virus it is not flu.

Very true, the best advice is to do nothing rather than to lock in the losses when the market recovers. I am actually quite optimistic that when this has past the market will recover. I have even bought some shares at what I regard as bargain prices. Interesting times.

I am not trying to convince you of anything Machtuk but it is important to understand that those "weak" or not all extremely old or unwell people. Mortality rate of coronavirus (COVID-19) in Spain as of March 22, 2020, by age group Super-fit cycling fanatic, 40, with no underlying health conditions, battles COVID-19 12-year-old girl with coronavirus is on a ventilator and fighting for her life I would suggest that many forum members would fall into the "weak" category due to being over 60 or having hypertension or perhaps diabetes or who have or have been treated for cancer. I do understand the great damage being done to the economy, My super has lost over 40k but I expect it will bounce back eventually and in any case the money would be irrelevant if I was not here to enjoy it or having to live permanent lung damage.

Why Some COVID-19 Cases Are Worse than Others The latest data from China stem from an analysis of nearly 45,000 confirmed cases, and on the whole suggest that the people most likely to develop severe forms of COVID-19 are those with pre-existing illnesses and the elderly. While less than 1 percent of people who were otherwise healthy died from the disease, the fatality rate for people with cardiovascular disease was 10.5 percent. That figure was 7.3 percent for diabetes patients and around 6 percent for those with chronic respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer. While overall, 2.3 percent of known cases proved fatal—which many experts say is likely an overestimate of the mortality rate, given that many mild cases might go undiagnosed—patients 80 years or older were most at risk, with 14.8 percent of them dying. Deaths occurred in every age group except in children under the age of nine, and, generally speaking, “we see relatively few cases among children,” World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said last week. This pattern of increasing severity with age differs from that of some other viral outbreaks, notably the 1918 flu pandemic, for which mortality was high in young children and in people between 20 and 40 years of age. However, it’s broadly consistent with records of the SARS and MERS coronavirus outbreaks, notes Lisa Gralinski, a virologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “If you’re over fifty or sixty and you have some other health issues and if you’re unlucky enough to be exposed to this virus, it could be very bad,” she says.

My sister just lost her house. You know nothing of her land management practices. Your suggestion that only poorly managed propeties burn is not only untrue but lacks empathy and deceny in my opinion.

Yes insured

Yes, at this stage she is happy to be unhurt but I suppose she will turn her mibd ti what happens next.

My sister lost her house at Quaama but at least wasnt hurt.

Here is the afternoon sun plus Aussie smoke from Wellington NZ note this is not sunset. Apparently much worse on the south island. The last house I live and built (luckily sold it recently) was only just saved, the house before that 360km away is also threatened. My sister lives on a property near Quaama, the fire passed through this area and we cannot contact her. Phones are out my parents are frantic. Not a great start the year

I am on holiday in NZ and today the smoke from Australia has reached here. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/406523/australia-fires-sending-pretty-hefty-smoke-new-zealand-s-way Also the house I built in 1990 and sold 2 years ago had a lucky escape. An ex neighbor sent me this footage KGn4MiLee2MTmHAZ.mp4