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aro

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Everything posted by aro

  1. aro
    Yes, the master needs to disconnect the battery because that is the most likely source of enough current to start a fire. The contactor should be as close as possible to the battery. My understanding is that the Rotax uses a permanent magnet alternator. There is an option for an external alternator, but I don't think I have ever seen one.
  2. aro
    Just to clarify, which quadrants are IFR only? Too bad if you want to travel in that direction VFR!
  3. aro
    I'm not sure what you consider a real war, but the USA has seem many more deaths from COVID-19 than from the whole Vietnam war. In April they had more deaths in a single day than from the entire war in Afghanistan, on multiple days. They are likely to exceed the number of deaths from World War 2 within 2-3 months. The Spanish flu pandemic is estimated to have killed more people than World War 1. So far we have been relatively untouched in Australia but if you talk to people in New York, when people you know start dying things suddenly get real.
  4. aro
    It is true that treatments have improved and we know more about what works and what doesn't. But the death rate is still very high. While some elderly people die quickly, for many people it is 3 weeks or more after infection. When numbers are increasing, comparing infections to deaths gives a misleadingly low death rate. Deaths lag infection numbers by 2-3 weeks. We are going to see some bad numbers appearing in Australia over the next week or 2 and continuing for a month or more, depending on the effectiveness of lockdowns.
  5. aro
    That's how sore throats and sniffles spread, and it's also how COVID spreads. By the time you have symptoms you are likely at your most contagious. The advice is if you have ANY of: fever chills cough sore throat shortness of breath runny nose loss of sense of smell or taste Don't go to work, don't go out other than to get tested, and stay home until you get the result. People waiting to see whether it turns into something more are why we are ending up with 40+ cases in some workplaces. If you are as sick of this pandemic as I am, please do the right thing and make sure you are not contributing to further spread.
  6. aro
    There are some suggestions that it wasn't a balloon, it was a failed BRS parachute from the aircraft. We need more information I think.
  7. aro
    Make sure that your mask does not have holes or a valve. This can result in breathing out the virus if you have coronavirus (COVID-19). https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/face-masks-victoria-covid-19
  8. aro
    The number of bowel cancer cases doesn't double every few days. Infectious diseases are different. The USA is back to 1000 COVID deaths per day, from infection trends it looks likely to increase to 2000 deaths per day. These numbers might be under counted by 30-50% based on the number of deaths compared to a typical year. Several vaccines have reported good trial results in the last week or 2. But the more people who catch the disease before a vaccine is rolled out, the longer it will be to get back to normal when a vaccine is available.
  9. aro
    They do specifically say make sure your mask does not have a valve.
  10. aro
    The majority of the benefit of the mask is to others - if you are infected it keeps your virus out of the air and off surfaces. There is also some protection to the wearer, but it is less than the protection you get from infected people (who may not know they are infected) wearing masks. There is most benefit when everyone is wearing a mask - to get infected particles containing the virus need to pass through 2 masks.
  11. aro
    Glad it was quiet for you, it certainly wasn’t when I was out!
  12. aro
    What does the chart look like over a longer timeframe e.g. 1 year? It looks more like there was a peak around March-April then back to normal (or even a bit above) rather than a decline.
  13. aro
    There has never been a particular need for one in humans until now, so no money to develop one. My understanding is that vaccines are used against coronaviruses in other animals (much cheaper to develop and test I imagine). Immunologists are predicting that multiple different vaccines will be successful out of the 100+ under development. In the last few days I think 2 different vaccines have reported success in phase 1 trials - no safety concerns identified, and antibodies produced against the virus.
  14. aro
    Can you multiply by 10? Case numbers were going up by a factor of 10 about every 2 1/2 weeks. Starting at 3 cases/day, 2.5 weeks later 30 cases/day, 2.5 weeks later around 300 cases/day. Another 2.5 weeks and it's 3,000 cases/day, 2.5 weeks after that it's 30,000 cases/day. 5 weeks without action and we would be in deep trouble. We can't cope with 30,000 new cases every day. That's the same way the disease progresses everywhere, unless you lock down to stop the spread. To deny that would happen here you need to find some reason we are special, and the maths that apply to the rest of the world don't apply to us. (Hint: we're not.) More good news: https://www.newsweek.com/scans-reveal-heart-damage-over-half-covid-19-patients-study-1517293
  15. aro
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-effects/scientists-just-beginning-to-understand-the-many-health-problems-caused-by-covid-19-idUSKBN23X1BZ
  16. aro
    Look at what happened in New York. Italy. Have you e.g. read the guidelines hospitals in these places have used to determine who gets ventilators when they run out? Watch what happens in Florida, Texas, Arizona over the next 2 weeks. It seems to take about 3 months to go from just a few cases to totally overwhelmed, if strong action isn't taken i.e. lockdowns. Victoria is about 6 weeks in. NSW looks like it is about 3-4 weeks behind. When you cry "enough" and lock down cases keep climbing for a couple of weeks, doubling or more again before they start to fall.
  17. aro
    And crowds in shopping centres, opening cafes and bars, gyms etc. doesn't send that message? If anything, the protests have prompted a large number of people to point out that social distancing is still important. Strangely though, many are the same people that say COVID 19 not that bad, or we should just open up and get it over with...
  18. aro
    Indoors is much higher risk than outdoors. How many people have been to shopping centres, bars, cafes, gyms etc since they started reopening? If you're complaining about the BLM protests but not about shopping centres, cafes and gyms, it's not spread of coronavirus that you're worried about, it's BLM.
  19. aro
    Looking on the bright side, we know aircraft owners tend to be shall we say older, and higher risk... If the outbreak really gets out of control 30-40% of aircraft owners are likely to die or lose their medicals. If you can stay healthy, there are likely to be some bargain aircraft around. ?
  20. aro
    We are a long way from herd immunity - probably years before it will make a difference. Herd immunity means the number of cases declines because there are not enough vulnerable people to infect. Herd immunity by mass illness means that the decline in cases starts from a very high number, and will take a long time. Peter Doherty won the Nobel Prize in immunology, and is optimistic that we will have a vaccine within 6-12 months. There are currently well over 100 candidates under development. If Peter Doherty is optimistic, that is enough for me to be optimistic. Also, treatments are improving as we learn more about the effect of the disease. It seems likely that medicine will provide solutions in the medium term. In the meantime, we need to minimise the number of people who die, and the number of people who end up with perhaps permanent disabilities.
  21. aro
    If you're not worried about this virus, you really haven't been paying attention to what is happening in the world.
  22. aro
    The original post was obviously tongue in cheek, not so much some of the replies I think. If you ask me the government has been way too soft. I have been following what is happening in other countries, and there is no reason it won't happen here too. We need to decide, do we want to be in the same position as New Zealand, or the same as the USA or UK? They are running out of storage space for bodies in Texas, and bringing in refrigerated trailers. Many people who survive the disease end up with lung damage, kidney damage, strokes, blood clotting disorders, brain damage. People who ran 1/2 marathons still can't climb a flight of stairs 3 months later. They have recently discovered that x-rays of children who they thought had asymptomatic, mild disease shows lung damage. If we let it run 90% of people are likely to get it eventually. We need to take this more seriously and do whatever it takes to turn things around. Australia should be aiming to look like New Zealand.
  23. aro
    That logic would justify paying a commercial pilot to fly your aircraft (i.e. work). It does not mean you can fly it yourself. As long as you don't need to get out of the aircraft away from home, i.e. it would probably work for Lindsey Fox or anyone else with an airstrip at home, but if you need to go to a public airport, no go.
  24. aro
    The government is under fire for being overly harsh on some of the lowest income segments of the community with the strict public housing towers lockdown. One way to deflect that would be to implement restrictions on (perceived) high income people e.g. pilots. If people keep pushing the boundaries, they are likely to ground private and recreational pilots - and we would get no sympathy from the public. It has happened in other countries. If we were grounded, it might not be lifted for 12 months or more. Please follow the rules, and do not draw undue attention to us!
  25. aro
    You need a CASA Part 61 license. A RAA certificate holder can get a Part 61 RPL by filling in an application form and completing a GA flight review. You can cover CTA in the flight review. I believe that flight review will also count as your RAA flight review. You need a medical but it is not more onerous than required for a PPL to fly in CTA. There are also conditions on the aircraft (see CAO 95.55), but from a license point of view an endorsement is simple and available.
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