Macron banning private jets

[octave]

20 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

Tesla announced a power steering Recall this morning, so they are not immune from things going wrong,

Conveniently this is a software update and can be done over the air. 

 

21 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

and they've just announced they aren't going to be able to finish this year's production.

I haven't seen that announcement 

The prediction is that Tesla will deliver 500k in Q4.  (I tend to follow these things because I own shares in Tesla]  Time will tell whether the target will be met.

 

Tesla Model 3 Maintenance Costs

 

Those who don't trust the technology are not being compelled at least in the foreseeable future to buy an EV.   Most car companies have announced plans to cease ICE production in around 10 years.   Most people here will be able to buy a shiny new ICE vehicle maintain it in to the future. 

 

I am interested in my next vehicle being EV for several reasons.  I have driven 2 EV vehicles (over a couple of weeks)  and they were both delightful to drive.   As I have mentioned before I produce around 2 MWh of excess electricity from my roof.  I could buy a house battery or I could put that money towards an EV with V2L which could act as a house battery. 

 

For me it makes sense.  At this stage for others it probably doesn't, these folks need not buy an EV.     

 

If people regard EVs as some kind of experiment that will succeed or fail then we are not on the leading edge of that experiment.  Our adoption of EVs in this country s one of the slowest in the word for various reasons.   If EVs are a ridiculous failure then they will begin to decline in those countries that have the highest percentage of EVs like Norway.

 

The prediction is that we have 47 years of oil reserves (at current consumption).  One way or the other petrol/diesel/jet fuel will run out.   The thing we should not do is to wait for that point and then scratch our heads and say "what should we do now?"     Technology advances because people try many ideas and those ideas are tested in the real world.  I am not necessarily a fan of biofuels and I don't see them as being a big part of the solution but it is great that people are working on these technologies.     

 

Continuing as we are is not an option, oil reserves are finite.

 

 

 

 

[turboplanner]

28 minutes ago, octave said:

Conveniently this is a software update and can be done over the air. 

They have another poblem in the US where a minor electrical circuit problem cut the power.

to some of the systems including the throttle which failed at it's existing cruise speed. The driver managed to stop the car by overpowering the motors with brakes.

This is not taking a shot at EV, just pointing out that people who tell us EV are maintenance-free don't know what they are talking about.

 

28 minutes ago, octave said:

Those who don't trust the technology are not being compelled at least in the foreseeable future to buy an EV. 

That's true for most companies, but the UK has banned ICE from 2030 while only achieving 2021 full year BEV market share of 7.2 and the UK is short of power.  Hybrid (PHEV) in May 22 figures had declined by 25.5%. 

The ACT has banned ICE after 2035.

 

You can call Norway as a success with 64.5% BEV

Norway has almost unlimited Power generation from hydro and is a very small country, so no range issues, so suited to BEV. Other Scandinavian Countries haven't achieved the same success with Denmark on 21.8% and Finland on 17.07%.

 

Volvo is a manufacturer induced ban, now committed to 100% EV, despite having had ICE customers in many countries. Volvo is owned by Zhejiang Hangzon, China.

 

28 minutes ago, octave said:

 Most car companies have announced plans to cease ICE production in around 10 years.   Most people here will be able to buy a shiny new ICE vehicle maintain it in to the future. 

The UK manufacturers will legally have to cease domestic sales in 2030.

Volvo as we saw are one company.

 

However:

11 Countries are not reporting any new BEV, most after going down the route of a Government buy of a big batch of EV and trialling them., so they will need EV

 

Around 20 Countries are Spinning; not reporting any sales through the normal auto channels, but talking up "EV expected to break new records this year" etc. with no results to show year after year.

It's a good bet they will need ICE.

 

Realistically most of the remainder of the 238 Countries I moniter will not be able to produce enough power by 10 years, and they will need ICE.

28 minutes ago, octave said:

 As I have mentioned before I produce around 2 MWh of excess electricity from my roof.  I could buy a house battery or I could put that money towards an EV with V2L which could act as a house battery. 

Aside from overnight top ups by short commuters which can use the house single phase, if you need to be out all day/highway travelling at 100 km/hr etc. to get a faster rate depends on whether your home has 3 phase power (several thousand dollars, some quoted $7,500) the street has the capacity, the nearest transformer has the capacity. There are now some reasonable figures quoted in kWH requirements for time from zero to full charge, 80% to full charge, top up etc. so at least people know when the vehicle is going to be immobile from 5 to 20 hours. 

Rooftop solar needs to be compatible with the demand. Hopefully your figures and system may offer all round charging flexibility without too much change.

 

28 minutes ago, octave said:

Our adoption of EVs in this country is one of the slowest in the word for various reasons.   

It was this parroted statement that caused me to set up and industry standard benchmark and see for myself; it's BS.  I'd put Australia around the middle, but so many lies are being told that it's not worth extracting the figures.

 

28 minutes ago, octave said:

If EVs are a ridiculous failure then they will begin to decline in those countries that have the highest percentage of EVs like Norway.

No, I've given an example of the EV Trucks I put into service 17 years ago which are still operating because they were correct for their application,  as is Norway with hydro power and 385,000 square kilometres area vs Australia 7.6 million Km2, USA 9 .148 million, China 9.597 million.

28 minutes ago, octave said:

The prediction is that we have 47 years of oil reserves (at current consumption).  One way or the other petrol/diesel/jet fuel will run out. 

That's what people, maybe Fuel Scientists even said in 1979 and it triggered off a panic, the end of which was massive damage to the industry around the world, production of small cars that were rejected and a price that knocked out most of Australia's inland caravan trade. It was orchstrated by a few clever people, and no one did their research. 

These days an ICE uses a fraction of the fuel per kilometre the 1979 models used, and while we passed Peak Oil around 2000 we found a lot more we didn't know about, so we can now go until someone does come up with a working, economic alternative.

 

[Ian]

The issue in the near term isn't reserves its pollution and its impact on climate. If we get another la nina next year that should raise a few eyebrows we might see some talk of a locked in la nina.

[facthunter]

KIA's EV6 just got a Best CAR award not just in ev's but all categories..   Nev

[octave]

1 hour ago, turboplanner said:

Aside from overnight top ups by short commuters which can use the house single phase, if you need to be out all day/highway travelling at 100 km/hr etc. to get a faster rate depends on whether your home has 3 phase power (several thousand dollars, some quoted $7,500) the street has the capacity, the nearest transformer has the capacity. There are now some reasonable figures quoted in kWH requirements for time from zero to full charge, 80% to full charge, top up etc. so at least people know when the vehicle is going to be immobile from 5 to 20 hours. 

Rooftop solar needs to be compatible with the demand. Hopefully your figures and system may offer all round charging flexibility without too much change.

 

 

I did make the point that this would suit me but probably would not suit others. With most of my trips being on the grid and also an asset.  A fleet owner, lets say a courier company doing short trips could charge in the early hours and when they return to the depot can be used to sell some of their remaining electricity back to the grid when the early peak hits. This is already being done overseas and there are trials running here.  New V2G chargers progress Flinders University’s ‘virtual battery’ vision                The Value of The V2G Business Model For an EV Fleet Manager

 

Whilst it is early days and it is probably easy to come up with doubt it is good that people are working on innovation.      

 

1 hour ago, turboplanner said:

I'd put Australia around the middle, but so many lies are being told that it's not worth extracting the figures.

22nd as far as I can see or just above Japan. To be fare there are differences in our use due to long distances some have to travel.    

 

If we get towards the 2030s and EV technology cant do what the people want it to do then they will vote with their wallets.   ICE cars sales will increase whilst ICE cars are still sold and EV will sales decrease. The people will also vote accordingly.   I don't really see any great point of debate here.

 

I think we are in exciting times.    In the past the grid was a one way street, today it is getting smarter with electricity flowing to the house or business premises or car or truck and the ability for it to flow the other way.  

 

1 hour ago, turboplanner said:

These days an ICE uses a fraction of the fuel per kilometre the 1979 models used, and while we passed Peak Oil around 2000 we found a lot more we didn't know about, so we can now go until someone does come up with a working, economic alternative.

I agree ICE technology has improved markedly since the 70s.  Technology tends to do this.   Those improvements were incremental.   The  early Wright brothers aircraft were a bit of a joke in terms of transporting people over a long distance.   The progress that led to the airliners of today was also incremental,   We didn't look at each development and say we should wait until we can build a 747.

 

 Oil is a fantastic resource that can be used for so many useful things.   Burning it if we can help it seems to be the worst thing we can do with it.

 

My expectation is that the next 20 years of technologic development will be of the same magnitude at least as the last 20 years.  I am expecting the cars and airliners of the mid century to be vast improvements of what we have now.   I can be hard to imagine, we tend to be influenced by the "end of history" fallacy.     There is a quote by Neil Armstrong that appeals to me.   "Science has not yet mastered prophecy. We predict too much for the next year and yet far too little for the next 10."

 

 

 

 

 

[octave]

9 minutes ago, Ian said:

he issue in the near term isn't reserves its pollution and its impact on climate. If we get another la nina next year that should raise a few eyebrows we might see some talk of a locked in la nina.

I totally agree. The point of me introducing the finite resource argument is that those who don't accept anthropomorphic climate change still have to deal with the fact after squeeze the last drop of crude oil out of the earth we are still left with no oil for the chemical industries and a need to power our cars and jets in another way. 

[facthunter]

A little over 100 years ago people were saying those noisy contraptions will never replace the Horse. and people got fuel  made from killing whales in tins and bottles..   Nev

[onetrack]

Peter - Yes, those Toyota asset figures should have been $B, not $M. Unfortunately, those Toyota figures I was given are seemingly incorrect - as always, "getting the overall picture" of the finances of a global corporation is not always easy. There is "long term debt" and "total liabilities", which are vastly different measurements, as we all know.

 

I think I've found a better source in the link below, that shows both the total liabilities and total assets of Toyota in a more comprehensive fashion.

While Toyotas debt has increased steadily over the last few years, its assets have also increased accordingly. Both have declined by a few percent this year.

 

The figures below show Toyotas total assets peaked at US$602B at 31/03/2022, but have gone down to US$536B as at 30/09/2022. 

In comparison, Toyotas "total liabilities" peaked at US$360B at 31/03/2022, and have reduced to US$327B as at 30/09/2022.

They still have US$67B in cash on hand, a tidy sum by anyones measure - but down from a peak of US$87B at 31/03/2021.

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TM/toyota/total-assets

 

Edited November 17, 2022 by onetrack

[kgwilson]

Toyota only rolled out its first pure EV in May this year after being a leader in the Hybrid market for a decade and putting a lot of R&D effort in to Hydrogen fuel cell development. All of Toyotas rivals are way ahead in the BEV area so Toyota is playing catch up. Their plan is for 3.5 million BEVs by 2030 & 30 new BEV models in that same period.

 

BEV sales world wide have increased from 130,000  in 2012 to 6.6 million in 2021. This is a 100% increase over 2020 when the world market contracted except for EVs which increased to 3 million from 2.2 million the year before. EVs now make up around 9% of car sales world wide. Car companies who do not embrace the change will not survive.

[Bruce Tuncks]

I think it was going to happen anyway, but climate change spurred it on. Model planes are nearly all electric these days, and it was not driven by government action at all. It was driven by the better performance of electric models, and the ability to turn them on and off at will.

Electric cars should be a lot cheaper than the equivalent IC car, which after all already has an electric starter motor.

I have been changing a farm buggy over to electric and it is way simpler stuff. The exhaust system alone on an IC car is quite complex, and that is just one of many systems.

The old Ghan train has been a diesel-electric for more than 50 years, and this was driven by costings, not by what was good for the environment.

My next car will be electric, and I hope it will be a lot cheaper than now. 

[turboplanner]

1 hour ago, Bruce Tuncks said:

The old Ghan train has been a diesel-electric for more than 50 years, and this was driven by costings, not by what was good for the environment.

Diesel Electric is a different technology; Batteries are the big issue with BEV; we need an invention breakthrough to get range.

 

Diesel electric uses several base principles very effectively.

 

Startability is the first big issue to be solved in a big train. Diesel is not good at this; truck drivers use skill and overall gear reduction to multiply the engine torque enough to move the combination from a standing start. The downside is that the moment the vehicle starts to move, the torque demand shifts to gradeability and often the driver is making a choice between shifting up through every gear, which is slow or skip shifting. Niew drivers can break transmissions.

 

With diesel electric the engine winds up to torque generating the power the electric motors need for their characteristic of providing maximum torque at startability, then smoothly mooving the train off.

 

When the train gets up to cruise speed the diesel supplies the horsepower necessary to maintain cruise.

 

So it's the best of both worlds. Surprisingly no one is really looking at the hypocrisy of not banning diesel electric locomotives.

 

With a BEV you are taking exponentially more charge out of the battery for chargeability, and for 100 km/hr air speed.

 

[kgwilson]

2 hours ago, turboplanner said:

 Batteries are the big issue with BEV; we need an invention breakthrough to get range.

It is already here. The CATL Qilin CTP battery uses LiFePo4 with integrated cooling to allow fast charging without degradation and higher energy density. The prototypes have already demonstrated this with Geely's Zeekr-1 achieving more than 1000km on a charge and the ability to charge from 0 to 80% in 5-10 minutes using a 350 kW charger. It went in to production in China in September and is to be released in Europe in Q2 of 2023.

[onetrack]

The day I believe the exaggerated claims by the Chinese for electrical output of every single thing they make, will be a wondrous day indeed. The Chinese have long believed that those who tell the biggest lies about performance, win the most sales.

 

Every single genset produced by the Chinese has overstated output and ratings, and their engines are no different. The Chinese know there's no penalty in overstating performance, it's just another "marketing advantage".

 

Edited November 17, 2022 by onetrack

[Thruster88]

6 hours ago, kgwilson said:

It is already here. The CATL Qilin CTP battery uses LiFePo4 with integrated cooling to allow fast charging without degradation and higher energy density. The prototypes have already demonstrated this with Geely's Zeekr-1 achieving more than 1000km on a charge and the ability to charge from 0 to 80% in 5-10 minutes using a 350 kW charger. It went in to production in China in September and is to be released in Europe in Q2 of 2023.

The calculator says 10mins/60x350=58kwh. 58/0.8=73kwh battery. A 73kwh battery will not drive a car this big and heavy 1000 km.

 

The 001 is based on the Sustainable Experience Architecture platform specific to the electric models of the Geely group.^[4]

PerformanceEdit

The top of the trim variant of the 001 has electric motors on both the front and rear axle, putting out a combined output of 536 hp (400 kW; 543 PS) and 700 N⋅m (516 lb⋅ft) of torque and can propel the 001 from 0-100 km/h (0-62 mph) in 3.8 seconds, speed max over 200 km/h (120 mph).^[5] Zeekr is claiming that the 001 can run on a full charge for up to 700 km (435 mi), and its charging setup will give it 120 km (75 mi) worth of power in just five minutes of charging time.^[6]

[Ian]

6 hours ago, onetrack said:

The day I believe the exaggerated claims by the Chinese for electrical output of every single thing they make, will be a wondrous day indeed. The Chinese have long believed that those who tell the biggest lies about performance, win the most sales.

 

Every single genset produced by the Chinese has overstated output and ratings, and their engines are no different. The Chinese know there's no penalty in overstating performance, it's just another "marketing advantage".

One thing that I can say about the Chinese economy is that they make a lot of stuff. The Australian economy appears to be based on digging stuff up, growing stuff, moving it around and housing. Housing doesn't actually produce anything except debt and yet we have a tax system which prioritises it. 

The only thing which weighs against the Chinese is their Government which in the long term will be unable to manage the complexity of their economy efficiently

 

[turboplanner]

https://www.gbnews.uk/travel/charge-rage-sweeps-across-uk-as-electric-car-owners-fight-for-electricity/390309?fbclid=IwAR0uxlhcnN22AA4UB23ghGHNYeeQ9Ftebo2aky2V21YdoBXL4rmmJISUe5o

 

Edited November 17, 2022 by turboplanner

[Ian]

Road rage at petrol station.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/knife-pulled-out-during-petrol-station-confrontation/5c3153d2-6f53-4323-bd3c-13f8a56541ac

Rage at airport

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4183992/Air-passengers-fight-queue-jumping-row.html

Rage at resturant

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/mum-broke-womans-elbow-punched-8860869

 

Yes, people don't like to queue, and you'd expect with a significant increase in vehicles that as charging point patronage increases.

However the situation is Australia is significantly different in Australia, where garages are commonplace so changing can occur at home. 

 

For instance you probably have a garage and if you bought an BEV you'd also get a charger installed at home. Most people will do the same.

 

[Bruce Tuncks]

The problem will be seen when ev's are more common. There is not enough energy in the electricity system to work all the chargers.

To show this, stand by a big road and think of the combined energy of all the engines. It way exceeds what the power station is putting in.

I reckon we will be using solar electricity to charge the ev batteries. It will take about 17 and it will need (another)  battery if you want to charge your ev overnight.

There is a possibility that the charging could occur at work if they invest in enough solar panels.

[turboplanner]

57 minutes ago, Ian said:

However the situation is Australia is significantly different in Australia, where garages are commonplace so changing can occur at home. 

 

For instance you probably have a garage and if you bought an BEV you'd also get a charger installed at home. Most people will do the same.

 

You two are talking about the common knowledge and situation of about ten years ago. We now have good real life history of vehicles a long way up the scale from the Nissan Leaf and demand patterns, and a similar history of charging units, methods, speeds, power, charging networks, home charging capacity, street capacity, street to transformer, transformer to grid and grid capacity in detail. Details such as the mew MG with a LH Plug socket, in a one way street with the traffic's mirrors passing the socket, a beautiful  plug, moulded to look like a petrol nozzle and trigger, a heavy cable protruding beyond the handpiece, curving down, running along the road, across the footpath and through the front garden to the house. So EV is likely to invonve Local Government Planning too.

[Old Koreelah]

1 hour ago, Ian said:

However the situation is Australia is significantly different in Australia, where garages are commonplace so changing can occur at home…

I’d love a dollar for ever home garage I’ve seen which is full of junk, with the car sitting in the driveway.

[turboplanner]

8 minutes ago, Old Koreelah said:

I’d love a dollar for ever home garage I’ve seen which is full of junk, with the car sitting in the driveway.

In many cases there are businesses operating in the garages, or they are rented as spare rooms, or Multi story blocks of units. Four near me vary from 160 units to 220 units. Your  full garages and all the people I've mentioned will need a change to the Planning Scheme at State and Local Government permits plus an infrastructure of charging modules plus non-intrusive safe cables and plugs plus street to transformer upgrade plus transformer to substation update. All of it doable but I wonder how many Councils, green or otherwise have started planning for this yet.

[turboplanner]

1 hour ago, Bruce Tuncks said:

The problem will be seen when ev's are more common. There is not enough energy in the electricity system to work all the chargers.

To show this, stand by a big road and think of the combined energy of all the engines. It way exceeds what the power station is putting in.

I reckon we will be using solar electricity to charge the ev batteries. It will take about 17 and it will need (another)  battery if you want to charge your ev overnight.

There is a possibility that the charging could occur at work if they invest in enough solar panels.

Work the figures, work the figures.

In the 1980s we were going to charge the cars with solar panels on the roof. I thought we could handle it easy with semi trailers, the trailer having a huge roof area.

[onetrack]

Then there's the inescapable fact that substantial and increasing numbers of people now live in apartments, with no personal garaging. They often park in the street.

If they have apartment parking, that means the entire apartment parking area will have to be wired for chargers. I hate to think about the level of cost for doing that, across the country.

 

Of course, a vast increase in charging points means a vast increase in demand for copper wiring - but the copper is already in huge demand for building EV's!

Then there's the massive demand for all types of minerals and other raw material inputs for the major U.S. infrastructure replacement programme, being put into action by the Biden Govt.

 

Add to that, the plans for China to dominate the world with EV production - just domestic demand for EV's in China would be a staggering number - let alone the rest of the world.

And of course, China is still proceeding with major infrastructure investments as well - housing, railways, power stations, manufacturing investments.

 

Then on top of all this, is the massive demand for materials for solar panels, wind turbines, and any other form of renewable power generation programme.

The article below crunches the actual numbers for raw material demand, from the mining viewpoint. It's frightening to see the shortfall in raw materials and raw mineral demand.

 

The only way the world can continue on its projected course of a vast increase in EV's, and a vast increase in renewable power generation, is via a vast increase in funding poured into recycling.

But nowhere do I see that happening. Recycling is regarded as the poor cousin of industry, and is looked down on, and receives minimal Govt support.

 

Councils are one of the few areas where they recognise where there's a need for a vast level of increase in recycling efforts. But the councils are not getting that level of support, that they need.

The W.A. Govt has just given a $7M grant to a private company for recycling used tyres. This is part of $20M in grants from the State Govt for a recycling boost for tyres and plastics.

Good on both the State Govt and the company, for doing something about the used tyre and waste plastic problem.

But the new tyre recycling plant will only recycle 9000 tyres annually - that's a drop in the ocean as regards the number of tyres sold annually.

 

In the meantime, no-one is addressing the need for a major investment in making sure that our vital minerals that are needed for EV's and renewable energy projects, are not going to landfill.

 

https://www.mining.com/web/building-more-mines-the-devil-is-in-the-details/

 

Edited November 18, 2022 by onetrack

[octave]

4 hours ago, turboplanner said:

Details such as the mew MG with a LH Plug socket,

Sorry to be pedantic but isn't the MG socket is in the front of the vehicle  

Edited November 18, 2022 by octave

[turboplanner]

4 minutes ago, octave said:

Sorry to be pedantic but isn't the MG socket is in the front of the vehicle  

I could be wrong, I was looking at the back of the car and the cable so it could have been another make; the position of LH Rear was correct though.