KRviator Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Two things:1. The claim was GA is finished as we know it; just a simple check of Moorabbin movements shows stability of movements. If you want to add SE Melbourne’s population increase, that line will go down slightly, however; 2 Moorabbin would be getting almost none of the new mining income. A stand alone terminal was built for Bass Strait commercial helicopters, and traffic has increased massively at Queensand and WA mining markets, so a total Australian GA graph may in fact be going up. How many of those Moorabbin movements are training foreign students though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turboplanner Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 How many of those Moorabbin movements are training foreign students though? It doesn't matter; Monash University went through income doldrums, and started marketing overseas, Monash now process a huge volume of students from Malaysia, Singapore, China etc, and is prospering with the money to build its own Cyclatron. They got out and made it happen. The Moorabbin management is not dissimilar, although there's a little too much emphasis on building commercial facilities, which affects aviation safety. I have a book somewhere written by a South Australian pioneer aviator who started out at Glenelg in the early 1920s. He bough an aircraft, and started in the aviation business, which at the time was almost totally centred around giving joyflights. To get new customers in the operators had to fly from town to town like circus performers, and maintain the aircraft themselves. He describes one weekend at Clare or Kapunda where, late in a day of successfull joyflights, his engine seized. He pulled off the cylinder, and went to the local blacksmith's where he had a new piston cast and machined, fixed the engine and went on his way. Later on he described how there was less and less business and the industry looked like it was coming to a close as a temporary wonder. Fortunately not everyone took that view. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biggles Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 ...... where he had a new piston cast and machined Don't tell me, ....... ' and got it weighed on the local butchers scales' !.... Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KRviator Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 It doesn't matter; Monash University went through income doldrums, and started marketing overseas, Monash now process a huge volume of students from Malaysia, Singapore, China etc, and is prospering with the money to build its own Cyclatron. They got out and made it happen. Of course it matters. Australian GA is dying - and has been for years. These students that Monash - and others - are training do not go on to fly in Australia, they bugger off back to their respective home countries and fly there. Additionally IMHO, there's a huge difference between the likes of these sausage factories with their international students and integrated courses that are propping up the movement figures, vs your average weekend warriors that either no longer fly themselves, or are not being replaced by the current Gen Y'ers and Millenials.Have a look at your average aero club - there aren't an awful lot of young folk coming through these days, most members seem to be at least 50 or older...And that's been the case since I first joined the DDAC 20 years ago! I reckon it'd be an interesting poll on RecFlying, if we asked everyone their age bracket. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naremman Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Akin China Southern's College at Merridan WA? Was my initial thought too, though would seek the facility at MERREDIN. Fully equipped airline training facility that was perfectly suitable, at least location wise, for China Southern Airlines and was operational until about a year ago. Low airfield rental charges, no movement charges and bugger all CTA or PRDs to impede training. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turboplanner Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Don't tell me, ....... ' and got it weighed on the local butchers scales' !.... Bob I must see if I can find the book; he described what they did which included casting a new piston. By then, country blacksmiths would have been milling gears and turning up pistons for steam engines and pumps, wouldn’ t think they were into weights yet, operating rpm would still have been very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turboplanner Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Of course it matters. Australian GA is dying - and has been for years. These students that Monash - and others - are training do not go on to fly in Australia, they bugger off back to their respective home countries and fly there. Additionally IMHO, there's a huge difference between the likes of these sausage factories with their international students and integrated courses that are propping up the movement figures, vs your average weekend warriors that either no longer fly themselves, or are not being replaced by the current Gen Y'ers and Millenials.Have a look at your average aero club - there aren't an awful lot of young folk coming through these days, most members seem to be at least 50 or older...And that's been the case since I first joined the DDAC 20 years ago! I reckon it'd be an interesting poll on RecFlying, if we asked everyone their age bracket. What is it that you can’t do, or are restricted from doing KR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red750 Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 Was my initial thought too, though would seek the facility at MERREDIN. Sorry about the spelling. Was going from memory - didn't check it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KRviator Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 What is it that you can’t do, or are restricted from doing KR? Can't fly in a GA plane less than 30-40 years old at most aero clubs.Can't fly at my local airport without paying 600/hr for circuits IN MY OWN PLANE. Can't add an experimental EFIS to a certified plane without CAR21M EO, which leads to; Can't fly behind an EFIS at most aero clubs, stuck with antiquated vacuum gauges. Require TSO'd GNSS position source for ADS-B. Can't use Dynon/Garmin solutions for experimentals. Can't import a US plane at a reasonable price due GST being applied to landed cost and exchange rate. Can't buy a reasonably-priced NEW aircraft anymore, though this is a worldwide problem now... Airports closing, being sold off, or otherwise being rendered inaccessible due cost/insurance/admin issues. Can't owner-produce parts for certified aircraft. Can't owner-maintain certified aircraft for private ops. Can't access an RPT airport without an ASIC. Which you now have to renew in person....at whatever cost every 2 years. Can't get hangarage at reasonable rates at an awful lot of airports due council/owner/insurance costs stifling investment. And I'm sure others will have plenty more examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turboplanner Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Can't fly in a GA plane less than 30-40 years old at most aero clubs.Can't fly at my local airport without paying 600/hr for circuits IN MY OWN PLANE. Can't add an experimental EFIS to a certified plane without CAR21M EO, which leads to; Can't fly behind an EFIS at most aero clubs, stuck with antiquated vacuum gauges. Require TSO'd GNSS position source for ADS-B. Can't use Dynon/Garmin solutions for experimentals. Can't import a US plane at a reasonable price due GST being applied to landed cost and exchange rate. Can't buy a reasonably-priced NEW aircraft anymore, though this is a worldwide problem now... Airports closing, being sold off, or otherwise being rendered inaccessible due cost/insurance/admin issues. Can't owner-produce parts for certified aircraft. Can't owner-maintain certified aircraft for private ops. Can't access an RPT airport without an ASIC. Which you now have to renew in person....at whatever cost every 2 years. Can't get hangarage at reasonable rates at an awful lot of airports due council/owner/insurance costs stifling investment. And I'm sure others will have plenty more examples. Thanks for the detail; some of these are generic, some are individual issues. I’ll go right through them but out on the road now. I did an exercise a while back and found a new C172 with glass was around $350,000 - about the same amount of weekly wages it was in the 1970s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
facthunter Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 I think it's not as much fun. Too much regulation. It IS much more paperwork than it was. People don't hang around aero clubs and when I go past Benalla there's hardly any activity. Same at Porepunka and Wangaratta.. Dead. Nev 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turboplanner Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 I think it's not as much fun. Too much regulation. It IS much more paperwork than it was. People don't hang around aero clubs and when I go past Benalla there's hardly any activity. Same at Porepunka and Wangaratta.. Dead. Nev For a GA pilot hiring a GA aircraft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
facthunter Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Not just the act of hiring a plane. That could be simple enough if you have a regular provider. Just keeping up with the changes that don't seem to achieve any real improvement. Uncertainties with future costs to owners and restiriction of privileges. Example the 2 year expiry of qualifications. Nev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turboplanner Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Whatever the reason is for the current level of activity there is in GA, there is a current level of activity. Within that level, student pilots have been progressing from PPL to CPL, providing a source of instructors as they build their hours up, and then going on to commercial activities, like charter to mining areas to build up enough hours and experience for the likes of Qantas to be interested in hiring them. This announcement of Qantas to set up their own in - house training, could mean that prospective airline pilots will go straight to Qantas to be trained in Qantas corporate requirements from the very start of their flying. This is likely to have an impact on the current level of activity of the GA sector, because the pipeline of training which resulted in Qantas placements is likely to dry up, unless Qantas does not intend training all pilots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fly_tornado Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Maybe news just cuts and pastes the story for different papers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibby Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Thanks for the detail; some of these are generic, some are individual issues. I’ll go right through them but out on the road now. I did an exercise a while back and found a new C172 with glass was around $350,000 - about the same amount of weekly wages it was in the 1970s. If you can buy a brand new 172 for $350k, I would buy 20 of them and on sell them. Base price US$370k, convert the Ausy dollar makes around $450k, plus freight, plus GST. You are looking at close to $500k A 1981 172p was US$34k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KRviator Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 I’ll go right through them but out on the road now. I did an exercise a while back and found a new C172 with glass was around $350,000 - about the same amount of weekly wages it was in the 1970s. If I've used the right calculators, a new C172P cost $34,000USD brand new in 1981. According to the RBA, the exchange rate was 91.75c/USD in 1983, which I've used as the conversion rate, so a new P-model would have cost $37,000AUD (I haven't updated the purchase price from '81-83 to give the benefit of the doubt to the Cessna...). Australian inflation since then works out to 214% or from $37000 ->$116,000AUD for a brand-new C172, excluding GST and import duties...According to several articles, you could buy a house for a smidgen over $80,000 in the early '80's, with an average annual income of $21,000, or a roughly 4:1 price/income ratio. In 2015 the average Sydney house price is now over $900K with an income of $78,000, or an 11.5:1 ratio. Based on a $37,000 172 and a $21,000 salary, a new 172 these days "should" cost around $137,000 AUD. The lack of disposable income - a direct result of rampant housing & cost-of-living increases - means most working people simply cannot afford luxuries like flying - particularly on an average salary around $80,000. It is only when you've been able to pay off your mortgage are you likely to be able to afford such luxuries. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 If I've used the right calculators, a new C172P cost $34,000USD brand new in 1981. According to the RBA, the exchange rate was 91.75c/USD in 1983, which I've used as the conversion rate, so a new P-model would have cost $37,000AUD (I haven't updated the purchase price from '81-83 to give the benefit of the doubt to the Cessna...). Australian inflation since then works out to 214% or from $37000 ->$116,000AUD for a brand-new C172, excluding GST and import duties...According to several articles, you could buy a house for a smidgen over $80,000 in the early '80's, with an average annual income of $21,000, or a roughly 4:1 price/income ratio. In 2015 the average Sydney house price is now over $900K with an income of $78,000, or an 11.5:1 ratio. Based on a $37,000 172 and a $21,000 salary, a new 172 these days "should" cost around $137,000 AUD. The lack of disposable income - a direct result of rampant housing & cost-of-living increases - means most working people simply cannot afford luxuries like flying - particularly on an average salary around $80,000. It is only when you've been able to pay off your mortgage are you likely to be able to afford such luxuries. Excellent detective work thereMost in the GA industry know that GA is stuffed, CASA and a few other factors like you mentioned are responsible for the decline! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turboplanner Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Excellent detective work thereMost in the GA industry know that GA is stuffed, CASA and a few other factors like you mentioned are responsible for the decline! Well if GA is stuffed, the QANTAS decision isn’t going to make any difference is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Well if GA is stuffed, the QANTAS decision isn’t going to make any difference is it. Never said it would. You didn't answer my question re what yr GA commercial background is as I've not met a single pilot in the industry that says anything other than its stuffed at the grass roots level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happyflyer Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 If GA wasn’t stuffed Qantas wouldn’t need to build an academy.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turboplanner Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 So where did the current QANTAS intake come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happyflyer Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 So where did the current QANTAS intake come from? RAAF a bit recently. And they’re not happy. Before that Qantas haven’t hired for years. Now there isn’t enough in GA to feed them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 S RAAF a bit recently. And they’re not happy. Before that Qantas haven’t hired for years. Now there isn’t enough in GA to feed them. Spot on!! Some just don't get it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biggles Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Rocky mayor to bid for $20million pilot training facility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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