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Jerry_Atrick

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Everything posted by Jerry_Atrick

  1. I wold think there might be some wriggle room in the prices; TB-20s and 21s often come to the market at higher prices as owners like to keep them.. The one on Controller.com has a TT of 890hrs and 150 on a new engne.. That leaves a lot of time left... and assuming all checks out OK on the airframe, bits aren't going to start to require replacement for some time. As it's N reg, you can get a pigy back FAA licence - would you need to modify it for Aus conditions? In the UK we can import them with VAT only.. no need to convert to European spec (even on a EASA licence, though if we want to fly internationally, we have to have the FAA piggy back licence as a minimum). Although, the radios wold have to be upgraded to 8.33khz spacing. Another option, although a little slower, is the Piper Dakota.. 143kt cruise (book), fixed gear 235hp. Also not too common as owners love them... they are sturdy (er.. except for that spar inspection AD), not often used by schools and generally well maintained.. Comfy touring 4 seater with some speed.. And there is the AA5B Tiger is 140kts.. although these sound a little too slow for your mission. Another a/c to think about is the Rockwell Commander 114- book cruise at 160kts, and one for sale in VIc for 125K.. Seems cheap - they advertise here for about as many £. No idea of maintenance costs, etc. BTW, Ian Baillee a/c sales, amongst others, are looking for a new home and that may be the reason they have been unresponsive.. https://www.australianflying.com.au/latest/eviction-notices-sent-to-moorabbin-operators
  2. Have you considered at TB21-TC which has something like a 170kt 75% cruise... the TB-20s are about 150kt.. They provide great visibility, then Gen Twos are roomy and you can often (in the northern hemisphere)get them kitted out with a Farmin EFIS. There aren't too many for sale, and you will prob have to look overseas for them... I have flown TB-20s, Bonanzas, PA32s (Cherokee 6s and Lances), Commanche (250s), and of these, the TB20s are the most comfy. The TB21TC is a turbo-charged TB20. Also, Socata still manufacture spares for them, but they can be pricey. I wouldn't worry about whether it is a 4 or 6 seater... if you have at least 4 seats (and it can take 4 adults and luggage with a decent amount of fuel), you have your mission a/c... If you would consider 6 seaters, the PA32 range is very good also... The 235 versions are OK.. but I would go for the 300. And still has a spares network. Best of luck...
  3. Here is the link to the FAA Manuals.. Note, there are different publications that cover different parts of the theory requirement. Note that weather and Nav will be northen hemisphere based.and of course, charts and any procedures/air law will be USA based. https://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/handbooks_manuals/aviation/ A quick check of ebay (aus) has some Trevor Thom manuals for sale...
  4. Sadly, Sully isn't a presidential candidate..
  5. Jerry_Atrick

    Why I don't fly now

    Hi Ian, Very sorry to hear about the deterioration to your eyes.. I can only echo what has already been sent... Thanks for maintaining the site despite various challenges - this one the most important.. All the very best wishes, Lance
  6. That looks like the icon.. .I think I would rather just do the real thing looking at the potential cost of that ;-)
  7. @Bennyboy320 - can't seen to view the attachments..
  8. Is this a confession? Oh.. there are a couple of lines that I shall foresake...
  9. Is that all we have to choose from? I have about 7 of them... Also... Forgot to check NOTAMS and almost breached a royal flight (you don't have then in Aus, but when a Royal wants to take a jolly, there is a 10nm radius of moving class D airspace from the point of the aircraft... ) Also took off after airport hours (allowed) when GA was shut down (not allowed) in the South East of the UK because Obama decided he wanted to helictoper in to see Stonehenge after a G20 summit in Wales or something. Thankfully I was able to talk my way out of the possible licence suspension as when I contacted F'Borough, they sent me back to my airfield, whcih I complied with and the NOTAM was at short notice because the decision by Obama to see Stonehenge was also at short notice. Forgot to set the area QNH, which meant I ended up breaching prohibited airspace over a nuclear power stations. Thakfully I was working at that powerstation at the time and only got a reprimand. I should have planned a bigger margin. I picked a fight with and AFISO (aerodrome flight information service officer), and thankfully won.. He was a complete posterior hole that enjoyed his power over the radio, but in person he was a coward. Flew across an international FIR boundary but forgot to lodge the flightplan. (well.. I remembered to lodge it, but as I taxied out, I thought I had done it). Apparently read back a hold to cross an active runway, then proceeded to cross it... Thankfully noticed a C310 starting its roll and jumped on the brakes. Tower berated me on the radio and I made up some excuse that my feet slipped off the brakes and it lurched forward, so no call to visit ATC. However, I am dead certain my readback was to cross the active runway. At Moorabbin, on 17L (used for training), as a solo student, I was given clearnce to take off.. I saw an a/c on finals so declined the clearance due to aircraft on final. He may have been a way out, but as a student, I thought I would be cautious (there was no "don't delay" in the instruction). I guess ATC didn't like that because they made me wait until what seemed like all the traffic had left the circuit...
  10. G'Day, Glen - and welcome to the forums! I don't know too much about RAA regs, but sometimes an airport may put their own restirctions of the types of aircraft allowed to visit. This can be for many reasons. I checked the Canberra airport site and found the Light Recreational Aircraft/Light Commercial Aircraft conditions of use (https://www.canberraairport.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/AVI-LRA-LCA-application-CA-conditions-of-use-June-2020_PROOF-02.pdf) which does no differentiate RAA/GA in their definition of Light Recreational Aircraft. They also have a permit application (https://www.canberraairport.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/AVI-Light-Recreational-Aircraft-LRA-Annual-Permit-Application-Form-v1-1-July-19-ID-32225_FA-ID-54766-2.pdf), and although it doesn't further define what they mean, it references CASA as an operator.. There is a customer services number - probably best to give them a call.
  11. When people trend to be losing the logical side of the argument, they resort to mockery and other forms of baseless ridicule or irrelevance to try and affect the debate. Remember Trump in his initiak days? How many Journos did he call a "bad, bad person" without actually answering the questions of providing credible facts? He does it today. We all mock trump for this, but some people exhibit the same tendencies. As I mentioned, point us to the credible evidence that suggests otherwise - until then - I would suggest it is those who can't that are not willing to see reason or change their mind..
  12. A mate of mine, originally from Toowoomba, has one - G-ZION (google it - you will see photos of it and if you google G-INFO (CAA's aircraft database), you can check out all the details. It is a 180HP model, fixed undercarriage, 1972. I've been in it a couple of times and it is a good machine. EJB looks to be a retractable; G-ON is fixed gear from memory.. Apart from that they should be more or less the same with a slightly different useable load. While you're not going to need a g-suit, they are no slouch for the type of aircraft they are. They have a bigger cabin than the C172 and people thought they could just stuff the cabin full like they could the 172... big mistake. The numbers look OK to me, but I am sure a little googling will work it out for you - are there any STCs on it? Avweb had a good article on them: Cessna 177 Cardinal I would certainly look at a later model... Mate's aircraft is here: Cessna 177B Cardinal, G-ZION / 177-01690, Private :. This was before he owned it. As with any used aircraft (ir any used mechanical item), you are buying what the previous owners did and did not do in terms of mainternance, and in the case of aircraft, g-forces. On the first annual, the exhaust had to be replaced and a few other wearable items.. so far, as far as I know, nothing major (well, beyond a few thousand £).
  13. Agreed OME... it is getting heated... And it really just goes in circles. But since what was a light-hearted joke about those in Vic (Mexico) making it across any border by air since the re-lockdown has since morphed into [yet another] debate about the appropriateness of the lockdown. There is little to do with aviation so maybe mods should consider locking down this thread and transferring it to socialaustralia.com.au? I have noticed traffic there is really light lately... That said, I'll bite... The main arguments against the lockdown seem to be: It only affects the aged and those with co-morbid conditions. Not entirely true. There were young people with no identfied (after autopsy) co-morbid conditions.. these are reasonably rare, but tell that to the families of the victims. Of course, I agree we shouldn't put the world on hold for that alone. For the aged care facilities - they were in lock down but the infection still spread from carers; And being in an aged care facilitiy doesn't mean you're going to drop dead in a short time.. My stepfather was in one for about three years; my partner's grandmother was in one for about two.. There were many in these facilties that were there longer. Finally, co-morbid does not meen a condition that is life threatening nor life shortening. It simply means, " relating to or denoting a medical condition that co-occurs with another", or from wikipedia: " comorbidity is the presence of one or more additional conditions often co-occurring with a primary condition. " Bronchopneumonia is commonly cured - yes people die from it.. Many respiratory and other organ conditions may be chronic but not materially life shortening. I get the feeling to some people co-morbitiy means another condition that threatens or shortens life.. Also, wikipedia is not the deifnitive, but it states that co-morbitiy is not the primary condition.. Someone posted an April BBC article reporting the risk of COVID and the fact that they report a COVID death even if the co-morbid condition is the primary cause. It then went on to say that the primary cause is in the majority was COVID... And what it didn't say is that the numbers are adjusted up to 3 days later to cover late reports and corrections to the cause. Only a small amount of the population get it, and it is only fatal in a small percentage. Well, I would agree, especially in Australia, only a small percentage get COVID. But this will mainly be because Australia went comparatively hard and fast saving a situation like that which played out in the US or the UK. This should give you a view of the current numbers in the US. We can see almosy 1.5% of the populaton have contracted it so far, and that almost 3.3% of those have died. Compare that to Australia, where you have 0.08 percent of the population and the fatality rate is up to 1.24%. The US is more densly populated, but US cities in sq miles are as large as ours and over 60% of the Aussie population are reside in the state capital cities so there is ample desnity for the virus to spread in our popualtion centres.. especially since entry into the country is probably 99.9% at these cities. The point is the US had at best patchy controls, Australia was a lot better... The stats speak for themselves. And of course, Aussies knew the healing properties of dunny paper.. Of yeah, look at the graph on the Aussie chart.. from a very small number of cases, a very quick increase in the daily rate..This would indicate the exponential infection rate (a curve would be shown on cumulative numbers). This shows the rate at which it will spread ifg ledt in mild check... Note, the US hosptial system couldn't deal with the crisis.. that may be a good indicator as to why their fatality rate is almost three times ours... And their infection rate is what times ours? Thousands of people die per year from influenza, but we don't take these sorts of precautions: Yes, this is true. According to the WHO, up to 650,000 per year die from respiratry complications associated with the flu (so that is quite a lot more than those atrtrubuted directly to the flu, and this should atone for the co-morbitiy issue with COVD deaths). If you look at the Australia and the US charts above, you will see that globally we have exceed 692,000 deaths and this is only 8 months old.. Also, this doesn't include deaths from subsequent complications brought on by the disease. I think on all counts, it has already exceeded the death count with the flu... It won't be long until the flu has a bit to do to catchup. I looked up fatality rates for influenza and got a lot of sites that were convoluted, so couldn't be bothered to crystalise the numbers to get a comparison. But, note, there is no coordinated effort (other than a voluntary flu jab) to contain the flu; there is one for COVID. So numbers not quite like for like. The numbers for COVID-19 appear to bear a rather grim projection should some serious action not be taken. This is an overreaction that will wreck the economy. This is a prediction, and there is probably some evidence we can draw from the previous SARS epidemic and maybe even the Spanish Flu (incidentally which did not originate in Spain, but was the worst affected as they didn't implement the lockdown measures of the day). The UK is talking about a V-shaped recovery - i.e. quick to decline, but quick to recover. This article from a couple of weeks ago talks to it.. However, there is concern it won't be V shaped.. I agree.. it will be a shallower curve on the upside because people are tentative and jobs have been lost, companies will have closed, etc. People (in the UK) don't frequent pubs, cafes, etc at anywhere near the rate the did pre-COVID. This month, the UK government will foot 1/2 the bill of all in-restaurant/cafe/pub meals.. and so far no one I know has taken up the offer. People will spend less while the virus is perceived to the a threat. They will not go out as much, etc. The longer the threat, the slower will be a recovery. Also, the more people who die, the more of the economy you lose (except for funeral directors and cemetries/crematoriums). Yes, there is public borrowing that will have to be paid back. yes there are SMEs that will close their doors forever (mine is probably one of those). But at the other end of it, new SMEs will grow (hopefully a new one for me), the government issued debt is the cheapest you can get at the moment, and allowing the virus to persist will keep economic activity suppressed and require higher borrowing and more SME failures than there should be and recovery will take a lot longer. etc. The collateral damage (e.g. mental health) will be much higher than the lives it saves: This one has merit.. but as we don't know how many lives are being saved by the lockdown versus how much more collateral damage is happening, it is very hard to make a true judgement. The main concerns I hear of are mental health deteriorration leading to suicide, and the fact that there are much lower rates of cancer diagnosis meaning many cancers may go undetected that can be saved. This is a real issue where to be honest, a balance has to be found and the lack of numbers that can be causal make it difficult to assess. However, should COVD rates increase, even without a complete rip through the community, there will undoubtedly be a lot of mental anguish and possible suicides as a result. Also, the ability to treat other medical conditions will be severly affected because COVID wil ltake up so much medical resources.. so I am on the fence on this one in the absence of data Each state is doing their own thing: Yep - I get it.. that is the law of the country (and that of the UK, too). And I agree with it.. It is compeltely stuffed to have different, albeit similar approaches for the one country (or in the case of the UK and Europe, I would even say one land mass) as no virus really gives a toss about artifical borders put up by man. Also, it is whacky that I can't go to either side of a line on a map based solely on there being a line, despite all the factors being nearly identical across the line and there being no additional risk... It is nuts.. but that does not say the measures being taken shouldn't be being taken... Yep.. they should at least be coordinated and consistent. Also, if it were Australia wide, we have to accept that in areas there is a breakout (such as Melbourne and now Sydney looks like it has a cluster), then localised lockdowns under a Federal response would be appropriate, would it not? Duing lockdown, we should be able to go flying: If we have our own plane at our own or a local airstrip (say within a 5km radius) and we go flying ourselves or with someone in the immediate household, yes I agree. But as Turbs pointed out, there are too many rec activities that may or may not fall into the safe category, naming all those that are allowed or those that are not (and for certain activities the conditions under which they are or are not) is just not practical. And as we have seen, too many will try it on if they think they can. Even in the case of flying, say you are within 5k of Moorabbin.. and you want to rent a plane from RVAC? Probably shouldn't allow that because the risk of contact will be too high.. Now what about going to Redcliffe or some other country airport with a moderate amount of activity, or even low, but shared (e.g. rentals, syndicates, etc). You can see the line gets blurred and it is very difficult to enforce. Yes, the state government has allowed fishing (maintaining social distancing) and some other things.. can't recall.. Maybe Dan likes fishing.. or maybe they have looked at what the majority of people do. I understand the frustration of being needlessly grounded.. I know folks outside of Melbourne can probably go flying... but this was a real issue day 1 or the original lockdown. Multiculturism is increasing the spread because they won't comply: If this is the case, it still doesn't stop the requirement for the lockdown and it is an error to conflate the two. Anyway, I understand there are those of different religious and cultural backgrounds have been breaching lockdown. However, there are also a lot of caucasion Aussies doing it, too. Bunnings' Karen, the couple who drove to Orbost or wherever and were infected; and the infamous Wodonga Burger Run... - Seriously? From the above, I think a natural human trait is not to be kept isolated and try it on... BTW, if you are taking your news from Sky or other "right wing" press, maybe you want to watch in full about the Melbourne based South Sudanese treatment by the such press here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZCfpvP1TSg:367 Other miscellaneous topics: The three main ones are.. "for the mathematically illiterate..", "... well said"., and something like they'll never listen and won't change their mind. Well. I think the above prose (of which I have spent too much time on to be honest) shows that at least I listen to the arguments - both sides! My mind hasn't been changed because I like to back up opinion (or more accurately, intuition) with facts in these cases. There is no one absolute right way to handle this... There isn't really a precedent in Australia nor most of the developed world in handling this in modern times. So, it has to be a balancing act - and a difficult one at that. However, from all the data the countries who are taking the harder line are medically and economically recovering faster than those who aren't. As for the "mathematically illiterate", let me know which statistical technique you would like. Hist Sims will be difficult, We could use tobit or Beta -logit probability methods;' monte-carlo simulations (path or non-path dependent), even Bayes Theorem if you like... probably path dependent monte carlo or Bayes is the most applicable. But the simple ratios and maths are already illuminating. Now, I would never attempt these moreadvanced techniques with medical data as I have no idea of the data issues/smoothing techniques, bias, etc. But that is what the professional modellers do and while I can guarantee they won't get it 100% right, so far the comaprison between countries points to them getting it largely right (which any statistical method is about, which is why VCE maths for a while changed from pure and applied to change and approximation). And we certainly don't rely on questionable sources of statistical analysis against government (or in some of the above, wikipedia - which is not so reputable but at least can be corrected). Yes, we could isolate oldies (of which a few of us are on here, which would mean no flying) and those with known co-morbid conditions. This may slow the fatality rate, but it ignores that even that isolation requires some form of interaction, that the virus will still continue to spread, herd immunity is not provem, there will be spillover into quarantine, people will shun Aus because they don't want to get it because it will still be in the community with Aus, we won't go out as much or do the discretionary things as much because we don't want to tempt fate, etc. Sorry fellas, at this stage, you haven't convinced me it is a good idea not to go for lockdowns and eradication or live with hard lockdowns for clusters as they form.. yet.. Of course, an anti-viral inhibitor or decent viral vaccination may change that... Give us good evidence and you will at least change my mind. Of course, with reputable data to show the medical and economic effects won't be worse inthe long run will change my mind, too.
  14. Agree 110%.. My point though, was if one is going ot buy - then buy locally and better still from clearprop as it helps keep the forum going
  15. Are these not just as good? CO Detector. Should be less than the total price per unit fom the US (inc. postage).
  16. Great shots, Mr. Jessup. I try not to read the location before I look at the shots and thought it was Lakes Entrance... Hasn't changed much from the air. All very green given it was burned out not too long ago. The south east coast and around up tpo Bermagui (as far as I have been in a light aircraft frrom Moorabbin along that route) is almost gods country...
  17. Yes he has... because he doesn't want it to get to a state where the hospitals and health care facilities can't cope.. and if you live outside Victoria, guess what.. .neither will you as they will lilekly ship Covid patients to other states' facilities that can take up the slack. It is, after all, one country, isn't it? The state's health system is sized based on expected demand plus a decent amount of fat for contingencies, etc. There is not pot at tghe end of the rainbow that has a never ending supply of staff, hospitals or the equipment that goes into it. I agree it is draconian.. .I agree I would never thought I would live to see the day a massive curfew in any city in Australia would be subject to it. Unfortunately, a small minority of people decided to not comply with the looser restrictions that would in all probability have not required this to occur... You have seen from the stats how a small number of community transmissions can quickly balloon out. We can see stats from around the world that as the cases mount and the health facilities come under strain, the rate of fatalities per infections escalate (as the stats state, Aus, 1.07%, US, north of 3.5% - more than three times ours because it blew out the health system). If you want to know how people will look back and judge this.. Let's look at the UK, which went slow and has one of the worst fatality rates per 100k population: Since mid-April, his popularity rating has plummeted. The press and every day people, who were very supportive of him initially are highly critical saying he didn't go fast and hard enough to start with (admittedly, he was acting on the advice of the CMO). Further lockdown easing was delayed on Friday by two weeks and with it came a stern warning that increases in infections will result in tighter restrictions.. After this week, where we had some great weather and people flocked to the beaches and largely ignored social distaincing, two weeke hence should start showing whether or not this is a hoax.
  18. I think it should be allowed to be updated as a historical record. As pilots we should be verifying the recency af any planning data we use, correct?
  19. It seems to be on their site... and they are not asking any money. Also it is a 2003 edition...
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