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lies, damned lies, and statistics


BlurE

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Ok so here's some fun.

 

The centerfold of the recent "clear prop clear mind" contain some interesting statistics.

 

Looking at 2015 for a whole year.

 

- Total hours flown 211431.9

 

- members 9117

 

- average hours per member 23.19

 

So far so good.

 

- Average age of pilot 60

 

- Average number of hours flying experience 1780.

 

Now to accumulate the average number of hours (1780) at the average rate (23.19) would take 77 years. But the average age is only 60....

 

lies, damned lies, and statistics!

 

 

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Ok so here's some fun.The centerfold of the recent "clear prop clear mind" contain some interesting statistics.

 

Looking at 2015 for a whole year.

 

- Total hours flown 211431.9

 

- members 9117

 

- average hours per member 23.19

 

So far so good.

 

- Average age of pilot 60

 

- Average number of hours flying experience 1780.

 

Now to accumulate the average number of hours (1780) at the average rate (23.19) would take 77 years. But the average age is only 60....

 

lies, damned lies, and statistics!

That's average hrs per member for 2015.........vs average total hrs per member since all of them began flying........so if the figures are right, all it means is that, on average, the members flew less per member in 2015 than they did in former years.

 

Makes sense to me, although i'd say they are fairly meaningless figures in that form...readily skewed by all manner of factors.

 

Numbers are all about context....which is why we tend not to give them to Head Office.

 

If it takes 3 women 9 months to make 4 babies, how many months will it take 8 women to make 11 babies???? HO would work out an answer...and demand that production be adjusted accordingly.....)

 

 

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My question is how many students are joining monthly?

 

And how many pilot certs are issued monthly? Not from GA.

 

Be interesting also how many real dual "training hours" are flown from every school in Aus on a monthly basis. NO BFR's

 

Would give us the health of RAA sport training aviation. Which I suspect is not good except from a few schools.

 

Its not hard to compile and would be useful for GA comparisons and CASA arguments to the membership.

 

Or it could be very scary

 

 

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Ok so here's some fun.The centerfold of the recent "clear prop clear mind" contain some interesting statistics.

 

[snip]

 

- Average age of pilot 60

 

- Average number of hours flying experience 1780.

 

Now to accumulate the average number of hours (1780) at the average rate (23.19) would take 77 years. But the average age is only 60....

 

lies, damned lies, and statistics!

The heading above those figures is "Information about Pilots Involved in Fatal Accidents"

 

The fatalities (on average) had 8 years membership, 1,780 hours flying time and 60 years old. That tells me (on average) it is not low time, recently qualified, young blokes that are cashing in their chips. As the hours are above average - perhaps there was one or two high hour pilots - eg done 10,000 flying for the RAAF or airlines before AUF/RAA?

 

 

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Yep you can have a lot of fun with statistics. The ones I believe are how in your 60's you have:

 

1 in 1000 of dying in your plane.

 

2 in 1000 from succumbing to a disease caused by being overweight.

 

4 in 1000 from succumbing to a disease from being inactive

 

10 in 1000 from all causes

 

Now I'm in my 70's and the statistics are worse, except for the dying in your plane.

 

 

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Yep you can have a lot of fun with statistics. The ones I believe are how in your 60's you have:1 in 1000 of dying in your plane.

2 in 1000 from succumbing to a disease caused by being overweight.

 

4 in 1000 from succumbing to a disease from being inactive

 

10 in 1000 from all causes

 

Now I'm in my 70's and the statistics are worse, except for the dying in your plane.

Maybe try living on hamburgers and sleeping in your plane???

 

 

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How would that help, iBob?Actually I did invest in a tent and airbed, about $30 in all. So if I get kicked out of the house i will have somewhere to go.

I was being facetious while messing with the numbers: it'd even up your chances of dying in your plane.

 

 

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The heading above those figures is "Information about Pilots Involved in Fatal Accidents"The fatalities (on average) had 8 years membership, 1,780 hours flying time and 60 years old. That tells me (on average) it is not low time, recently qualified, young blokes that are cashing in their chips. As the hours are above average - perhaps there was one or two high hour pilots - eg done 10,000 flying for the RAAF or airlines before AUF/RAA?

Well I have died 4 times then. Using 8 years / death / membership / flying ultralights . Damm did not know it.

 

 

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Very liberating huh? Here you are, well past your use-by date and still having fun.

 

And nothing much to lose if you stuff it up.

 

Well I like the feeling of freedom anyway. This mate of mine bought a motorbike when he turned 70. I agree.

 

 

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The saddest part of the statistics from the RAAus AGM this year for me was the 'news' that the average age of RAAus pilots is down to my age ... or I've crept up to it whichever makes me sadder (pass the gin dear I need solace)

 

And given I am not yet 50 and only have 23 years as an AUF pilot behind me all you old buggers out there are being averaged out by young whipper snappers who were likely born after the Thrusters and Drifters ceased being used in most training schools ... what hope the future 042_hide.gif.f5e8fb1d85d95ffa63d9b5a325bf422e.gif

 

 

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There was a big report about heart attack risk. It can be shown that insufficient sex is more dangerous than flying.

 

I hereby call on the govt to reassign all CASA personnel to work at making sure that all we pilots are getting enough sex.

 

 

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There was a big report about heart attack risk. It can be shown that insufficient sex is more dangerous than flying.I hereby call on the govt to reassign all CASA personnel to work at making sure that all we pilots are getting enough sex.

I'd be up for that!

 

 

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Thanks for the link, IB. Good to hear her again. Grace Slick had one of the most stirring voices of that era.

Thank you, BT & OK....yep, fair takes you back, eh?

 

 

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Thank you, BT & OK....yep, fair takes you back, eh?

My kid and JJJ keep me reasonably up to date. After culling the Rap Crap I get to hear some good recent music, but little of it moves me like the old stuff.

 

Each generation has it's own music, but mine was particularly lucky. So often over the years I have been chuffed to hear another bunch of kids "discovering" some of the great tracks of the 60s and 70s.

 

 

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Each generation has it's own music, but mine was particularly lucky. So often over the years I have been chuffed to hear another bunch of kids "discovering" some of the great tracks of the 60s and 70s.

 

I really do think it was a golden era: it was the emergence and exploration of whole new types of music. What amazes me now is how young some of the musicians were, considering the mark they left.

 

I mean relatively young, considering so much was self-taught, and there was no road map for the stuff..........)

 

 

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