Bass Strait plane missing 02/08/25

[BurnieM]

Early articles after release mention an NG5 empty weight of 302kg but later googled POH have 335 to 365kg.

 

Empty weight NG5 - 340?kg

Adult 1 - 85kg

Adult 2 - 75kg

120 litres fuel - 86kg

left wing luggage - 15kg

right wing luggage - 15kg

dog (cocker spaniel as I do not see a labrador fitting behind the seat in a NG5) - 15kg

Total = 631kg

 

While this would be illegal I am guessing the plane could probably handle it but all it would take is an extra bag behind the seats and you have a w&b problem.

 

[Love to fly]

4 minutes ago, FlyBoy1960 said:

 

The engine is a 912 ULS (100 HP) and it has a mechanical fuel pump. 

Engine verified by RA-Aus incident report on their website. 

It would be very heavy with 2 people, luggage, a 20 kg dog and probably full fuel with just 100 hp. (and no flaps if the electrics went out)

Thanks for the correction. I was basing this on comments made elsewhere on the Web. I should kniw better 🤷‍♀️

[red750]

Three nulti-posts deleted. 

[Love to fly]

4 minutes ago, red750 said:

Three nulti-posts deleted. 

Thank you.  Not sure what happened. Posted. Put phone down. Picked it up and duplicates. 🤷‍♀️ And there's another one now 🤦

Edited Tuesday at 11:31 PM by Love to fly

[onetrack]

52 minutes ago, Love to fly said:

Hmm what about an electrical failure. I’m told no manual fuel pump, just the electric one. Fuel pump is electric,  No transponder, radio, fuel could be an issue methinks. 

The Bristell was first registered in November 2023. It would essentially be a brand new aircraft, possibly less than 150 hrs flying time.

With a pretty expensive factory-built European aircraft, do you really think that a total electrical failure is a possibility at just over 18 mths old? I see that as a very, very low possibility.

Whatever happened, happened fast, so if it was a major electrical failure, that would not create the scenario of a rapid crash with the piloting experience this bloke possessed.

 

By all reports, he was a quiet and unassuming legend, as far as aviation knowledge went.

He kept such a low profile, I cannot find any photos/information of the aircraft doing any flying, nor any records of when/where it was advertised, or sold to him.

Even the clubs produce no records of him, which I find quite amazing for a man in his position, reported to be "highly active" in aero club activity.

[Thruster88]

1 hour ago, Love to fly said:

Hmm what about an electrical failure. I’m told no manual fuel pump, just the electric one. Fuel pump is electric,  No transponder, radio, fuel could be an issue methinks. 

Engine is reported in RAAus accidents and incidents as a 912uls so would have engine driven mechanical pump.

[spacesailor]

Will a 912uls run without electrical power , an 18  month old battery could be the problem ! 

if, left flat for any time  .

spacesailor

 

[440032]

Airservices ADS-B coverage maps (5 years old) show no coverage below 5000 feet in TAS.

Don't know the status of TASWAM these days.

Many years ago, TASWAM had been operationally live for about a year before Melbourne ATC's using it found out that the simulator crew never heard of it, didn't have it, and couldn't replicate it (easily)!

That was a rather hilarious conversation at the time, coz I was in on it:

Can the simulator do TASWAM?

TAS what?

TASWAM.

What WAM?

TASWAM.

What What?

[440032]

3 hours ago, pmccarthy said:

Sky News had an "aviation expert" Byron Bailey. He said three things and, as generalisations, they were all wrong. 

 

OMG, what an absolute FLOG "expert" - he's living 40 years in the past!

("I'm just really glad to be on TV again!")

Someone get me a bucket, QUICK.

[facthunter]

I've met Mike a few times when he worked for CASA. Quiet, Unassuming and Capable. I doubt anybody would say a bad word about him.  Nev

[FlyBoy1960]

2 hours ago, spacesailor said:

Will a 912uls run without electrical power , an 18  month old battery could be the problem ! 

if, left flat for any time  .

spacesailor

 

Yes it will run after starting no problems

[FlyBoy1960]

3 hours ago, Love to fly said:

Thanks for the correction. I was basing this on comments made elsewhere on the Web. I should kniw better 🤷‍♀️

Someone said it was a 914 which has no mechanical fuel pump only electric but when the information came up on the RA-Aus website it said it was a 912 ULS  which I am assuming is correct

[pmccarthy]

37 minutes ago, facthunter said:

I've met Mike a few times when he worked for CASA. Quiet, Unassuming and Capable. I doubt anybody would say a bad word about him.  Nev

Mike who?

[facthunter]

   Sorry Greg Vaughan, the Pilot.   Nev

[onetrack]

The search is winding down and the Tasmanian Police will soon turn the case into a "missing persons" crime case. 

 

The fact that not a single piece of wreckage or flotsam has been sighted seems to indicate the aircraft entered the water in a flat spin, typical of the "unrecoverable" Bristell spin.

I believe this would lead to the aircraft tending to stay in one piece, as compared to a more destructive high angle approach to the water. 

No matter what the approach angle, the crash would disable the occupants, by losing unconsciousness at the very least, and I doubt whether they could recover or escape before they drowned

 

A witness has verified the dog was not being nursed in the passengers lap, so it must have been secured behind the seats - thus making the "dog interference with controls" scenario much less likely.

All that remains for crash reasons, is medical incapacitation, or sudden and catastrophic in-flight breakup, possibly at relatively low level, stopping the chance of any Mayday.

 

Search for missing light plane enters sixth day - Tasmania Police

WWW.POLICE.TAS.GOV.AU

---

The search for a missing light plane and the two people on board is resuming for a sixth day, with a Tasmania Police helicopter crew today conducting searches off the north coast of Tasmania. Pol Air has been...

 

[turboplanner]

19 minutes ago, onetrack said:

The search is winding down and the Tasmanian Police will soon turn the case into a "missing persons" crime case. 

 

The fact that not a single piece of wreckage or flotsam has been sighted seems to indicate the aircraft entered the water in a flat spin, typical of the "unrecoverable" Bristell spin.

I believe this would lead to the aircraft tending to stay in one piece, as compared to a more destructive high angle approach to the water. 

No matter what the approach angle, the crash would disable the occupants, by losing unconsciousness at the very least, and I doubt whether they could recover or escape before they drowned

 

A witness has verified the dog was not being nursed in the passengers lap, so it must have been secured behind the seats - thus making the "dog interference with controls" scenario much less likely.

All that remains for crash reasons, is medical incapacitation, or sudden and catastrophic in-flight breakup, possibly at relatively low level, stopping the chance of any Mayday.

 

Search for missing light plane enters sixth day - Tasmania Police

WWW.POLICE.TAS.GOV.AU

---

The search for a missing light plane and the two people on board is resuming for a sixth day, with a Tasmania Police helicopter crew today conducting searches off the north coast of Tasmania. Pol Air has been...

 

Plus going down in the bush from Georgetown or possibly Gippsland.

The lack of electronic communication given the pilot's reputation and expected skill level could mean an electrrical or comms failure., and as fantastic as this aircraft looks, it still had a Rotax standard engine, assembly etc and LSA equipment so there's still the chance of an unexpected engine-out, ditching without a break up and quick sinking.

 

The RA mattress men are the only two recovered alive from a Bass Strait forced landing/crash.

[onetrack]

3 hours ago, turboplanner said:

Plus going down in the bush from Georgetown or possibly Gippsland.

One would think, a fully loaded European plastic fantastic, carrying 100-120 litres of fuel, would catch fire, if it crashed on island or mainland terrain, would you not?

I STR the last Bristell that went down in a flat spin, at Redesdale in Sept 2024, burnt to a crisp.

 

Plus, over land, there are a lot more eyeballs to view a falling aircraft. Over a 250km wide stretch of open ocean, not enough eyeballs there, to see it come down.

[FlyBoy1960]

14 hours ago, onetrack said:

The fact that not a single piece of wreckage or flotsam has been sighted seems to indicate the aircraft entered the water in a flat spin, typical of the "unrecoverable" Bristell spin.

I believe this would lead to the aircraft tending to stay in one piece, as compared to a more destructive high angle approach to the water

Chat GPT Created...

1. Normal (Controlled) Water Impact (e.g., Glide or Ditching)

• Description: A planned or semi-controlled water landing, typically under power loss or emergency descent, where the pilot aligns with the water surface, flares, and touches down relatively level and flat.

• Airframe Damage:

  • Usually moderate if performed correctly.

  • Wings may shear off upon impact with water.

  • Fuselage may remain largely intact, especially if speed is low.

• Survivability:

  • Highest among the three.

  • Bristell has a bubble canopy, and if not fractured, occupants may need to egress quickly before the aircraft sinks.

  • Injury risk comes from deceleration forces or impact with cockpit elements, but survival is likely if seatbelts and shoulder harnesses are used.

• Factors Affecting Outcome:

  • Speed at impact.

  • Sea state (calm vs. waves).

  • Pilot skill and reaction time.

---

2. Near-Vertical Water Impact (e.g., Nose-Down Dive)

• Description: High angle descent, often uncontrolled, where the aircraft hits the water nose-first, typically at high speed.

• Airframe Damage:

  • Catastrophic. The fuselage usually compresses or disintegrates.

  • Wings and empennage may break off violently.

  • Engine may be driven into the cockpit area.

• Survivability:

  • Very low.

  • Deceleration forces are likely well beyond human tolerance (~50+ Gs).

  • Death is usually instantaneous from blunt trauma or structural collapse.

• Example Analogy: Like diving off a building headfirst into concrete — water is not compressible at high speed.

---

3. Flat Spin into Water

• Description: The aircraft descends while spinning on a near-horizontal axis, often stalled, with nose slightly down. Airspeed is usually lower than a dive but with significant rotation.

• Airframe Damage:

  • Severe, but less than vertical impact.

  • Asymmetrical forces may cause structural breakup, especially at wing roots or tail.

  • Fuselage may strike the water at an angle, breaking open.

• Survivability:

  • Low to moderate, depending on:

    • Rate of descent at impact.

    • Whether spin is arrested partially before impact.

  • Better than a nose-down crash, but worse than a controlled ditching.

  • Risk of incapacitation from disorientation or impact forces.

• Important Note: Spin impacts often cause uneven damage, which could trap one or both occupants.

---

 

Additional Considerations:

• The Bristell LSA is a composite aircraft, meaning it absorbs impact differently from aluminum planes. It can shatter on high-G impacts rather than crumpling.

• Water entry may look “soft,” but the difference in speed (e.g., 60 kt vs. 120 kt) radically changes the outcome.

• Use of ballistic parachutes (if fitted) on the Bristell can drastically improve outcomes in both spin and power-loss scenarios, but they are not always deployed in time or under ideal conditions.

 

Love Chat GPT.

[SGM]

ABC news update: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-08/missing-plane-friends-alerted-lack-of-radio-call-bass-strait/105619942

Based on the track of the AMSA plane, it looks like the flight was filed to fly direct from Georgetown to Leongatha.   I am genuinely curious as to why the pilot chose not to follow the ERSA Special Procedures for crossing Bass Strait (ie via either Flinders or King Islands).  It would have only taken about 30 minutes (and 10 litres) more, and is still shorter than the planned second leg to Hillston.
 

[BurnieM]

Best guess seems to be that the aircraft went down within minutes of taking off.

Both no departure call and no transponder signal appears to make this likely.

A w&b issue seems possible.