Bass Strait plane missing 02/08/25

[BurnieM]

Early articles after release mention an NG5 empty weight of 302kg but later googled POH have 335 to 365kg.

 

Empty weight NG5 - 340?kg

Adult 1 - 85kg

Adult 2 - 75kg

120 litres fuel - 86kg

left wing luggage - 15kg

right wing luggage - 15kg

dog (cocker spaniel as I do not see a labrador fitting behind the seat in a NG5) - 15kg

Total = 631kg

 

While this would be illegal I am guessing the plane could probably handle it but all it would take is an extra bag behind the seats and you have a w&b problem.

 

[Love to fly]

4 minutes ago, FlyBoy1960 said:

 

The engine is a 912 ULS (100 HP) and it has a mechanical fuel pump. 

Engine verified by RA-Aus incident report on their website. 

It would be very heavy with 2 people, luggage, a 20 kg dog and probably full fuel with just 100 hp. (and no flaps if the electrics went out)

Thanks for the correction. I was basing this on comments made elsewhere on the Web. I should kniw better 🤷‍♀️

[red750]

Three nulti-posts deleted. 

[Love to fly]

4 minutes ago, red750 said:

Three nulti-posts deleted. 

Thank you.  Not sure what happened. Posted. Put phone down. Picked it up and duplicates. 🤷‍♀️ And there's another one now 🤦

Edited August 5 by Love to fly

[onetrack]

52 minutes ago, Love to fly said:

Hmm what about an electrical failure. I’m told no manual fuel pump, just the electric one. Fuel pump is electric,  No transponder, radio, fuel could be an issue methinks. 

The Bristell was first registered in November 2023. It would essentially be a brand new aircraft, possibly less than 150 hrs flying time.

With a pretty expensive factory-built European aircraft, do you really think that a total electrical failure is a possibility at just over 18 mths old? I see that as a very, very low possibility.

Whatever happened, happened fast, so if it was a major electrical failure, that would not create the scenario of a rapid crash with the piloting experience this bloke possessed.

 

By all reports, he was a quiet and unassuming legend, as far as aviation knowledge went.

He kept such a low profile, I cannot find any photos/information of the aircraft doing any flying, nor any records of when/where it was advertised, or sold to him.

Even the clubs produce no records of him, which I find quite amazing for a man in his position, reported to be "highly active" in aero club activity.

[Thruster88]

1 hour ago, Love to fly said:

Hmm what about an electrical failure. I’m told no manual fuel pump, just the electric one. Fuel pump is electric,  No transponder, radio, fuel could be an issue methinks. 

Engine is reported in RAAus accidents and incidents as a 912uls so would have engine driven mechanical pump.

[spacesailor]

Will a 912uls run without electrical power , an 18  month old battery could be the problem ! 

if, left flat for any time  .

spacesailor

 

[440032]

Airservices ADS-B coverage maps (5 years old) show no coverage below 5000 feet in TAS.

Don't know the status of TASWAM these days.

Many years ago, TASWAM had been operationally live for about a year before Melbourne ATC's using it found out that the simulator crew never heard of it, didn't have it, and couldn't replicate it (easily)!

That was a rather hilarious conversation at the time, coz I was in on it:

Can the simulator do TASWAM?

TAS what?

TASWAM.

What WAM?

TASWAM.

What What?

[440032]

3 hours ago, pmccarthy said:

Sky News had an "aviation expert" Byron Bailey. He said three things and, as generalisations, they were all wrong. 

 

OMG, what an absolute FLOG "expert" - he's living 40 years in the past!

("I'm just really glad to be on TV again!")

Someone get me a bucket, QUICK.

[facthunter]

I've met Mike a few times when he worked for CASA. Quiet, Unassuming and Capable. I doubt anybody would say a bad word about him.  Nev

[FlyBoy1960]

2 hours ago, spacesailor said:

Will a 912uls run without electrical power , an 18  month old battery could be the problem ! 

if, left flat for any time  .

spacesailor

 

Yes it will run after starting no problems

[FlyBoy1960]

3 hours ago, Love to fly said:

Thanks for the correction. I was basing this on comments made elsewhere on the Web. I should kniw better 🤷‍♀️

Someone said it was a 914 which has no mechanical fuel pump only electric but when the information came up on the RA-Aus website it said it was a 912 ULS  which I am assuming is correct

[pmccarthy]

37 minutes ago, facthunter said:

I've met Mike a few times when he worked for CASA. Quiet, Unassuming and Capable. I doubt anybody would say a bad word about him.  Nev

Mike who?

[facthunter]

   Sorry Greg Vaughan, the Pilot.   Nev

[onetrack]

The search is winding down and the Tasmanian Police will soon turn the case into a "missing persons" crime case. 

 

The fact that not a single piece of wreckage or flotsam has been sighted seems to indicate the aircraft entered the water in a flat spin, typical of the "unrecoverable" Bristell spin.

I believe this would lead to the aircraft tending to stay in one piece, as compared to a more destructive high angle approach to the water. 

No matter what the approach angle, the crash would disable the occupants, by losing unconsciousness at the very least, and I doubt whether they could recover or escape before they drowned

 

A witness has verified the dog was not being nursed in the passengers lap, so it must have been secured behind the seats - thus making the "dog interference with controls" scenario much less likely.

All that remains for crash reasons, is medical incapacitation, or sudden and catastrophic in-flight breakup, possibly at relatively low level, stopping the chance of any Mayday.

 

Search for missing light plane enters sixth day - Tasmania Police

WWW.POLICE.TAS.GOV.AU

---

The search for a missing light plane and the two people on board is resuming for a sixth day, with a Tasmania Police helicopter crew today conducting searches off the north coast of Tasmania. Pol Air has been...

 

[turboplanner]

19 minutes ago, onetrack said:

The search is winding down and the Tasmanian Police will soon turn the case into a "missing persons" crime case. 

 

The fact that not a single piece of wreckage or flotsam has been sighted seems to indicate the aircraft entered the water in a flat spin, typical of the "unrecoverable" Bristell spin.

I believe this would lead to the aircraft tending to stay in one piece, as compared to a more destructive high angle approach to the water. 

No matter what the approach angle, the crash would disable the occupants, by losing unconsciousness at the very least, and I doubt whether they could recover or escape before they drowned

 

A witness has verified the dog was not being nursed in the passengers lap, so it must have been secured behind the seats - thus making the "dog interference with controls" scenario much less likely.

All that remains for crash reasons, is medical incapacitation, or sudden and catastrophic in-flight breakup, possibly at relatively low level, stopping the chance of any Mayday.

 

Search for missing light plane enters sixth day - Tasmania Police

WWW.POLICE.TAS.GOV.AU

---

The search for a missing light plane and the two people on board is resuming for a sixth day, with a Tasmania Police helicopter crew today conducting searches off the north coast of Tasmania. Pol Air has been...

 

Plus going down in the bush from Georgetown or possibly Gippsland.

The lack of electronic communication given the pilot's reputation and expected skill level could mean an electrrical or comms failure., and as fantastic as this aircraft looks, it still had a Rotax standard engine, assembly etc and LSA equipment so there's still the chance of an unexpected engine-out, ditching without a break up and quick sinking.

 

The RA mattress men are the only two recovered alive from a Bass Strait forced landing/crash.

[onetrack]

3 hours ago, turboplanner said:

Plus going down in the bush from Georgetown or possibly Gippsland.

One would think, a fully loaded European plastic fantastic, carrying 100-120 litres of fuel, would catch fire, if it crashed on island or mainland terrain, would you not?

I STR the last Bristell that went down in a flat spin, at Redesdale in Sept 2024, burnt to a crisp.

 

Plus, over land, there are a lot more eyeballs to view a falling aircraft. Over a 250km wide stretch of open ocean, not enough eyeballs there, to see it come down.

[SGM]

ABC news update: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-08/missing-plane-friends-alerted-lack-of-radio-call-bass-strait/105619942

Based on the track of the AMSA plane, it looks like the flight was filed to fly direct from Georgetown to Leongatha.   I am genuinely curious as to why the pilot chose not to follow the ERSA Special Procedures for crossing Bass Strait (ie via either Flinders or King Islands).  It would have only taken about 30 minutes (and 10 litres) more, and is still shorter than the planned second leg to Hillston.
 

[BurnieM]

Best guess seems to be that the aircraft went down within minutes of taking off.

Both no departure call and no transponder signal appears to make this likely.

A w&b issue seems possible.

 

[Thruster88]

1 hour ago, BurnieM said:

Best guess seems to be that the aircraft went down within minutes of taking off.

Both no departure call and no transponder signal appears to make this likely.

A w&b issue seems possible.

 

The transponder had become visible before reaching the coast to the north or west on previous flights. Locals report no calls on the ctaf. It is like the avionics switch was off.

 

 

[onetrack]

What highly experienced pilot takes off without a comms check, and ensures he has working communication?

This whole episode gets stranger by the day.

Their aviation friends were so concerned about the lack of a departure call, they were initiating a search within half an hour of departure.

Airservices Australia are not looking too good here, too lazy to even look up if there had been a call, when their friends inquired. Early search action might have had success.

[Love to fly]

10 minutes ago, onetrack said:

What highly experienced pilot takes off without a comms check, and ensures he has working communication?

This whole episode gets stranger by the day.

Their aviation friends were so concerned about the lack of a departure call, they were initiating a search within half an hour of departure.

Airservices Australia are not looking too good here, too lazy to even look up if there had been a call, when their friends inquired. Early search action might have had success.

Genuine question. I routinely take off from airports where there is no one else flying, and you can't reach CTR till 4,500'. How do you suggest I do a comms check? 

[BurnieM]

15 minutes ago, onetrack said:

What highly experienced pilot takes off without a comms check, and ensures he has working communication?

This whole episode gets stranger by the day.

Their aviation friends were so concerned about the lack of a departure call, they were initiating a search within half an hour of departure.

Airservices Australia are not looking too good here, too lazy to even look up if there had been a call, when their friends inquired. Early search action might have had success.

Minimal staff on a Saturday and a member of the public asks if you heard an aircraft without knowledge of an actual incident. This is probably standard procedure and unlikely to change.

 

To review that tapes would probably require calling someone in with higher access so even if they escalated it probably 2 hours plus before they started reviewing the calls.

 

[FlyBoy1960]

A lot of CTAF locations will have a beep back  after you finish your transmission. This way you know that your radio is working

Edited August 8 by FlyBoy1960

[Love to fly]

2 minutes ago, FlyBoy1960 said:

A lot of CTAF locations will have a beep back  after you finish your transmission. This way you know that your radio is working

Sure. But a lot if ALA's don't.