Flying during Lockdown

[BirdDog]

I hope you are right Skip.  Saldy yesterday more people died Vaxed than unvaxed.  Let's hope that is not a trend!

[Garfly]

9 minutes ago, BirdDog said:

I hope you are right Skip.  Saldy yesterday more people died Vaxed than unvaxed.  Let's hope that is not a trend!

Clarification and references please BD.

(I'd love to prove our Aro wrong regarding pilots and critical thinking.   ;- )

[turboplanner]

16 minutes ago, BirdDog said:

Well, All I can say, from someone who experienced this last year when we were locked down....

 

Never again will I allow myself to go for months without getting in the cockpit to remain recent and proficient.  Last year when that happened, it could have ended very differently.  I won't go into details, only to say, CASA have recent and proficient policies for a reason.

I will probably get flogged by some of you for this, but myself and my organisation are continuing to work (we deliver training to government and other essential services) and I can tell you, me driving to the AD to go for a fly, is the least of your concerns! LOL! 

You do you... I will do me.  🙂  Enjoy!

Are you in lockdown where you are?

Half the people posting their theories here aren't even in lockdown let alone knowing what the rules are for their lockdown.

The en result of a person breaching lockdown is that they put themselves in a position to spread infection and possibly cause permanent injuries or death.

As far as recency goes no PIC who is not current should be going flying by him/herself full stop. An assessment by an Instructor is a tiny proce to pay; some people may need an hour's assessment plus another hour of practice, others need four or five supervised and solo hours before coming up to their former standard. If you miss out on three months flying that's three months costs you've saved, so it's not as if it's an issue of cost to train up to standard.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[aro]

28 minutes ago, BirdDog said:

Saldy yesterday more people died Vaxed than unvaxed.

That's what happens when you vaccinate the most at risk people first. The vaccines are not a guarantee, they just make it far less likely you will die.

 

Last year Vic peaked at 700 cases/day. Deaths were averaging about 20/day. NSW now has far more cases, with a sustained rate of over 1400 cases/day yet the number of deaths is far lower. That is the effect of vaccinations, particularly in the vulnerable populations (elderly etc.)

[facthunter]

When all are vaxed everyone who dies will be vaxed .The opposite is happening in Vic Yesterday all serious cases were not vaxed and one was single shot only. It depends on  what you die of.. it is certainly reducing hospitalisations from what it would be  otherwise. Denmark is opening up WITH 90-100% Vaccinated.THAT sounds like a good plan.

   NSW's actions are reckless and risky and probably a political stunt to tie in with an election date. There's no doubt their supply has been enhanced in the RACE to force the other states into a situation THEY aren't satisfied with. Gladys (Now NOT appearing before you) is still the GOLD standard apparently so what's happening in NSW must be really good .More can attend funerals and PICNICS are the go. Nev

[Garfly]

47 minutes ago, BirdDog said:

I hope you are right Skip.  Saldy yesterday more people died Vaxed than unvaxed.  Let's hope that is not a trend!

 

It's so easy for Factoids to be twisted so that less critical thinkers nod their heads and shake their fists ... preferably at someone or something convenient.

As Clive Palmer and Craig Kelly know so well, mass rage should never be wasted, especially now, when there's so much competition for the far-right voters' hearts and minds.

 

That assertion above (more people died Vaxed than unvaxed) was actually true in the UK even back in June/July, and it was, statistically, to be expected since vaccination rates there were already very high:

 

"Most COVID deaths in England now are in the vaccinated – here’s why that shouldn’t alarm you

 

 

More vaccinated people are dying of COVID than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died of the delta variant within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine. At first glance, this may seem alarming, but it is exactly as would be expected.

Here’s a simple thought experiment: imagine everyone is now fully vaccinated with COVID vaccines – which are excellent but can’t save all lives. Some people who get infected with COVID will still die. All of these people will be fully vaccinated – 100%. That doesn’t mean vaccines aren’t effective at reducing death."

 

Source:

 

https://theconversation.com/most-covid-deaths-in-england-now-are-in-the-vaccinated-heres-why-that-shouldnt-alarm-you-163671

 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2021 by Garfly

[Thruster88]

Bit of a long post there turbo, your space bar must have stuck. Let's say there are 20 pilots in Bird dogs town, lock down for us is ending tonight. So we all go for some dual with an instructor, would it not have been safer in relation to Covid if everyone continued to fly by themselves with no close contact with any strangers? 

[aro]

37 minutes ago, skippydiesel said:

I am behind the Gov on this. I hope they made the best decision at the time. Turned out to be wrong but that's just "how the cookie crumbles"

The FOI emails stuff that have been revealed in the last few days have been damning. The government delayed meeting with Pfizer for months while Victoria was in lockdown.

 

Morrison is calling the people saying that they should have met with them "hindsight hereos" but seriously, how hard is it to figure out that it would be a good idea to stay up to date with information from the vaccine manufacturers in the middle of a global pandemic?

[BirdDog]

30 minutes ago, Garfly said:

Clarification and references please BD.

(I'd love to prove our Aro wrong regarding pilots and critical thinking.   ;- )

It's all over the news man!

 

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/nsw-records-1542-new-cases-of-covid19-nine-deaths-after-announcing-lockdown-exit-plan/news-story/bf28c66b26e6d28330b8008ab78f488a

 

About half way down.

 

“All of these individuals had underlying health conditions, three were fully vaccinated,” deputy chief health officer Marianne Gale said.

 

“Three had (received) one dose of a Covid vaccine, and three were unvaccinated.

[skippydiesel]

33 minutes ago, BirdDog said:

I hope you are right Skip.  Saldy yesterday more people died Vaxed than unvaxed.  Let's hope that is not a trend!

Vaccination only reduces your chance of serious disease/death. It's not claimed to be 100% effective AND although the vulnerable will have a greater chance of survival, CV19 vaccination does not remove their initial vulnerability/co-morbidity.

 

If we were to reach 100% vaccination, all deaths would be people who had been vaccinated. Just means that they were on the edge anyhow and even a mild CV 19 might " tip them over".  

[BirdDog]

I am not sure we are ever going to reach 100% vaccination.   

[aro]

2 minutes ago, BirdDog said:

I am not sure we are ever going to reach 100% vaccination.   

True... but for other diseases we get to 95% so we can expect to go a lot further yet.

 

The important number is the percentage of people unvaccinated, so the gains go up quickly as more people are vaccinated. Going from 70 to 85 percent vaccination halves the number of unvaccinated people, from 30% to 15%. That is a big difference. From 85% to 95% would cut the number again by 2/3, to 1/6 of the 70% rate.

[facthunter]

Virtually no one has said we are ever going to get 100% but plenty see 70% of "whatever,"( not the total population,) as being what the "chosen" Institute says when it actually has many extra qualifications. As usual, you are being conned by not getting the full story from Scotty from marketing.  In Truth NSW has LOST IT. and is now indulging in a desperate Gamble to cover up. I feel really worried and sorry for the people there. I think it's going to be a rough ride

[BirdDog]

So here is a question... and I am just playing devil's advocte here...

The Gov is saying if you are not Vaxed, you can't go to the pub.  Why?   If vaccinated people can still carry it, and still pass it on - what's the difference?  

 

[Garfly]

1 minute ago, BirdDog said:

So here is a question... and I am just playing devil's advocte here...

The Gov is saying if you are not Vaxed, you can't go to the pub.  Why?   If vaccinated people can still carry it, and still pass it on - what's the difference?  

 

Quanta + probability?

[aro]

2 minutes ago, BirdDog said:

If vaccinated people can still carry it, and still pass it on - what's the difference?

Vaccinated people are less likely to be infected, less likely to pass it on, less likely to end up in hospital, less likely to die.

 

Same logic: What is the point of changing my oil, if engines can still fail? In fact, statistics show that most engines that fail had had their oil changed.

[RossK]

4 minutes ago, BirdDog said:

So here is a question... and I am just playing devil's advocte here...

The Gov is saying if you are not Vaxed, you can't go to the pub.  Why?   If vaccinated people can still carry it, and still pass it on - what's the difference?  

 

Because if you have C19 and are unvaxed, you are far more likley to pass it on than someone who is vaxed.

[BirdDog]

1 minute ago, aro said:

Vaccinated people are less likely to be infected, less likely to pass it on, less likely to end up in hospital, less likely to die.

 

Same logic: What is the point of changing my oil, if engines can still fail? In fact, statistics show that most engines that fail had had their oil changed.

 

Less likely is very different to can't!

If you are sitting at the pub across the table from someone with it for 3 hours, I am pretty sure we know the outcome!

 

[Garfly]

3 minutes ago, BirdDog said:

 

Less likely is very different to can't!

If you are sitting at the pub across the table from someone with it for 3 hours, I am pretty sure we know the outcome!

 

Yep, so a real good reason not to get vaxxed?

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2021 by Garfly

[KRviator]

Quote

Why do I win the Chocy Frog?

You picked the cause yesterday. It's meant as a compliment (for those that never had teachers - or SAAA MPC instructors - giving out Freddo's when you get the right answer). 😉
 

Quote

One last thing is… after you swapped tanks did you go back and replicate the problem? Because it may well have been a lock that sorted itself as you coincidentally changed tanks. 

I reckon that's exactly what's happened. Pump on, changed tanks & descended back towards the runway ( which cooled everything off) to the point it didn't happen again, and the subsequent circuits weren't at full power vs low power long enough to reheat things.

 

[BirdDog]

Again... just thinking out loud, and like a good aviation student, thinking about the what ifs.....


So here is the scene....  

100 people allowed in the pub.  Stats say... Less likely to get it and pass it on.  So what... 1 in 100 chance?  Cool... so now we have one person in the room with the other 99 that is infected with Covid.  Then what?  The other 99 now also have the possibility of getting it, and now taking it elsewhere!

Do we know if this is a REAL possibility - Israel will say it is.  Just doesn't make sense to me.  But maybe I overthink things too much!


 

[Garfly]

1 minute ago, BirdDog said:

Do we know if this is a REAL possibility - Israel will say it is.  Just doesn't make sense to me.  But maybe I overthink things too much!
 

I don't think overthinking is much of a problem at all.

 

BTW  congratulations on the chocolate frog!! Well spotted.

(The issues addressed in KRV's posts are far too important to be buried in the thickets of this thread.  ;- )

[RossK]

3 minutes ago, BirdDog said:

 

Less likely is very different to can't!

If you are sitting at the pub across the table from someone with it for 3 hours, I am pretty sure we know the outcome!

 

Yes, but it's reducing the risks;

If you're vaxed

less likely to pass it on, less likely to get sick, less likley to require hospitalistion, less likley to require ventilation and less likely to die.

 

Israel still have 80% of deaths being fully vaxed, but the infected mortality rate has dropped from 4% to 1.5%

 

Oh, and by the way, I'm at the stage where I'm seriously considering ignoring the rules and going for a fly.

I can fill up my jerries at the local servo when I fill my car, drive to the airfield, fly, top up the tanks, and come home.

I will have had zero interaction with anyone else or any other equipement than I would in my normal weekly routine. And to top it off, recreational fishing is allowed, so why not aviation!

[turboplanner]

14 minutes ago, Thruster88 said:

Bit of a long post there turbo, your space bar must have stuck. Let's say there are 20 pilots in Bird dogs town, lock down for us is ending tonight. So we all go for some dual with an instructor, would it not have been safer in relation to Covid if everyone continued to fly by themselves with no close contact with any strangers? 

Tried to get rid of it three times and gave up.

Just separating it into two parts Covid and recency;

This year we are dealing with the Delta strain which has an explosive spread and has frequently transferred over a distance of 3 metres or more in hallways and out in the open. One infected person infected others from memory in Longreach, Townsville and Cairns on the one day. An infected truck driver infected a string of towns through Melbourne, Victoria, SA and WA. As an example of spread in remote places, once we forded Coopers Creek and drove along the northern bank to the dig tree parking under a nearby tree where my daughter, feeling unwell threw up on the ground. About as remote as you can get, probably no one on that spot for many years. I shifted the car so she wouldn't bring it back in and we went to look at the Dig Tree. To my embarrassment when we were walking back I saw a woman wiping her shoe. They'd driven to the exact same spot, so even in the outback someone can come along infected.

 

Of the 20 pilot example you gave nd assuming none are Commercial because the State is taking the risk on them, during the current Melbourne lockdown conditions they can't fly, either because they are locked into a 5 km radius, which is a Contact Tracing tool to keep infected people in "pools" until they can be isolated, or because of the potential touchpoints on the way to the airfield, at the airfield or on the way home. Some people might say "I am getting into my car on my property, driving to the airport, which has no gate, going to my hangar where I open my doors with an electronic switch, get in my aircraft, alone, fly for an hour, and reverse the procedure to go home." There would be no virus transfer last year but a possible transfer of the Delta strain if someone had walked past or come across and asked to borrow a pump etc. However, we ony hae to take the luris statements of about 20 people on this site last year and this year boasting about what they do, and we know that a large percentage would take a mate from across town, drop in for fuel, get a coffee, and meet three or four mates at the airport. The Health Dpertments know people's habit so they shut this down totally to get a clean contact circle in order to open up again.

 

Currency

Given that the above is likely to happen and the CHO is trying to prevent multiple deaths, flying for practice in lockdowns isn't  infection-safe anyway, so flying for currency isn't an option.

 

During the non-currency period no one is flying anyway so being non current isn't an issue.

For the most part, the CFI or Instructor may only require a couple of touch and goes to OK you for solo anyway.

It's only if he finds your skills have eroded that you might get a bit longer constraint, so not really a big deal.

 

However, this is a big issue for RAA Ltd, because they are operating as a Self Administering Organisation and carry the legal liability for operations where they issue certificates, yet are nowhere to be seen on issues like this, with guidance, and on-field compliance auditing. It should be easy for a PIC to know exactly what the procedure is after x weeks away from an aircraft; the control is certainly there in GA, and should be in place in RA.

 

 

 

 

[facthunter]

On  the recency thing any decent Instructor will pick up any issues quite quickly.  Flying U/ls is not something where you have a lot of engineering and stuff to bone up on. You never forget how to ride a pushbike but you might wobble a bit at the start. With a plane, Your landings might be a bit misjudged. IF I haven't flown a c-180 for few years I'm pretty likely to muck up the first landing but I know that and will be ready to go around so that makes it safe(er).  (if embarrassing.

 If you aren't recent take things slowly and double check. Put more work into the circuit because before you were in practice and probably slack(er). Nev