NSW Boeing 737 Fire Bomber

[Jim McDowall]

Re the burning of roadside vegetation

 

There are other methods of control, eg slashing, sprays, grazing where possible. Outright prevention to undertake these works by adjacent landholders seeking to protect themselves and the community at large is prevented by law in SA and robustly policed by local councils.

 

As for burnt trees - we are still trying to get the council to remove dead burnt trees that are obviously primed to fall across roads (had the council out complaining about this - they said no problem- trees remained. a few days later one fell overnight and a neighbor drove into it in the early morning fog. Local government greenies should be chained to their desks and made to watch apocalyptic end of world movies and let the real stewards of the environment get on with life. That way we will all be happy.

 

 

[kgwilson]

When the sh!t hits the fan as it is right now, everyone who is not being affected has the right answer. There are  those screaming that the greens have stopped controlled burnoffs so they are the problem, Morrison & the ultra conservatives who do not believe there is any change happening and just divert the issue to "lets all help the people being affected" we can talk about everything else later etc. Nutters like Barnaby saying the people who died must have voted Green. Personally I think they are dead wrong and so do 98% of the Worlds Scientists as well as all the former heads of the RFS and Fire Brigades in the country. The existing Firies bosses can't speak as they work for the current governments, State & Federal. If we can't speak of it now and have been muzzled or shouted down before, when does the conversation begin?

 

I was in Noosa recently & had dinner with an old friend. During the conversation the subject was broached. He was convinced that there was a NASA report that stated that it was the Earths erratic orbit & we were currently closer to the sun. It took around 5 seconds to find this was completely erroneous from checking the NASA website.

 

16 year old Greta Thunberg said at the UN climate conference (which Morrison refused to attend) 'We are at the beginning of a mass extinction and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of endless economic growth". The conservatives of the world tore her to shreds, called her a retard etc. Why the hell are they frightened of a 16 year old Swedish kid with Aspergers. The answer is quite simple, they want her to be wrong but deep down they fear that she may very well be right.

 

 

[jetjr]

Few suggest the climate isn't variable or changing, the key problem is that many believe that theres something the AU govt can do about it.

 

They cant,  however they can spend most of our countries wealth trying

 

 

[Methusala]

"When you tally the greenhouse gases from the fossil fuels exported by each country, Australia's coal and gas exports total over 1.1bn tonnes of carbon dioxide – more than double its domestic emissions – making it the world's third largest exporter of fossil carbon, behind only Saudi Arabia and Russia."

 

I suppose that it all depends on your view of whether there is a "climate emergency". I will trust the opinion of the great majority of scientific opinion over the hydro-carbon industry. I don't enjoy the endless summer of reduced rainfall, rampant bushfires and famine. As the old saw states,"You pays your money and you takes your chances".

 

 

[Student Pilot]

Our Prime Minister along with his happy clapper church have been praying for rain. Maybe they aren't praying loud enough? 

Still many aircraft in Victoria not being used on fires in NSW and QLD

 

 

[kgwilson]

Their beliefs are rooted in the fundamentalist view that the earth is 7000 years old man walked with the dinosaurs & because god created the earth man does not have it in his power to destroy it. We in Australia can't fix it, nor can any single country. It will take the combined will of every government and corporate organisation on the planet to begin the recovery with the support of every human being. We have to start and it is people who are now rising up. Nothing has changed since the lip service paid to the Kyoto protocol in 1997, in fact it has got worse.

 

 

[facthunter]

Farmers are becoming aware of the changes . They all keep records  and know exactly what's going on, Vilifying a particular group isn't the answer. There's usually a beter or even RIGHT way to do things. Burning off and using weed killers modifies the environment. What you kill is replaced by SOMETHING that is not controlled  Often opportunistic weeds, thistles hawthorne and wild plum and  and fast growing wattles crappy eucalypts that grow too close to each other and tall highly inflammable grasses imported from other places. Rubbish growing along roadsides is a menace as inevitably some of it falls and blocks the road  during fire events and the fuel moves the fires to other places and the old stumps  and hollow trees make copious embers for days. The attack on science that is now part of this nonsense is particularly alarming as in other matters we DO use those whose job it is to know  like medicine  and bridge and tall building construction etc Why trust the motives of newspaper proprietors who profit from peddling fear and making wars. Nev

 

 

[Litespeed]

Scomo the schmo, our prime Munster.

 

Not just a religious fairy worshiper but a Pentecostal but.

 

Religions right wing happy clappers who believe not only is greed good but godly for them. So believe they have a right to exploit the globe and everyone else.

 

Who did he want to take to the states on his trip, when he went to a Pratt box factory Instead of the U N?

 

Brian Houston of the millionaire Hillsong church as his spiritual advisor. Who is also still to be charged for covering his dad abuse of children, as per the royal commission.

 

Even the Whitehouse said No farkin way.

 

Looks pretty clear Scomo does not care if the future and children get farked over.

 

Its all OK, folks shutup and pray.

 

The Munster loves quiet obedient Australians.

 

 

[Methusala]

Last night on The ABC 730 we saw the types who are attracted to Morrison. Light weight non-thinkers who can't see through the flim-flam of a practiced advertising con man.

 

 

[onetrack]

If you go back through the centuries, you will find reams of news stories about heatwaves and droughts and temperature variations. The Maunder Minimum, also known as the Little Ice Age, affected Europe (including the U.K.) and North America, terribly between 1645 and 1715, with constant frosts occurring in regions that had never recorded frosts before, and affecting food production adversely.

 

Every time there's a heatwave or a drought, the media screech about a "new record". But if you go back through the old newspapers on Trove, you'll find savage heatwaves and extended droughts are common in Australia.

 

The weather and climate runs in cycles. There are short term cycles and there are long term cycles. The engineers and insurers talk of "1 in 100 year", "1 in 250 year", and "1 in 500 year" and "1 in 1000 year", floods or cyclones.

 

These people recognise that extreme weather and climate events happen on an irregular, but cyclical basis. Those cycles overlap, and when adverse weather cycles overlap, there are extreme weather and climate events.

 

I am of the firm opinion that no scientist or any group of scientists, has any good grasp or accurate measurement of the total number of inputs that combine to form our weather or our climate.

 

The inputs into weather and climate are so vast and wide-ranging, and many are unable to be measured with any degree of consistent accuracy, it's a joke that these scientists think they can brag that they have the complete knowledge and accurate measurements, and know the full range of climate inputs, to be able to confidently claim they know exactly what is happening to our climate.

 

Even now, the scientists are still coming up with more and more factors, that govern weather and climate, that they previously didn't realise, had a major input into weather and climate.

 

Average Wave Height is one of these measurements. They've suddenly discovered that AWH has an effect on weather and climate, and the AWH has been increasing for the last 30 years - and they don't exactly know why.

 

They claim the increased AWH is the result of higher average wind speeds (particularly in the Southern Ocean) - and blame that on CC.

 

Yet, they then turn around and state, that to claim their wind and AWH measurements are "accurate", is "optimistic", and "more research is needed".

 

One volcanic event can change the climate for an extended period. Krakatoa changed the entire worlds climate for at least 5 years.

 

In addition, the "climate change" group has only been measuring "climate change" for a period of maybe 30 to 40 years? In the terms of the length of our planets climate existence (the scientists have gone back a reported 650,000 years), their climate change measurements and recordings, is the equivalent of examining a microscopic piece of cell tissue, and then trying to tell us, that they can produce a full and complete image of the animal it came from.

 

Australia is a land of extremes. We'd be better off, learning how to live with, and adjust to those extremes, rather than throwing countless squillions at trying to change the climate - a project with about as predictable a result, as King Canute trying to hold back the waves.

 

 

[Methusala]

If you go back through the centuries, you will find reams of news stories about heatwaves and droughts and temperature variations.

 

If you have an active brain you will be able to find (with a small effort) that cores recovered from glaciers reveal an accurate climate record.

 

'Scientists use the chemistry of the water molecules in the ice layers to see how the temperature has varied through the millennia. These ice layers also trap tiny bubbles from the ancient atmosphere, allowing us to measure prehistoric CO₂ levels directly.' { The Conversation, 19 Jun 2017 }

 

Study of this scientific evidence shows that the co2 levels in the atmosphere are at almost unprecedented levels but  also that the co2 concentration has increased extremely rapidly.

 

If the Daily Terrorgraph is your preferred source of information maybe it is time to broaden your reading. Honestly, one can find all sorts of fairy tales. The truth is out there.

 

 

[Litespeed]

Careful there Methulsa, 

 

Next you will expect us to think critically. 

 

You know knowledge and science is scary? 

 

Best just to shove heads in the sand and wait for Schmo the Munster to inform us from the rear.

 

 

[facthunter]

Farmers are becoming aware of the changes . They all keep records  and know exactly what's going on, Vilifying a particular group isn't the answer. There's usually a better or even RIGHT way to do things. Burning off and using weed killers modifies the environment. What you kill is replaced by SOMETHING that is not controlled  Often opportunistic weeds, thistles hawthorne and wild plum and  and fast growing wattles crappy eucalypts that grow too close to each other and tall highly inflammable grasses imported from other places. Rubbish growing along roadsides is a menace as inevitably some of it falls and blocks the road  during fire events and the fuel moves the fires to other places and the old stumps  and hollow trees make copious embers for days. The attack on science that is now part of this nonsense is particularly alarming as in other matters we DO use those whose job it is to know  like medicine  and bridge and tall building construction etc Why trust the motives of newspaper proprietors who profit from peddling fear and making wars. Nev

 

 

[turboplanner]

Farmers are becoming aware of the changes . They all keep records  and know exactly what's going on.

 

Yes they do. About a decade ago we were advised to stop sewing rye grass and plant demeta fescue to suit the higher, global warming, temperatures.

 

What happens to be waving its head on our paddocks this year? Rye grass.

 

 

[Methusala]

Only shows that rye grass is more adaptable to conditions than your agronomist. Says nothing new about ACC. 

 

 

[Thruster88]

As a crop farmer in central NSW I have always been aware of the weather, it determines  if you get paid for the year or not. 2016 was an exceptional wet year for most of NSW, the grass and crops grew tall, the trees put on lots of leaves. Since then the rain has been well below normal for most of the state, a very wide spread drought. The leaves fall, everything gets dry, bush fires are bad. I do believe in climate change but don't think it is happening yet. I have no complaints about being a farmer.    

 

 

[spacesailor]

"climate change" Has been with us for 40,00 years.

 

It is accelerating, but IS it just the world getting back to the tropical, Lush state the dinosaurs knew in their day.

 

today's Australian forest are not going to make any coal deposits, like the Old forest did.

 

spacesailor 

 

 

[onetrack]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federation_Drought

 

 

[Garfly]

 

 

 

[turboplanner]

Some very good fire information in this thread, but we are drifting over to the twilight zone.

 

The science of Global Warming is far from settled, but in any case Global Warming doesn't have much to do with bushfires other than the original IPCC claim that we would be seeing more and more intense storms, which could help more than hinder us.

 

For three or four months every year the fuel load is dry enough and warm enough to take out houses. What it needs is someone to light a fire accidentally or deliberately (or in some cases other sources like lightning).

 

In fire events where there is a high temperature and a strong wind, the fuel load becomes irrelevent because the fire front is travelling above the fuel load at the speed of the wind lighting a new front several kilometres ahead of the main fire (and claimed 30 -40 km in the current fires).

 

In past fires, whole valleys where there is evaporation from Eucalypts, have had aerial explosions which lit the whole valley.

 

There's a lot more to know about fires than what fits on social media posts.

 

The degree of destruction follows the weather conditions on the day the fire starts until the day it is put out.

 

An example is this week a youth lit a fire(s) in NSW which burnt out 36 structures. The youth was the factor, not global warming.

 

This morning, we are told, a new fire in NSW was lit by a man who decided to back- burn to save his Cannabis crop.

 

As traumatic as it is for the homes and lives which have been lost in the current NSW and QLD fires, they are dwarfed by some of the really big fires.

 

In the Black Thursday fires of 1851, 5 million hectares were burnt. The temperature was 47 degrees C

 

On Red Tuesday, February 1891, 260,000 hectares were burnt

 

On Black Friday January 13, 1939, 2 million hectares were burnt.

 

The temperature was 45.6 degrees and there was a strong northerly wind.

 

These towns were completely destroyed:

 

·        Woods Point

 

·        Narbethong

 

·        Noojee

 

·        Hill End (never rebuilt)

 

·        Nayook West (never rebuilt)

 

69 sawmills were destroyed

 

650 buildings were destroyed

 

71 people died

 

Ash from the fires fell in New Zealand

 

A Royal Commission found the cause was careless burning combined with a heatwave.

 

Two days later, the 15th, even with the limited fire fighting equipment available, rain fell and all the fires were out.

 

 

[kgwilson]

The average temperature of the planet has warmed by about 1 degree Celsius since the Industrial revolution began around 1750. Various sources  have the figure at 0.9 degrees to 1.2 degrees so 1 degree is a conservative average. It took 2 million years to warm 5 degrees so with the help of Man what would most likely have taken 400,000 years has taken just 268 years. It is wrong to say the drought and the bushfires are caused by climate change but it is a contributing factor and all the statistics show a quickening trend. As with all trends there are fluctuations and there will be cooler, hotter, wetter and dryer periods some with catastrophic consequences as pointed out by Turbo. 1 degree doesn't sound like much but it has a massive global effect. This year the high pressure areas have continued to hang around the mid latitudes when in a normal year they move to higher latitudes. The result this year and to a lesser degree over the past couple of years is that mid latitudes are drier and high latitudes are wetter than normal.

 

The level of dryness has come to the fore with the fires in NSW & QLD. Ancient rainforest has burned for the first time in human history. Rainforest was always a buffer to bushfires as the amount of moisture they contained prevented the fire from burning. Not so this year.

 

 

[facthunter]

The TREND is what matters . Warming oceans affect weather patterns. The WET in the North is less reliable. Cyclone intensity and areas affected are changing and the reason is known.  These LOWS now go further south ..    Warm air holds a lot more moisture and the moisture in cyclones by Latent heat of vapourisation, is what determines their intensity. They die out over land as the moisture isn't there to keep the energy up.

 

     It's a bit esoteric to claim that a particular event is NOT a result of climate changing, Perhaps technically so, but it's hiding the truth. A lot of changes  indicates TRENDS. The greenhouse gas effect has been known for ages. The current figure is measured independently at points over the world. None show a reduction No new glaciers are forming . Tibet Ice is diminishing( The 3rd POLE) and when that continues  about 1/3rd of the world's population will have to  fight for the diminishing  water supply and  food production will rapidly decrease and Chaos will reign essentially right on our doorstep. China has about half of the dams in the world within it's borders. Dams all silt and are not long term a good idea. They often deny downstream people the water they used to get Egypt ,Mexico, Israel and plenty of other

 

places are examples .Fresh water will be the new GOLD/ OIL that wars start over.  Nev

 

 

[Student Pilot]

DC10 arrived Sydney this morning, at 45,000 litres it's 3 times the load of any of the large tankers in Oz

 

 

[facthunter]

Must be able to find enough water somewhere.  Nev

 

 

[turboplanner]

The TREND is what matters . Warming oceans affect weather patterns. The WET in the North is less reliable. Cyclone intensity and areas affected are changing and the reason is known.  These LOWS now go further south ..    Warm air holds a lot more moisture and the moisture in cyclones by Latent heat of vapourisation, is what determines their intensity. They die out over land as the moisture isn't there to keep the energy up.

 

     It's a bit esoteric to claim that a particular event is NOT a result of climate changing, Perhaps technically so, but it's hiding the truth. A lot of changes  indicates TRENDS. The greenhouse gas effect has been known for ages. The current figure is measured independently at points over the world. None show a reduction No new glaciers are forming . Tibet Ice is diminishing( The 3rd POLE) and when that continues  about 1/3rd of the world's population will have to  fight for the diminishing  water supply and  food production will rapidly decrease and Chaos will reign essentially right on our doorstep. China has about half of the dams in the world within it's borders. Dams all silt and are not long term a good idea. They often deny downstream people the water they used to get Egypt ,Mexico, Israel and plenty of other

 

places are examples .Fresh water will be the new GOLD/ OIL that wars start over.  Nev

 

I WONDERED who that was stumbling along behind the kids marching about the end of the world. I'll see what interesting gems I can pull out from the early predictions of the IPCC which you are quoting, compared to now.

 

El Nino and La Nina cycles have more of a bearing on our fire risk than global warming because the Oscillations and depths of warm/cold, wet/dry range a lot more than say a mean average increase of 1%